Next round of severe weather 7th May Onwards?

[CrazyC83]

Probs are 70/40. The main threat to the east will probably get a PDS watch around 3 pm.

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN COLORADO
WESTERN KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
GOODLAND KANSAS TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MEDICINE LODGE
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KS IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. STRONG LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT THE RISK OF A
FEW TORNADOES. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART

[CrazyC83]

A bit premature IMO, but here it comes. If it is a long-lasting watch it should be PDS. Another possibility is a lower-prob watch now with an early expiry time (like 5 or 6 pm) then a PDS watch afterward.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101746Z - 101945Z

SIGNS FOR STORM INITIATION ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED. ONCE
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY...WITH AN INCREASING RISK
FOR TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH WILL
BE REQUIRED...PERHAPS WITHIN THE HOUR.

AS A 90+ KT CYCLONIC...WESTERLY...500 MB JET STREAK CONTINUES TO
NOSE EASTWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENING/MIXING PROGRESSES TO THE WEST
OF THE DRY LINE...DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM APPEARS LIKELY TO
SUPPORT A RAPID DRY LINE SURGE ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT STRONGEST
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
FOCUSED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AXIS...ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THIS FORCING...COUPLED WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION AS LOW/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND LOWER/MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECT INTO
THE REGION...CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 19-21Z.

ALTHOUGH 50+ KT 850 MB FLOW WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT VEERED...TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MAY REMAIN
BACKED...AT A SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT... WITHIN A BROAD
RETREATING WARM FRONTAL ZONE. THIS PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN LARGE
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE... SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOSCYCLONES AND TORNADOES. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS CONCERNING HOW QUICKLY STORMS WILL BECOME TORNADIC. BUT
TORNADO POTENTIAL CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE PRIOR TO
00Z...AS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS/ NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... VERY LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST VIGOROUS
STORMS.

..KERR.. 05/10/2010


ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 36579927 37259868 37619763 36829624 35969628 35709689
35649767 35619848 35829878 36579927

[CrazyC83]

Cells already starting to develop near Dodge City.

[BlueIce]

New Mesoscale discussion up.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101746Z - 101945Z

SIGNS FOR STORM INITIATION ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED. ONCE
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY...WITH AN INCREASING RISK
FOR TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH WILL
BE REQUIRED...PERHAPS WITHIN THE HOUR.

AS A 90+ KT CYCLONIC...WESTERLY...500 MB JET STREAK CONTINUES TO
NOSE EASTWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENING/MIXING PROGRESSES TO THE WEST
OF THE DRY LINE...DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM APPEARS LIKELY TO
SUPPORT A RAPID DRY LINE SURGE ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT STRONGEST
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
FOCUSED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AXIS...ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THIS FORCING...COUPLED WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION AS LOW/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND LOWER/MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECT INTO
THE REGION...CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 19-21Z.

ALTHOUGH 50+ KT 850 MB FLOW WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT VEERED...TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MAY REMAIN
BACKED...AT A SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT... WITHIN A BROAD
RETREATING WARM FRONTAL ZONE. THIS PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN LARGE
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE... SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOSCYCLONES AND TORNADOES. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS CONCERNING HOW QUICKLY STORMS WILL BECOME TORNADIC. BUT
TORNADO POTENTIAL CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE PRIOR TO
00Z...AS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS/ NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... VERY LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST VIGOROUS
STORMS.

[Bunkertor]

Current map and MD 507

[Ntxwx]

As expected, winds becoming strong from the south. Looking for activity to pick up around Dodge City.

[CrazyC83]

NWS Springfield to hold a conference call in about 40 minutes.

[Bunkertor]

WFUS53 KGLD 101823
TORGLD
KSC203-101915-
/O.NEW.KGLD.TO.W.0017.100510T1823Z-100510T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
123 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WICHITA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 118 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
SOUTH OF LEOTI. A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME! DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED
THIS TORNADIC STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN WICHITA COUNTY.

[CrazyC83]

Watch coming out until 10 pm. Should be PDS.

[johnmarkthom]

NWS Springfield to hold a conference call in about 40 minutes.

didn't they use to broadcast those online or via the NOAA weather radio?

[CrazyC83]

NWS Springfield to hold a conference call in about 40 minutes.

didn't they use to broadcast those online or via the NOAA weather radio?

I believe they still do.

[CrazyC83]

Probs are 95/80. PDS as expected.

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
FORT SILL OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF WICHITA KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...

DISCUSSION...AN DANGEROUS ENVIRONMENT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN KS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZES AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN
OK...THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH THE
THREAT OF STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. VERY LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.


...HART

[CrazyC83]

The other probabilities in that watch are also impressive: Wind 80/70, hail 95/90. ALL of them are in the "high" category, which is rare.

[Ntxwx]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

TORNADO WATCH 147 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC003-011-015-017-019-027-031-033-037-039-043-045-047-049-051-
053-059-067-071-073-075-081-083-085-087-093-099-103-107-109-111-
113-117-119-125-129-133-137-141-143-147-149-151-153-110300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0147.100510T1825Z-100511T0300Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA BLAINE CADDO
CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND
COMANCHE COTTON CREEK
CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS
GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY
GRANT HARPER JEFFERSON
KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA
LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE
MAJOR MCCLAIN MURRAY
NOBLE OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA
OKMULGEE OSAGE PAWNEE
PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE ROGER MILLS
SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN
TULSA WASHINGTON WASHITA
WOODS WOODWARD

[CrazyC83]

SPC mesoanalysis: instability and dynamics are OFF THE CHARTS. I'd put a 45% tornado risk in there at 2000Z. This seems reminiscent of May 3, 1999.

[Bunkertor]

WFUS53 KGLD 101823
TORGLD
KSC203-101915-
/O.NEW.KGLD.TO.W.0017.100510T1823Z-100510T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
123 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WICHITA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 118 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
SOUTH OF LEOTI. A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME! DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED
THIS TORNADIC STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN WICHITA COUNTY.

[CrazyC83]

Get used to those, since I think we will see Tornado Emergencies come out today.

[BlueIce]

Oklahoma City is now clearing out. Very rapidly moving low cloud cover is moving from the SSW.

[Bunkertor]

WFUS53 KGLD 101838
TORGLD
KSC109-101945-
/O.NEW.KGLD.TO.W.0019.100510T1838Z-100510T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
138 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 136 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTH OF RUSSELL SPRINGS...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUSSELL SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3871 10148 3902 10148 3905 10147 3905 10110
3870 10111
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 220DEG 31KT 3875 10121

$$

/KILLINGSWORTH

[srainhoutx]

I have been watching the latest data and am becoming very concerned for OK and KS. I just hope we do not see a repeat of May 1999. Stay Safe folks. Looks like a long evening.