Clip of the first big one.
http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/weather/05/1 ... tml?hpt=T1
Next round of severe weather 7th May Onwards?
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6151
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Next round of severe weather 7th May Onwards?
Developing tornado near Ector in Fannin County, which is just west of a state prison and the city of Bonham.
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6151
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Next round of severe weather 7th May Onwards?
Looks like a hook echo developing near Bonham...
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It looks quite weak to me if it is a hook Echo, not too sure myself...that being said there is a slight hook so it could be.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6151
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Next round of severe weather 7th May Onwards?
Texas Snowman wrote:Looks like a hook echo developing near Bonham...
Fannin County emergency management has been tracking a well defined wall cloud from west to east across the county. So far, it has not touched down.
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6151
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Next round of severe weather 7th May Onwards?
NewsOK.com reporting six fatalities (3 in Oklahoma County, 3 in Cleveland County) and 57 injuries from today's tornadoes in the state...
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
FANNIN TX-
1105 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL FANNIN COUNTY...
AT 1104 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STORM NEAR HONEY GROVE WITH WEAK ROTATION. THIS STORM CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND THE TORNADO WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1115 PM.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.
1105 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL FANNIN COUNTY...
AT 1104 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STORM NEAR HONEY GROVE WITH WEAK ROTATION. THIS STORM CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND THE TORNADO WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1115 PM.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.
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wx247
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 14279
- Age: 41
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
- Location: Monett, Missouri
- Contact:
Nowhere near as active as yesterday, but today features a decent risk of severe weather over a rather large area:
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
Backup Operations for SPC:
OFCM - Office of Federal Coordinator for Meteorology
http://www.ofcm.gov/default.htm
or
http://www.ofcm.gov/slso/pdf/appenc2.pdf
APPENDIX C
CONTINGENCY BACKUP OPERATIONS
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION
STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)
1. If SPC is down and can not produce or distribute their products, Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) at Offutt
AFB in Omaha Nebraska will provide backup for products and dissemination.
2. Required products and format:
Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watch (MKCSEL#; WWUS9)
Aviation Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watch (MKCSAW#;WWUS40)
Day 1 Convective Outlook (MKCSWODY1; ACUS1)
Day 2 Convective Outlook (MKCSWODY2; ACUS2)
3. Watches are issued on an as needed basis. Convective Outlooks are issued at the following UTC times:
Day 2 - 0830 (0730 during daylight time), 1730.
4. The NWS Telecommunications Gateway (NWSTG) and AFWA will be notified by SPC of the need for backup
and requested to initiate any required backup operations.
5. Timeliness: Products should be available as soon as possible after creation. An estimate of the length or duration of the backup will be given at the time of notification.
6. There will be some degradation of service to the SPC product user. The following will not be prepared and/or
Mesoscale Discussions (MKCSWOMCD; ACUS3),
Public Severe Weather Outlooks (MKCPWOMKC; WWUS36),
Watch Status Messages (MKCWWAMKC; WWUS8), and
SPC gathered Report Summaries issued:
(1) hourly (MKCSTAHRY; WWUS60),
(2) daily (MKCSTADTS; WWUS60),
(3) monthly (MKCSTAMTS; WWUS61), and
(4) For tornadoes that cause death
or injury (MKSTATIJ; NWUS63).
7. The SPC Lead Forecaster is the operational point of contact at SPC. The AFWA Duty Officer is the operational point of contact at AFWA.
8. Backup capabilities and procedures will be exercised quarterly.
AVIATION WEATHER CENTER (AWC)
1. If AWC has lost production or communications capability, backup will be provided from three U.S. sources: Air
Force Weather Agency (AFWA) at Offutt AFB in Omaha Nebraska; Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) in Miami, Fl
and the Honolulu Forecast Office (HNL) in Honolulu, Hawaii.
2. Required products and format:
a. AFWA: AIRMET SIERRA
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KBOS
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KMIA
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KCHI
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KFTW
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KSLC
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KSFO
AIRMET TANGO
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KBOS
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KMIA
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KCHI
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KFTW
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KSLC
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KSFO
AIRMET ZULU WMO HEADER WAUS1 KBOS
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KMIA
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KCHI
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KFTW
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KSLC
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KSFO
NON-CONVECTIVE SIGMETS*
WMO HEADER WSUS1 KBOS
WMO HEADER WSUS1 KMIA
WMO HEADER WSUS1 KCHI
WMO HEADER WSUS1 KFTW
WMO HEADER WSUS1 KSLC
WMO HEADER WSUS1 KSFO
URGENT NON-CONVECTIVE SIGMET*
WMO HEADER WSUS1 KBOS
WMO HEADER WSUS1 KMIA
WMO HEADER WSUS1 KCHI
WMO HEADER WSUS1 KFTW
WMO HEADER WSUS1 KSLC
WMO HEADER WSUS1 KSFO
* Information for areas of active thunderstorms will be issued as non-convective SIGMETs during backup operations.
