Joe Bastardi: 16-18 named storms, top 10 year

[Blown Away]

Ok, so we are expecting negative NAO conditions for the 2010 season and negative NAO usually pushes the BH more north and east. The info Big A posted suggested there are times when there is negative NAO and storms track more west towards land rather than recurving to our east. Is there any prediction on how the negative NAO conditions will affect the 2010 season? JB is calling for so many landfalls and his illustrations suggest more storms moving west rather than recurving to our east and I'm trying to understand how he gets that w/ negative NAO predicted??

[RL3AO]

Well, if you have 18 storms, and an above average percentage recurve, thats still a lot of landfalls. Even if you only get 3 storms in the Caribbean, theres a pretty good chance that all three will be major hurricanes that hit somewhere.

[OuterBanker]

I think that one of the most important aspects of his forecast is that he predicts 15 storms west of 55. As well as eight landfalls, five being hurricanes. As other prognosticators start to chime in the media will eventually catch on. So far not much hype from the public media. Of course that will change as we approach June 1.

One other note. If anyone has been monitoring Metosat 8 lately you will notice how systems coming off the African coast are not only surviving but intensifying as the travel west (albeit at too low lats). Last year even into late June everything emerging went poof. I think this year will truly be interesting.

[KWT]

Well, if you have 18 storms, and an above average percentage recurve, thats still a lot of landfalls. Even if you only get 3 storms in the Caribbean, theres a pretty good chance that all three will be major hurricanes that hit somewhere.

Exactly, and even if they do recurve those types of systems are always going to be a threat...esp the ones that emerge further south.

As I said before, once you get intothe 15-16 range you have to be increasingly lucky not to get one large landfalling system somewhere in the basin.

[Blown Away]

Well, if you have 18 storms, and an above average percentage recurve, thats still a lot of landfalls. Even if you only get 3 storms in the Caribbean, theres a pretty good chance that all three will be major hurricanes that hit somewhere.

I understand the more storms out there the higher the probability a few will find land. I want to understand how JB is calling for so many landfalls and his illustrations suggest more storms moving west rather than recurving to our east w/ negative NAO predicted??

[KWT]

It all depends on *where* the -ve NAO signature set-ups. For example you can get a -ve NAO from so many different set-ups.

For example you get a -ve NAO with a big Mid-Atlantic upper high ridging northwards trying to connect with a -ve AO. You can also have a -ve NAO with a big upper high over Scandinavia heading out and a strong Bermuda High still in place...and then you can have a set-up similar to the one I first mentioned, but based in the E.Canada and arching up towards the NAO region.

Just depends really on how it all sets-up...interestingly though alot of the big landfalls in the last 8 years or so in the basin have occured during +ve spells looking at the old charts.

[wxman57]

Well, if you have 18 storms, and an above average percentage recurve, thats still a lot of landfalls. Even if you only get 3 storms in the Caribbean, theres a pretty good chance that all three will be major hurricanes that hit somewhere.

I understand the more storms out there the higher the probability a few will find land. I want to understand how JB is calling for so many landfalls and his illustrations suggest more storms moving west rather than recurving to our east w/ negative NAO predicted??

Not necessarily. Could easily have 5-6 Cape Verde storms form and recurve well east of the U.S. That would be most of them. Most development will probably occur well west of the Cape Verde area. It's the storms that develop in the Caribbean and/or those that develop during periods when the Bermuda High is stronger or the east coast trof is a bit weaker that we have to watch out for here.

[cycloneye]

57,I see that the NE Caribbean is bulls eye but I ask about one island,Puerto Rico. Any good news?

[SETXWXLADY]

Ok, so we are expecting negative NAO conditions for the 2010 season and negative NAO usually pushes the BH more north and east. The info Big A posted suggested there are times when there is negative NAO and storms track more west towards land rather than recurving to our east. Is there any prediction on how the negative NAO conditions will affect the 2010 season? JB is calling for so many landfalls and his illustrations suggest more storms moving west rather than recurving to our east and I'm trying to understand how he gets that w/ negative NAO predicted??

