Next round of severe weather 7th May Onwards?

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badger70
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#501 Postby badger70 » Mon May 10, 2010 7:43 pm

rotating wall cloud N/NW of Checotah, OK: (from KOTV, Ch. 6):

Image
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#502 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 10, 2010 7:44 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0514
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 149...

VALID 110034Z - 110130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 149 CONTINUES.

TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 149 THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.


THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SLOW AND SO FAR RELATIVELY
ISOLATED FROM THE RED RIVER SWD TOWARD DYS ALONG DRYLINE. CAPPING
INVERSION APPEARS TO BE LIMITING MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WITH
THE STRONGEST CELL LOCATED OVER SRN YOUNG COUNTY. GIVEN A STRONGER
CAP FURTHER EWD...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAYBE HAVE A HARD TIME
BECOMING SFC BASED AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...MUCAPE AROUND 3000-4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
50-65 KT WILL ALLOW ANY SFC BASED STORMS TO CONTINUE TO POSE A
TORNADO THREAT. AFTER SUNSET...BOTH CAPE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR BEGIN
TO DECREASE.

..STOPPKOTTE.. 05/11/2010


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 32700006 33459934 33849840 33439765 32759810 32239895
32120002 32700006
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#503 Postby KWT » Mon May 10, 2010 7:46 pm

Thanks for another very good screengrab Badger, you can see the rotation there quite nicely lowering from the Wall Cloud.

The rotation we've been following from Seminole still is looking decent, I've been very impressed how long that signature has held on for...
Last edited by KWT on Mon May 10, 2010 7:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#504 Postby apocalypt-flyer » Mon May 10, 2010 7:47 pm

The Lake Thunderbird marina is just a huge lump of debris in the lake. Insane. Probably from the tornado that's been filmed from the news9 helicopter earlier on.
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#505 Postby KWT » Mon May 10, 2010 7:49 pm

I think we may well start to see more wind damage soon, starting to look very linear now...

Showing damage from Little Axe School, some huge damage there...
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#506 Postby brunota2003 » Mon May 10, 2010 7:52 pm

Don't be surprised if that wall cloud drops a tornado here very soon...rotation is tightening again.
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#507 Postby KWT » Mon May 10, 2010 7:53 pm

Also got some nice rotation down with the cell near Ada right now. Seeing some of the damage really does bring home how bad some of the tornadoes have been...
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#508 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 10, 2010 7:54 pm

That looked to still be on the ground in Checotah with the debris.
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Re: Next round of severe weather 7th May Onwards?

#509 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 10, 2010 7:54 pm

WWUS54 KTSA 110045
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
745 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

OKC091-101-111-110115-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-100511T0115Z/
OKMULGEE OK-MUSKOGEE OK-MCINTOSH OK-
745 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE AND
EASTERN OKMULGEE COUNTIES CONTINUES...

AT 741 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGIST AND STORM SPOTTERS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO LOCATED NEAR
CHECOTAH
...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. A LARGE TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND...
THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SUMMIT...
KEEFETON...MUSKOGEE...WARNER...PORUM...BRAGGS...WEBBERS FALLS AND
PUMPKIN CENTER.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 252 AND 287.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND! THIS IS A
LIFE THREATENING SITUATION!


IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY! IF
NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN
MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE AND EASTERN OKMULGEE COUNTIES.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 9574 3582 9514 3565 9512 3554 9513
3550 9511 3540 9510 3538 9515 3537 9514
3534 9518 3541 9575
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 261DEG 43KT 3549 9546

$$
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#510 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 10, 2010 7:56 pm

It is possible that that tornado has been on the ground since Moore - that would if a single tornado be a path of 115 miles so far...
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Re:

#511 Postby srainhoutx » Mon May 10, 2010 7:57 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:It is possible that that tornado has been on the ground since Moore - that would if a single tornado be a path of 115 miles so far...



Good catch!
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#512 Postby brunota2003 » Mon May 10, 2010 7:58 pm

I got -57 and +71 in a tight couplet on the Checotah storm...that is as intense as it was earlier when it moved through Norman.
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Re:

#513 Postby KWT » Mon May 10, 2010 7:59 pm

Yep that system is unreal in terms of how long the great presentation has lasted, looks like its strengthened yet further over the past 10 mins, not good!!!
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#514 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 10, 2010 8:02 pm

That would be the second ultra-long-track tornado in 2 1/2 weeks if that is the case...
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Re:

#515 Postby KWT » Mon May 10, 2010 8:07 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:That would be the second ultra-long-track tornado in 2 1/2 weeks if that is the case...