b. TPC: INTERNATIONAL SIGMETS NEW YORK FIR North of 300N
WMO HEADER MKCSIGA0**
INTERNATIONAL SIGMETS OAKLAND FIR East of 1400W,
North of 300N
WMO HEADER MKCSIGP0**
c. HNL: INTERNATIONAL SIGMETS OAKLAND FIR West of 1400W,
North of 300N
WMO HEADER MCKSIGP0**
** This indicates the letters A through M.
3. Products are to be issued as needed for SIGMETs and every six hours for AIRMETs over T-1 line between
AFWA and NCO and then to the NWSTG.
4. The AFWA, TPC and HNL are notified via cellular phone when the AWC loses capability. They are responsible
for issuing a statement that the AWC is in backup mode.
5. Timeliness requirements: Products should be available as soon as possible after creation. An estimate of the
length or duration or the backup will be given at the time of notification.
6. There will be some degradation of service to the customer when AWC is in a backup mode. The following will
not be prepared:
a.
Area Forecasts,
b.
Convective SIGMETs***,
c.
High level Significant Weather Charts****, and
d.
Aviation parts of the Low level Significant
Weather Charts.
***Information for areas of active thunderstorms will be issued as non-convective SIGMETs.
****Negotiations are ongoing with the UK Meteorological Office on provision of backup for this product
7. The AWC Lead Forecaster is the point of contact at AWC. The AFWA Duty Officer is the point of contact at
AFWA. The TPC and HNL Lead Forecasters are the points of contact at TPC and HNL, respectively.
8. Testing of the backup capability and procedures will occur quarterly with the AFWA and annually with the TPC
and HNL.
OFCM - Office of Federal Coordinator for Meteorology
http://www.ofcm.gov/default.htm
or
http://www.ofcm.gov/slso/pdf/appenc2.pdf
APPENDIX C
CONTINGENCY BACKUP OPERATIONS
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION
STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)
1. If SPC is down and can not produce or distribute their products, Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) at Offutt
AFB in Omaha Nebraska will provide backup for products and dissemination.
2. Required products and format:
Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watch (MKCSEL#; WWUS9)
Aviation Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watch (MKCSAW#;WWUS40)
Day 1 Convective Outlook (MKCSWODY1; ACUS1)
Day 2 Convective Outlook (MKCSWODY2; ACUS2)
3. Watches are issued on an as needed basis. Convective Outlooks are issued at the following UTC times:
Day 2 - 0830 (0730 during daylight time), 1730.
4. The NWS Telecommunications Gateway (NWSTG) and AFWA will be notified by SPC of the need for backup
and requested to initiate any required backup operations.
5. Timeliness: Products should be available as soon as possible after creation. An estimate of the length or duration of the backup will be given at the time of notification.
6. There will be some degradation of service to the SPC product user. The following will not be prepared and/or
Mesoscale Discussions (MKCSWOMCD; ACUS3),
Public Severe Weather Outlooks (MKCPWOMKC; WWUS36),
Watch Status Messages (MKCWWAMKC; WWUS8), and
SPC gathered Report Summaries issued:
(1) hourly (MKCSTAHRY; WWUS60),
(2) daily (MKCSTADTS; WWUS60),
(3) monthly (MKCSTAMTS; WWUS61), and
(4) For tornadoes that cause death
or injury (MKSTATIJ; NWUS63).
7. The SPC Lead Forecaster is the operational point of contact at SPC. The AFWA Duty Officer is the operational point of contact at AFWA.
8. Backup capabilities and procedures will be exercised quarterly.
AVIATION WEATHER CENTER (AWC)
1. If AWC has lost production or communications capability, backup will be provided from three U.S. sources: Air
Force Weather Agency (AFWA) at Offutt AFB in Omaha Nebraska; Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) in Miami, Fl
and the Honolulu Forecast Office (HNL) in Honolulu, Hawaii.
