Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
740 PM AST THU MAY 13 2010

PRC089-119-140130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0115.100513T2340Z-100514T0130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LUQUILLO PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
740 PM AST THU MAY 13 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LUQUILLO AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 930 PM AST

* AT 733 PM AST...THE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THESE
AREAS. RECENT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY WERE ALREADY
BETWEEN AN INCH TO TWO INCHES WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION LEADING TO
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS FLOODING IN POORLY
DRAINED AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[msbee]

It's raining in St. Maarten!

[cycloneye]

Oh that's great Barbara Lets see if this weekend rain event dumps plenty of rain to the islands that need it the most.

[tropicana]

Regional Weather Summary
Thu May 13 2010

Thursday's Highs and rain (if any)

Piarco, C. Trinidad 34.6C 94F 2.0mm
Crown Point, Tobago 31.2C 88F 1.0mm

Point Salines, Grenada 31.3C 88F 6.0mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.7C 89F 2.2mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 30.7C 87F 7.8mm
Hewannora, St Lucia 32.2C 90F trace
Vigie, St Lucia 32.3C 90F 3.4mm

Melville Hall, Dominica 30.8C 87F 12.0mm
Canefield, Dominica 32.4C 90F 5.8mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 31.3C 88F 9.2mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 30.0C 86F 1.6mm (estimated)

Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.4C 86F 3.8mm
VC Bird, Antigua 30.0C 86F 13.1mm
St Maarten, VI 30.3C 86F 3.7mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 31.1C 88F 2.5mm

Norman Manley, Jamaica 33.3C 92F
Sangster, Montego Bay, Jamaica 31.6C 89F 11.0mm
Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 31.0C 88F trace
Havana, Cuba 32.1C 90F

Nassau, Bahamas 28.0C 82F
Hamilton, Bermuda 23.0C 73F

Hato, Curacao 32.5C 91F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 31.6C 89F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 33.3C 92F

Cayenne, Guyana 31.0C 88F 22.0mm

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
956 PM AST THU MAY 13 2010

.UPDATE...A LINE OF SHOWERS WAS EVIDENT LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...WITH FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL..MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING
WEATHER SITUATION. STILL EXPECT AN ACTIVE DAY SATURDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO FORECAST GRIDS TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MOST OF
THE TAF SITES DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE SHRA...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AT
LEAST UNTIL 14/10Z. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING AT 14/00Z INDICATED WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST
AT 25 KNOTS OR LESS BTW SFC TO 15 KFT.

[Gustywind]

Wet weather conditions should spread on Guadeloupe tonight and especially tommorow given Meteo-France Guadeloupe in their last weather forecast...

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all. A wind advisory for today and the rains from tonight thru Sunday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST FRI MAY 14 2010

.UPDATE...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BASE
VELOCITY PRODUCTS/VWP PROFILES FROM BOTH 88D AND TDWR RADARS SHOW 25+KT
WINDS AS LOW AS 1500 FT OVR PR. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY RECENT
ACARS FROM SJU. GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS WINDS INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY. PLAYED A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE AND INCLUDED ONLY ELEVS ABV
2000 FT. DO NOT THINK THIS WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED EVENT. THEREFORE...ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM AST FRI MAY 14 2010/

SYNOPSIS...SFC RIDGE ALONG 30N WILL MAINTAIN A FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND PASS
TO THE NORTH OF PR SAT WHILE WEAKENING.

DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DIG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH NEXT 12 HRS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST AND PASS NORTH OF PR ON SAT WHILE WEAKENING. ASSOCIATED
65-KT JET STREAK AS SEEN ON LATEST ACARS PLOTS ROUNDS THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH AND RUNS FROM ERN CUBA THROUGH HISPANIOLA AND JUST TO
THE NW OF AGUADILLA. AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET
STREAK BEGINS TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT MODELS SHOW
INCREASING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT
SHOULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THIS WILL START AFTER 06Z SAT AND LAST
INTO SAT EVENING. MODELS HOLD ON TO DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT THROUGH
SUN MORNING EVEN THOUGH UPPER LVL TROUGH HAS ALREADY LIFTED TO
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THIS HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT WILL LAST AS LONG AS THE MODELS ARE PORTRAYING. BELIEVE THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL END SOONER THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING.

