Next round of severe weather 7th May Onwards?

[KWT]

I'd also say there is at least a reasonable risk of a high risk warning coming out, the models do suggest a very agressive set-up could develop.

Going to be full of chasers with this event now we are getting towards mid May.

[Mindi]

I agree! This looks to be a huge svr wx outbreak tomorrow! I would not be a bit suprised to see a high risk issued in the morning. Any other thoughts??

[wx247]

Hey Mindi... conditions continue to look like an outbreak of severe weather, including tornadoes, will take place tmrw. The NWS in Springfield, MO has placed the NW parts of its county warning area under an extreme level for Monday afternoon and night. That is the highest level possible.

[johnmarkthom]

Hey Mindi... conditions continue to look like an outbreak of severe weather, including tornadoes, will take place tmrw. The NWS in Springfield, MO has placed the NW parts of its county warning area under an extreme level for Monday afternoon and night. That is the highest level possible.

Wow! Upgraded from Significant in the Morning HWO.

[wx247]

Yeah... here is the graphic:



We are going to try and chase tomorrow. We shall see how far we have to go before we are in the line of fire. From the looks of things, we won't have to travel that many miles...

[Mindi]

I agree wx247, looks like the svr wx will be right in our area or just slightly to our west.

[CrazyC83]

How does this compare to May 3, 1999?

[Dave]

NWS Springfield MO Severe Weather Web Briefing:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=webbriefing

[KWT]

So is that extrene warning pretty much the same as a high risk then?

Certainly could become a very interesting set-up thats for sure!

[johnmarkthom]

So is that extrene warning pretty much the same as a high risk then?

Certainly could become a very interesting set-up thats for sure!

Their day two extreme level, I believe is defined as 45% or greater severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Tomorrows Graphical HWO will break it down further into tornado, wind and hail. Should be interesting.

[Mindi]

I agree John. Tomorrow's breakdown will be very interesting!

[RL3AO]

I've heard a few people say its the best set up in the Plains since the Greensburg tornado night.

[CrazyC83]

I've heard a few people say its the best set up in the Plains since the Greensburg tornado night.

Looking at Twister-data.com, the instability is forecast to be OFF THE CHARTS. Across a good section of Oklahoma, the EHI could be in double digits, the CAPE well over 2000 (peaking around 4000), the LI's around -14 and helicity well above 1000 as well.

The only thing that could stop a major to extreme tornado outbreak is if the cap were to hold up.

[KWT]

Yep I agree, its very interesting to see another set-up that probably warrents a High risk warning!

[Mindi]

I don't see how the cap could possibly hold together. There is just way to much to blow it away!!!

[CrazyC83]

Yep I agree, its very interesting to see another set-up that probably warrents a High risk warning!

I wouldn't jump to a high risk right away though. The cap seems fairly solid at least well into the afternoon based on models. I'd start out with a strongly-worded moderate.

[KWT]

Oh yeah I'd hold a moderate until there is evidence the cap has actually broken, but I think once all is done, this will end up being a high risk.

[RL3AO]

Will we see 60% tornado probs tomorrow?

[CrazyC83]

Will we see 60% tornado probs tomorrow?

Doubtful unless an outbreak of insane proportions is well underway.

[6SpeedTA95]

How does this compare to May 3, 1999?

Frankly, at this point, its better. I almost hate to say that because tomorrow will almost certainly not be that good as far as chasing is concerned. Keep in mind May3rd at day 2 was a slight risk. It was upgraded to MDT that morning and high risk I believe at 11:30am.

Honestly, I kinda have a bad/jittery feeling about tomorrow. Three large metro areas are firmly in the MDT risk area much of which will go high risk tomorrow.

OKC has 1.3 million people.
Tulsa 980,000 people.
Wichita about 750,000 people.