tropical cyclogenesis as a function of mjo phasing?

[weatherwindow]

well team..here's one that's been piquing my curiousity...it appears, at least under casual scrutiny, that cyclogenesis in 09 was coincident with the arrival of the favourable mjo phase in the mdr...my question is whether previous seasons exhibit a similiar correlation to mjo phasing....perhaps someone of a particularly statistical bent could shed some light on it......thanks in advance,.....rich

[wxman57]

Take a look at an MJO page I made about 10 years ago:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/mjo/

[Aquawind]

I know you have posted the link before but, Thanks again wxman57.

I am curious to know how many wet MJO events will reach the basin in a season and what it looks like could happen at this point related to MJO influence this year.

If 1/3 of the events are strong enough to reach the basin durring hurricane season and we are looking at one arriving late this month. What are the chances another wet phase will come into the basin and when? The 30-60 day cycle refers to the arrival or how long it lasts? Thanks for your time.

Also.. Do they have forecasts for the MJO now? I see this link has old data. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/MJO/Forecasts/#500

[wxman57]

Here's a link to a real-time MJO forecast:
http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO_current_run.htm

Main website is here:
http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/mjo_forecasts.htm

I think that a typical MJO phase may last a few weeks in an area - depends on how strong it is. If we have one impulse moving in later this month, then the next may come in late August or early September around peak season. That doesn't preclude earlier August development, it just enhances activity when it arrives.

[Aquawind]

Thank you! I need to chew on this for a bit before I ask my next couple of questions. Seems like people are giving this MJO more credit than in the past... Do we know how many impulses and when they got into the basin in 2005?