FOR TODAY LOOKS LIKE WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PAST FEW DAYS
WITH FAST MOVING SCT-NMRS SHOWERS. MID LEVEL DRY AIR AS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND FAST MOVEMENT OF SHRAS WILL REDUCE
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS MANAGEABLE. THIS
HOWEVER WILL CHANGE DURING THE DAY SAT AS DEEPER MOISTURE GETS
DRAWN NWD AND ATMOSPHERE BECOMES COMPLETELY SATURATED FROM THE SFC
UP TO THE TROPOPAUSE GREATLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY.
STILL ANTICIPATING THAT WILL SEE LOTS OF FLOODING PROBLEMS ON SAT.
RAN THE SITE SPECIFIC GUIDANCE AND THIS BRINGS SVRL OF OUR LARGER
RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF PR. WILL LET THE
DAYSHIFT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATER TODAY. MUCH DRIER WILL
MOVE IN FOR MON TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS...HOWEVER PASSING SHRA AND VCSH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
MOST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. THEREFORE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 14/17Z AND LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST 14/22Z.

LATEST 14/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED EAST NORTHEAST WINDS BTW 5 TO 25
KTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 15K FEET. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES AFTER 15/00Z...INDUCING MORE
PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS.

MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 2.5 METERS AT BUOY 41043 AND
AROUND 1.8 AT BUOY 42060. A 0154Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED SOLID 20-KT
ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF 65W. NAH MODEL SHOWS SEAS PEAKING AROUND
7 FT ACROSS BOTH ATLC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS TONIGHT IN A COMBINATION
OF EAST GENERATED WIND WAVES AND SMALL NNE SWELLS.


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST FRI MAY 14 2010

...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ABOVE 2000 FEET OF ELEVATION...

PRZ006-141745-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.WI.Y.0002.100514T0945Z-100514T2200Z/
CENTRAL INTERIOR-
545 AM AST FRI MAY 14 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING.

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000
FEET. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OR
GREATER ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. PEOPLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS
GARBAGE CANS OR LAWN FURNITURE. TRUCKS AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS PASSES.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

The rainy event continues to be forecast for this weekend thru early next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST FRI MAY 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM A LOW
NORTH OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WILL LIFT EAST NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE JET STREAM WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

AT MID LEVELS...THE FOCUS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER UNTIL THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND WHEN A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DRIVES
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES DURING THE WEEKEND AND REMAINS HIGH
UNTIL FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND MOVES
TO A POSITION NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE BETWEEN 1.8 AND
2.0 INCHES...BUT CLOUD COVER AND NO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
HAVE REDUCED THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLANDS SO FAR.
LATER...PLUMES OF STRONG DIVERGENCE AFTER 15/03Z AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN HALF. MODELS MAKE
LITTLE CHANGES TO THE WET REGIME NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
BETTER MOISTURE ON SUNDAY AND BETTER DYNAMICS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
MAKE THOSE THE WETTEST DAYS AS MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE. NAM IS
MUCH DRIER THAN THE GFS...BUT WITH MOISTURE AS HIGH AS IT IS AND
THE PROXIMITY OF THE JET TO THE NORTH HAVE FAVORED THE GFS
SOLUTION ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS ALSO APPLIES TO THE ARRIVAL OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...SATURDAY IN
EASTERN PUERTO RICO...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT MOST LOCAL TAF SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
ABOUT 14/22Z OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO LATE
TONIGHT...IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFT 15/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE LOCAL WATERS
AND THEN DIMINISH SLOWLY AS GRADIENTS IN THE ATLANTIC DIMINISH.
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

[tropicana]

Regional Weather Summary
Fri May 14 2010

Friday's Highs and rain (if any)

Piarco, C. Trinidad 30.9C 87F 26.6mm
Maraval, West Trinidad 27.2C 81F 14.0mm
Crown Point, Tobago 29.0C 84F 38.3mm

Point Salines, Grenada 28.7C 84F 20.0mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.0C 86F 3.9mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.9C 86F 31.5mm
Hewannora, St Lucia 31.3C 88F 17.9mm
Vigie, St Lucia 29.7C 86F 11.5mm

Melville Hall, Dominica 30.2C 86F 17.8mm
Canefield, Dominica 31.3C 88F 17.2mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 31.1C 88F 9.1mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 30.9C 87F 2.6mm (estimated)

Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.5C 87F 3.8mm
VC Bird, Antigua 29.9C 86F 2.1mm
St Maarten, VI 30.2C 86F 2.0mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 30.6C 87F 2.6mm

Norman Manley, Jamaica 34.4C 94F
Sangster, Montego Bay, Jamaica 32.5C 91F
Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 31.1C 88F
Havana, Cuba 30.7C 87F 2.0mm

Nassau, Bahamas 30.1C 86F 0.2mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 21.3C 70F 1.8mm

Hato, Curacao 32.3C 90F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 31.0C 88F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 33.6C 93F 0.2mm

Cayenne, Guyana 30.3C 86F 28.0mm

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
838 PM AST FRI MAY 14 2010

.UPDATE...QUICK MOVING SHOWERS...LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPORARILY REDUCED VISIBILITIES...LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND MINOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL BE
LIKELY WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS.


THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL REGION WILL SEND A
FEW SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...HELPING TO FURTHER ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY AT
TIMES...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED...IN LARGE PART DUE TO THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL
DATA...BUT NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND SATURDAY EVENING IN CURRENT
UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
PASSING SHRA AND VCSH WILL PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE TAF SITES AT LEAST UNTIL 15/10Z. FOR TOMORROW...AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES AFTER 15/16Z...
INDUCING MORE PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL TAF SITES. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN ENE AT 15 TO 25 KTS...WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all. Well,not as rainy as what the forecasts have been saying but there will be scattered showers around this weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST SAT MAY 15 2010

.UPDATE...A PAIR OF ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM SJU AT 0745Z AND 09Z
REVEAL A STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE OVR THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE CAP DOWN TO 850 MB. THIS IS NOT BEING HANDLED
WELL AT ALL BY THE MODELS WHICH SHOW A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ATMS. MODIFYING THESE SOUNDINGS FOR AFTERNOON CONDITIONS AT SJU KEEPS
THE LID IN PLACE OVR THE EAST BUT WARMER CONDITIONS AT MAYAGUEZ
MAY ALLOW TO GET THROUGH THE CAP. BIGGEST PROBLEM REMAINS WHETHER
WE CAN GET SOME SEA BREEZE/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW
20-25 KT FLOW JUST OFF THE GROUND. FCST WILL BE REVISITED LATER
THIS MORNING PENDING NEW MODEL DATA AND MOST LIKELY WILL BE TO
REDUCE POPS/QPF RATHER TO INCREASE THEM. NEW 00Z WRF-NMM MODEL HAS
COME IN AND SHOWS MEAGER RAINFALL AMTS THROUGH 06Z SUN AND MAINLY
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM AST SAT MAY 15 2010/

SYNOPSIS...SFC RIDGE ALONG 30N WILL MAINTAIN A FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF PR TODAY WHILE WEAKENING.

DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE DONE A COMPLETE OPPOSITE/FLIP FLOP FROM
24 HRS AGO NOW INDICATING STRONG UPPER LVL CONVERGENCE/DOWNWARD
MOTION AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH
RECENT ACARS PLOT AND TPW ANIMATION WHICH HAS ALSO SHOWN A
DECREASE IN TPW VALUES. NO WONDER WHY RADAR LOOKS SO QUIET THIS
MORNING OVER LAND AREAS.

MODELS HOWEVER STILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY TONIGHT
BUT IT APPEARS DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE ABSENT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS SHOULD HAVE
ALREADY PASSED THE AREA BY THIS TIME. HOWEVER I STILL CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULED OUT SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF PR ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FLASHY NATURE OF
THIS PART OF THE ISLAND BUT MY CONFIDENCE ON THIS HAS DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY PREVENTING ME ON ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS
TIME.

MOISTURE REMAINS DEEP THROUGH SUN WITH PWATS AROUND 2.25 INCHES.
IT APPEARS THAT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALTHOUGH WEAKER WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVENT SEA BREEZE/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND HENCE BIG RAINFALL
TOTALS. AGAIN...I CAN`T COMPLETELY RULED OUT PROBLEMS ON SUN
EITHER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY NEXT 12 TO 24
HRS. RESIDENTS/VISITORS OF PR SHOULD STILL REMAIN ABREAST OF THE
LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA SUN NIGHT BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE
SHORT-LIVED AS DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN MON AND HOLD
THROUGH TUE WITH DAILY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. LARGE
DISCREPANCIES SHOWN IN MODELS AFTER TUE SO NO REASON TO TALK MUCH
ABOUT THE EXTENDED OR TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS. PASSING SHRA AND VCSH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
TJSJ...TJBQ...TIST AND TISX TODAY. THEREFORE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFTER
15/17Z AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 15/22Z. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUST UP
TO 25 KNOTS.