Yep, then again given profiles are so condusive its not all that surprising it has happened, and to be fair its been well modelled as well.
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Re: Next round of severe weather 7th May Onwards?

#516 Postby Ntxwx » Mon May 10, 2010 8:09 pm

Cell near Mineral Wells, Tx now coming together nicely. May need to watch this one.
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Re: Next round of severe weather 7th May Onwards?

#517 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 10, 2010 8:10 pm

SPC AC 110059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND ERN
OK...SE KS...SW MO AND NW AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...MID-MS VALLEY AND OZARKS...

...MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN OK THIS
EVENING WITH STRONG TO POSSIBLY VIOLENT LONG-TRACK TORNADOES
POSSIBLE...


...SRN PLAINS...
A CLUSTER OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IS ONGOING IN ERN OK JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND AHEAD OF AN IMPRESSIVE AND FAST-MOVING NEGATIVELY-TILTED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. A 75 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN NRN OK AND THIS FEATURE IS CREATING VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THE ENTIRE HIGH AND MODERATE RISK AREAS. THIS WILL
CREATE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG A TONGUE OF
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY FROM ECNTRL OK EXTENDING NWD INTO ERN
KS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR CURRENTLY SHOWS MLCAPE
VALUES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 4000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE
80 TO 90 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
VALUES OF 450 TO 550 M2/S2 WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE
GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST ALONG I-40 SOUTH OF TULSA EWD TO
THE ARKANSAS STATE-LINE WHERE A LONG TRACK HIGH-END TORNADO IS
ONGOING.
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO WRN AR AS THE MOIST AXIS
MOVES EWD AND INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS SERN OK WHERE
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED.
FOR THIS REASON...HAVE NUDGED
THE HIGH RISK SWD ACROSS PARTS OF SERN OK. SOUTHEAST OF THE RED
RIVER...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING ALONG AN AXIS OF STRONG
TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 50 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS EVENING.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS ERN KS...A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE OF SEVERE
STORMS IS ONGOING ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE NOSE OF A 60 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS AREA IS JUST AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUGGESTING THIS LINE SHOULD REMAIN ORGANIZED
MOVING EWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN MISSOURI THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE INSTABILITY IS MUCH WEAKER IN ERN KS AND WRN
MO WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT ISOLATED. FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE REMOVED THE HIGH RISK FROM ERN KS. THE WIND DAMAGE
THREAT SHOULD BE ENHANCED WITH THIS LARGE-SCALE LINE-SEGMENT AND
HAVE RAISED SW MO TO MODERATE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO CNTRL MO AND ACROSS NRN AR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 05/11/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0109Z (9:09PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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Re: Next round of severe weather 7th May Onwards?

#518 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 10, 2010 8:10 pm

STILL on the ground - probably now around 130 miles.

KC001-021-101-135-110145-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-100511T0145Z/
MUSKOGEE OK-ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
809 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN SEQUOYAH...SOUTHERN
CHEROKEE...SOUTHWESTERN ADAIR AND NORTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTIES
CONTINUES...

AT 807 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM SPOTTERS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A VERY DANGEROUS TORNADO LOCATED NEAR GORE...
MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH. A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED...TAKE COVER NOW!

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WEBBERS
FALLS...GORE...PUMPKIN CENTER...VIAN...BOX...MC KEY...COOKSON...
SALLISAW...MARBLE CITY...BRUSHY...BUNCH AND ELDON.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 278 AND 310.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN
SEQUOYAH...SOUTHERN CHEROKEE...SOUTHWESTERN ADAIR AND NORTHEASTERN
MUSKOGEE COUNTIES.

&&

LAT...LON 3596 9479 3543 9467 3547 9507 3548 9534
3556 9534 3556 9536 3575 9541
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 253DEG 39KT 3558 9517

$$
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Re: Next round of severe weather 7th May Onwards?

#519 Postby Ntxwx » Mon May 10, 2010 8:11 pm

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
805 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL SHACKELFORD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 804 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
IBEX...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
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#520 Postby KWT » Mon May 10, 2010 8:11 pm

Thats an amazing tornado track, it really is!

How long was the track from 2 weeks ago again?
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