Next round of severe weather 7th May Onwards?

[Dave]

[apocalypt-flyer]

Quite obvious to see the hook there on that OK system heading close to Alva at the moment.

Quite surprised the anticyclonic half is holding up so well and forming such a good hook.

[CrazyC83]

2000Z: No real change in the high risk; moderate extended southward.

[Dave]

ALFALFA OK-
302 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR ALFALFA
COUNTY...

AT 302 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 3 MILES SOUTH OF
LAMBERT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE AMORITA...BYRON...CARMEN...
CHEROKEE...DRIFTWOOD...GREAT SALT PLAINS LAKE...INGERSOLL...JET AND
LAMBERT.

[Dave]

Crazy may have gotten this link a little while ago...from KOCO TV:

http://www.koco.com/video/23509261/index.html

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
205 PM MDT MON MAY 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
NORTHERN GREELEY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 300 PM MDT

* AT 204 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ARAPAHOE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARAPAHOE.

[KWT]

Quite surprised the anticyclonic half is holding up so well and forming such a good hook.

Just the first signs of it weakening a little perhaps on the latest radar update, but its still holding up ok considering.

Obviously given these cells are in the better conditions already, only a matter of time you'd think before the area of better instablity spreads northwards.

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 101958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KS AND CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KS/MUCH OF OK TO
SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...
RELATIVELY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRIOR DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...DID EXPAND THE CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK SOUTHWARD TO THE
RED RIVER AREA OF OK/TX...WHERE A REASONABLE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT PER UPSTREAM CU FIELD ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST HIGH RES NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE/ASSORTMENT OF 15Z SREF MEMBERSHIP.

OTHERWISE..FAST MOVING/LONG-LIVED/INTENSE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL/STRONG TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGH/MODERATE RISK AREAS OF KS/OK TO SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR
THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING. PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST WATCHES/SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR THE MOST CONTEMPORARY SHORT TERM GUIDANCE.

..GUYER.. 05/10/2010

[Melissa]

Checking in here from Halstead, KS. Looks like we've finally got a doozie coming on!

[snoopj]

Alfalfa County, OK storm cell still has a decent column of rotation, but it still appears above 7500ft. Latest Spotter Network report from that area was three minutes of golf ball sized hail. The report also mentions no sign of a wall cloud.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
311 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN NESS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 310 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ARNOLD. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADIC STORM MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RANSOM AND BROWNELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS CONFIRMED WITH THIS STORM. TAKE COVER NOW.
MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.
AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO
THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
313 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN ALFALFA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 313 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR EXTREME WESTERN
GREAT SALT PLAINS LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE GREAT SALT PLAINS LAKE...JET...
MEDFORD...RENFROW AND WAKITA.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
316 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BARBER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
EASTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 310 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF AETNA. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH. VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AETNA...SUN CITY...LAKE CITY AND MEDICINE LODGE.

[BlueIce]

Unreal CAPE Values. May 3rd 1999 was 5,885 in OKC before the F5

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0509
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL...NE AND E CNTRL KS....EXTREME SE
NEB AND PARTS OF NW/W CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102014Z - 102215Z

TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW. TORNADO WW 147 COULD BE LOCALLY
EXTENDED NORTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS.

AS A 90+ KT WESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK CONTINUES TO NOSE EAST
NORTHEAST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE
ADVECTION ABOVE A STABLE FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER...NORTH OF A
RETREATING SURFACE FRONT...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. THE
SURFACE FRONT MAY NOT LIFT MUCH NORTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER
AREA...BUT WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION...IN THE
PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE SHEAR...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST LARGE HAIL...AS
FAR NORTH AS PARTS OF THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY BY 11/00Z.

..KERR.. 05/10/2010


ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON 39109894 39589780 40089669 40199580 40089509 39229451
38419471 37889531 37819596 37909723 38499884 39109894

[Dave]

[Bunkertor]

Unreal CAPE Values. May 3rd 1999 was 5,885 in OKC before the F5

That was the prediction i saved this afternoon

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BARBER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN PRATT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 319 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR
MEDICINE LODGE. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 80
MPH. VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ISABEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

[Bunkertor]

http://www.news9.com/ OKC - is Gary England still on duty ? I had emailed him some pictures when a F2? struck my city http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsgaxpQCQ2s&feature=related 2006

[Dave]

Mark Pfister, east of Cherokee....video cam...

http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/pl ... er&uid=338