2. Required products and format:
a. AFWA: AIRMET SIERRA
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KBOS
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KMIA
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KCHI
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KFTW
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KSLC
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KSFO
AIRMET TANGO
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KBOS
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KMIA
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KCHI
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KFTW
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KSLC
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KSFO
AIRMET ZULU WMO HEADER WAUS1 KBOS
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KMIA
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KCHI
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KFTW
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KSLC
WMO HEADER WAUS1 KSFO
NON-CONVECTIVE SIGMETS*
WMO HEADER WSUS1 KBOS
WMO HEADER WSUS1 KMIA
WMO HEADER WSUS1 KCHI
WMO HEADER WSUS1 KFTW
WMO HEADER WSUS1 KSLC
WMO HEADER WSUS1 KSFO
URGENT NON-CONVECTIVE SIGMET*
WMO HEADER WSUS1 KBOS
WMO HEADER WSUS1 KMIA
WMO HEADER WSUS1 KCHI
WMO HEADER WSUS1 KFTW
WMO HEADER WSUS1 KSLC
WMO HEADER WSUS1 KSFO
* Information for areas of active thunderstorms will be issued as non-convective SIGMETs during backup operations.
b. TPC: INTERNATIONAL SIGMETS NEW YORK FIR North of 300N
WMO HEADER MKCSIGA0**
INTERNATIONAL SIGMETS OAKLAND FIR East of 1400W,
North of 300N
WMO HEADER MKCSIGP0**
c. HNL: INTERNATIONAL SIGMETS OAKLAND FIR West of 1400W,
North of 300N
WMO HEADER MCKSIGP0**
** This indicates the letters A through M.
3. Products are to be issued as needed for SIGMETs and every six hours for AIRMETs over T-1 line between
AFWA and NCO and then to the NWSTG.
4. The AFWA, TPC and HNL are notified via cellular phone when the AWC loses capability. They are responsible
for issuing a statement that the AWC is in backup mode.
5. Timeliness requirements: Products should be available as soon as possible after creation. An estimate of the
length or duration or the backup will be given at the time of notification.
6. There will be some degradation of service to the customer when AWC is in a backup mode. The following will
not be prepared:
a.
Area Forecasts,
b.
Convective SIGMETs***,
c.
High level Significant Weather Charts****, and
d.
Aviation parts of the Low level Significant
Weather Charts.
***Information for areas of active thunderstorms will be issued as non-convective SIGMETs.
****Negotiations are ongoing with the UK Meteorological Office on provision of backup for this product
7. The AWC Lead Forecaster is the point of contact at AWC. The AFWA Duty Officer is the point of contact at
AFWA. The TPC and HNL Lead Forecasters are the points of contact at TPC and HNL, respectively.
8. Testing of the backup capability and procedures will occur quarterly with the AFWA and annually with the TPC
and HNL.
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Yep a reasonable chance of severe thunderstorms today, though obviously its not likely to be anywhere near as busy as it was last night. Looks like we are heading into a spell now where we will have quite a few borderline slight severe risks.
Crazy, yeah the SPC called the risk for a very active spell of weather a good 4-5 days before hand.
Crazy, yeah the SPC called the risk for a very active spell of weather a good 4-5 days before hand.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Next round of severe weather 7th May Onwards?
Today may be worse than first thought:
SPC AC 111620
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2010
VALID 111630Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MUCH OF OK/KS INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY...
...NORTHWEST OK/SOUTH CENTRAL KS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ/NM. THIS FEATURE IS WELL HANDLED BY THE 12Z
NAM/GFS AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
OK THIS EVENING. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY ACROSS TX/OK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAPID LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH
OF NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS AROUND OR AFTER DARK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IN NORTHWEST OK INDICATE AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A WEAKENING CAP. ALSO...WIND
PROFILES STRENGTHEN DRAMATICALLY DURING THE EVENING WITH EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 200-400 M2/S2.
THIS SUGGESTS THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
A FEW TORNADOES DURING THE EVENING OVER NORTHWEST OK...WITH SGFNT
HAIL THREAT SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KS BY LATE EVENING.
CONSIDERED AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA...BUT HELD OFF DUE TO CONCERNS OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
...REMAINDER OF OK...
A VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT OK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
STATE. WEAK FORCING SUGGESTS AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
LIMITED. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMICS AND WIND PROFILES ARGUE FOR A
RISK OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN ANY STORMS THAT FORM TODAY.
...SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR INTO LOWER OH VALLEY...
SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHERN
MO. DEWPOINTS ARE CLIMBING TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MID
60S VALUES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN KY/SOUTHERN
IND. BROKEN CLOUD COVER WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...A RATHER WEAK CAP AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS
AREA ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RISK OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL TO
SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
..HART/SMITH.. 05/11/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1629Z (12:29PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
SPC AC 111620
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2010
VALID 111630Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MUCH OF OK/KS INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY...