You have the negative NAO backwards. A negative NAO makes the Bh weaker but bigger and positioned farther south and west. Even though its weaker its still high pressure so storms will follow along the high in a westward motion until it reaches the western edge and either start to turn north or hit land before it makes the turn. Depending on where/how it's positioned. A positive NAO positions the BH farther north and east.

[RL3AO]

Some of you make it sound like everything will develop out past the islands. There will be tons of waves and disturbances that make it to the Caribbean before trying to develop.

[Blown Away]

Ok, so we are expecting negative NAO conditions for the 2010 season and negative NAO usually pushes the BH more north and east. The info Big A posted suggested there are times when there is negative NAO and storms track more west towards land rather than recurving to our east. Is there any prediction on how the negative NAO conditions will affect the 2010 season? JB is calling for so many landfalls and his illustrations suggest more storms moving west rather than recurving to our east and I'm trying to understand how he gets that w/ negative NAO predicted??

You have the negative NAO backwards. A negative NAO makes the Bh weaker but bigger and positioned farther south and west. Even though its weaker its still high pressure so storms will follow along the high in a westward motion until it reaches the western edge and either start to turn north or hit land before it makes the turn. Depending on where/how it's positioned. A positive NAO positions the BH farther north and east.

What is happening in the atmosphere that would cause the BH to be positioned more SW during negative NAO?

[SETXWXLADY]

Ok, so we are expecting negative NAO conditions for the 2010 season and negative NAO usually pushes the BH more north and east. The info Big A posted suggested there are times when there is negative NAO and storms track more west towards land rather than recurving to our east. Is there any prediction on how the negative NAO conditions will affect the 2010 season? JB is calling for so many landfalls and his illustrations suggest more storms moving west rather than recurving to our east and I'm trying to understand how he gets that w/ negative NAO predicted??

You have the negative NAO backwards. A negative NAO makes the Bh weaker but bigger and positioned farther south and west. Even though its weaker its still high pressure so storms will follow along the high in a westward motion until it reaches the western edge and either start to turn north or hit land before it makes the turn. Depending on where/how it's positioned. A positive NAO positions the BH farther north and east.

What is happening in the atmosphere that would cause the BH to be positioned more SW during negative NAO?

I'm not sure why it does that. I don't know if it's tied to the ENSO or not.

[cycloneye]

I dont know if it's true or not,but in another board someone said that JB will unvail tommorow his revised hurricane forecast.

[hurricanetrack]

He is putting together another in-depth video for tomorrow according to his pro account post today. Says that it's all pretty much the same- just strengthening his position on the big time season coming up.

[Blown Away]

Anybody seen that video yet? If you listen to his April 2010 video he talks about the general tracks being a little further south if the La Nina develops. It seems the chances of La Nina is improving and I'm not sure what a little further south means. Maybe instead of tracks towards the EC they go through the Caribbean into CA or WGOM???

[cycloneye]

Video not yet out but I have an excerpt and is scary at best when you read it.

Analogs. The top three that are sticking out are 1964, 1998 and 2005. Most of us don't remember 1964, the year of the Florida hurricane until 2004 came along and eclipsed it. But 1998, and especially 2005, are fresh in our minds. Both had El Ninos the previous winters, in 1998 it reversed to a strong La Nina. In 2005, it reversed to neutral. Both had major impact storms on the U.S., of course 2005 was legendary. While the 2008 season is not a prime analog, it is a good year to remember, as a practical basis for impact.

Water temperatures in the Atlantic basin are text book for a big year, and very close to both of the years mentioned here. The development of a marked Atlantic Ocean tripole, where cool water is north of 30 north in the Atlantic, very warm water in the tropical regions, promotes the needed large-scale upward motion in the tropical cyclogenesis areas for the heart of the season. In addition, the water, the way it is, encourages lower-than-normal pressures through May in the subtropics, which in turn slows the low-level easterlies and discourages the onslaught of dry air off AFRICA early in the year, like we saw last year, and jumped all over quickly. The May forecast pressure pattern is much more like '05 and '08 over the Atlantic.

The forecast pressure and rainfall patterns, and also SST's, are right in line with what I was thinking would happen. When I see objective modeling going toward what I believe, confirming, rather than questioning the forecast idea, it emboldens me in the forecast. The latest ECMWF pressure forecast for the hurricane season in the tropics is as bullish as last year was bearish... Quite frankly, it has extreme implications.

The U.S. generated CFS has been poor in anticipating before the obvious, the ENSO status, and it now is following toward the ideas laid out here from February, that a Nina was coming on. This has a bit of trickery, too, as stronger La Nina responses can mean a more southerly congregation of tracks of major storms, such as 2007. At this time, a comfortable blend toward a weak to moderate La Nina for the mid- and late hurricane season would favor the idea I have for enough northward and westward movement of storms to threaten the U.S. But as forecast, the La nina is coming on.

Which brings us to the congregation of tracks idea. We correctly forecast few tracks, more spread to the east and northeast for last year. In 2008, I made a big deal about a congregation of tracks near the Greater Antilles aimed at the southeastern U.S. The original map was off by 250 miles or so, that bundle of storm tracks was a bit farther west, and hence the big Gulf year. This year, I am sure we will see the tracks aimed in a bunching for the U.S. with a "spray both west and north. This means a big year for the Gulf to the Carolinas, with the Northeast being a major wild card, but most certainly in the mix. I am very concerned about one or two major storms breaking from the pack up the Eastern Seaboard, as the current colder PDO, warmer AMO decadal signals are reminiscent of the late '40s and '50s. Remember, had Hanna not gotten tangled up with Hispaniola, it probably would have been a Floydlike storm running the U.S. coast. The Gulf looks to be a busy place this year. The thing to take away from this is that I am opposite last year... and last year we had a summer that had heat only in Texas, with the rest of the nation cool, and a lack of tropical activity in areas that had been nailed the year before. This year, both summer and hurricane threats return in a large-scale, greater-than-average fashion.

A word about the "cool" Gulf. This will not last for long, and is reversing now. The LOOP current is plainly alive and kicking, and the Gulf temperatures will be normal to above normal. In addition, while cool water will remain in much of the central Atlantic between 30 and 40 north, the waters near the East Coast will be at or above normal as the warm AMO we are in is already showing its true colors with Gulf Stream temperatures well above normal. In fact, the flip to warm has shown up even more greatly in the last week.

I think we will be able to use the MJO to our benefit, as in 2008. Right now, it is organizing in a way that 40 days from now would have me concerned a storm develops, and I expect to see a June tropical cyclone threat this year, perhaps as many as two by July 4th.

[ColdFusion]

I think we will be able to use the MJO to our benefit, as in 2008.

Can anyone explain this statement from that excerpt for me?

[cycloneye]

I think we will be able to use the MJO to our benefit, as in 2008.

Can anyone explain this statement from that excerpt for me?

Really,I dont know the context of the sentence. But when the video comes out very soon,lets see if he explains the part of the MJO.

[KWT]

In other words it'll be an MJO based season like 2008, we will be able to have a good idea of upswings and slower periods of a season. That'd be my best guess anyway.

[BigA]

In other words it'll be an MJO based season like 2008, we will be able to have a good idea of upswings and slower periods of a season. That'd be my best guess anyway.

I'm pretty sure that's what JB means. He was talking in a recent video about how El Nino makes MJO pulses much more difficult to forecast, but that this year they should be easier. He said that in 2008 he was able to call that there would be few new systems between Ike's formation and the end of September because of an inhibiting MJO.