...NORTHWEST OK/SOUTH CENTRAL KS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ/NM. THIS FEATURE IS WELL HANDLED BY THE 12Z
NAM/GFS AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
OK THIS EVENING. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY ACROSS TX/OK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAPID LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH
OF NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS AROUND OR AFTER DARK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IN NORTHWEST OK INDICATE AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A WEAKENING CAP. ALSO...WIND
PROFILES STRENGTHEN DRAMATICALLY DURING THE EVENING WITH EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 200-400 M2/S2.
THIS SUGGESTS THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
A FEW TORNADOES DURING THE EVENING OVER NORTHWEST OK...WITH SGFNT
HAIL THREAT SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KS BY LATE EVENING.
CONSIDERED AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA...BUT HELD OFF DUE TO CONCERNS OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
...REMAINDER OF OK...
A VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT OK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
STATE. WEAK FORCING SUGGESTS AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
LIMITED. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMICS AND WIND PROFILES ARGUE FOR A
RISK OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN ANY STORMS THAT FORM TODAY.
...SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR INTO LOWER OH VALLEY...
SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHERN
MO. DEWPOINTS ARE CLIMBING TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MID
60S VALUES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN KY/SOUTHERN
IND. BROKEN CLOUD COVER WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...A RATHER WEAK CAP AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS
AREA ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RISK OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL TO
SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
..HART/SMITH.. 05/11/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1629Z (12:29PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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-
JonathanBelles
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 34
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
-
johnmarkthom
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 24
- Joined: Wed Apr 21, 2010 7:47 am
- Location: Joplin, MO
Re: Next round of severe weather 7th May Onwards?
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/10051112_OBS/SGF.gif
interesting sounding from Springfield MO
interesting sounding from Springfield MO
0 likes
Hmmmm it does look quite interesting actually, I'll watch this one closely just in case it does decide to pull a little surprise...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0517
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN AND W-CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 111924Z - 112130Z
NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN AND W CNTRL OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR STORM
INITIATION. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES PROBABLE.
A WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM SRN MO SWWD THROUGH CNTRL OK THEN WW
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE EXTENDS THROUGH WRN AND NWRN TX
INTO SWRN OK WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE. PARTIAL CLEARING HAS
OCCURRED IN PORTION OF WARM SECTOR FROM NWRN TX THROUGH WRN OK
BOOSTING TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 80...AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
RESERVOIR OF 4000 J/KG MLCAPE WHERE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
OVERSPREAD THE THETA-E AXIS. THE SCALLOPED APPEARANCE OF THE LOW
CLOUDS AND POINT FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS STILL CAPPED...AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE EXTENT AND
TIMING OF INITIATION. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN
TOWARDS EVENING...AND THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WV IMAGERY ALSO
SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE MOVING EWD THROUGH WRN TX...AND
DEEPER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COULD PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER S OVER NWRN TX ALONG THE DRYLINE.
GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INCREASING 0-1 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE WITH TIME...SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY...CONDITIONAL UPON
INITIATION.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN AND W-CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 111924Z - 112130Z
NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN AND W CNTRL OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR STORM
INITIATION. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES PROBABLE.
A WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM SRN MO SWWD THROUGH CNTRL OK THEN WW
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE EXTENDS THROUGH WRN AND NWRN TX
INTO SWRN OK WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE. PARTIAL CLEARING HAS
OCCURRED IN PORTION OF WARM SECTOR FROM NWRN TX THROUGH WRN OK
BOOSTING TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 80...AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
RESERVOIR OF 4000 J/KG MLCAPE WHERE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
OVERSPREAD THE THETA-E AXIS. THE SCALLOPED APPEARANCE OF THE LOW
CLOUDS AND POINT FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS STILL CAPPED...AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE EXTENT AND
TIMING OF INITIATION. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN
TOWARDS EVENING...AND THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WV IMAGERY ALSO
SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE MOVING EWD THROUGH WRN TX...AND
DEEPER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COULD PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER S OVER NWRN TX ALONG THE DRYLINE.
GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INCREASING 0-1 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE WITH TIME...SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY...CONDITIONAL UPON
INITIATION.
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apocalypt-flyer
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brunota2003
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Re:
fact789 wrote:Anyone know how Vortex 2 made out yesterday?
I do! I do!
All team members safe and accounted for. Operations yesterday were east of the OKC metro area, N & S of I-40. Two StickNet probes collected samples just a few hundred yards away from the damage swath north of Seminole. A good dataset, but there is quite a bit of destruction in the area. Please keep these communitie...s in your thoughts as they begin the rebuilding process.
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