MARINE...A 0133Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-KT ENE WINDS OVR THE MONA
PASSAGE AND BOTH BUOYS 41043 AND 42060 ARE STILL INDICATING SEAS
OF AROUND 2.1-2.2 METERS RESPECTIVELY STRONGLY SUGGESTING SCA
CONDITIONS STILL BEING MET ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
COME DOWN TONIGHT AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES AND THUS WIND WAVE
ACTION DIMINISHES.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1111 AM AST SAT MAY 15 2010

.UPDATE...AT THIS MOMENT THE NEXRAD DOPPLER RADAR IS ONLY SHOWING
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN AND THE SAN
JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. UPDATED THE WEATHER GRIDS TO ADJUST AND
INCLUDE ACTUAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALSO EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES...NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 15/18Z AND LINGER THROUGH
AT LEAST 15/22Z. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN
10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS.

[cycloneye]

It looks like plenty of rain will move thru the southern islands of the Lesser Antilles chain as a active tropical wave moves westward or maybe a tad westnorthwestward.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
355 PM AST SAT MAY 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST THROUGH
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY EXTENDING INTO THE LOCAL REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HAVE CONTINUED OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND ON AMOUNT OF
ACTIVE WEATHER. ALTHOUGH MID TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS HAVE
REMAINED DECENT...AT LEAST PERIODICALLY...THE MODERATE TO STRONG
EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR IDEAL
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY NOR HAS IT ALLOWED FOR THE
NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH.
THAT SAID...FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND PROBABLY LINGERING FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLIES
APPEARS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD INTERACT WITH LEFTOVER VENTILATION FROM AFOREMENTIONED MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THEN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING
SHOULD ACT TO CAP CONVECTION A BIT...BUT A BIT BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING SHOULD AGAIN
ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT MOST LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 7
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS ZONES FOR TONIGHT.

[cycloneye]

A mostly rainy night is expected.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
838 PM AST SAT MAY 15 2010

.UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL FOOTHILLS
OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS SINCE SUNSET LEAVING AS MUCH AS ONE HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN AREAS OF VEGA BAJA VEGA ALTA AND
TOA ALTA. LIGHTER AMOUNTS WERE SEEN EAST OF QUEBRADILLAS IN A
SWATH ABOUT 10 MILES WIDE. OTHER SHOWERS PASSED THROUGH CAGUAS
AND INTO BARRANQUITAS. SHOWERS REMAIN UPSTREAM AND WILL CONTINUE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT. BETTER
MOISTURE WAS SEEN IN THE MIMIC PRODUCT THAT SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND
16/11Z OVER NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE TO
RAIN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT REACHING BEYOND 25
THOUSAND FEET AT THIS TIME AND THE ONLY LIGHTNING STRIKES SEEN IN
PUERTO RICO SINCE 3 PM WERE A FEW IN LAJAS. THE THREAT OF FLOODING
IS NO LONGER PERCEIVED AND IT WAS REMOVED FROM THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ACCOMPANYING A PULSE OF
MOISTURE SEEN IN THE MIMIC PRODUCT AS WINDS AT BOTH 850 AND 700 MB
TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS. AM RELUCTANT TO
BOOST POPS OVER NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO ABOVE CURRENT LEVELS DUE TO
THE VERY MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INCREASE SEEN IN THE 850 AND
700 MB LEVELS AND SEEING AS HOW THE MOISTURE PROMISED IN PREVIOUS
RUNS WAS NOT DELIVERED. NEVERTHELESS PLENTY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE ENCOUNTERED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM SAN JUAN CAME
OUT AT 2 INCHES AND IS CONFIRMED BY THE SOUNDER. IT IS NOT CLEAR
IF VIGOROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO FORM OVER THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT DOES SEEMS PRUDENT NOT TO LOWER THOSE
POPS UNTIL AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OVER THE AREA CAN BE DETERMINED.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH 13/16Z...WITH A PASSING SHRA CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ FROM 16/06Z-16/14Z.
SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR TOMORROW
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPORARY MVFR CONDS AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR
CONDS ACROSS TJMZ BETWEEN 16/16Z-16/23Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. LLVL WIND FLOW TO REMAIN ENE AT 15-20G25KTS FOR
NEXT 24 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all. I am ok as I survived the quake earlier this morning.More details at the thread on the Geology forum. viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107389&hilit=&p=1982082#p1982082


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
614 AM AST SUN MAY 16 2010

.UPDATE...SEAS AT BUOY 41043 ARE STILL AROUND 7.5 FEET. WITHOUT
ANY OTHER OBSERVATIONS OR RECENT SHIP REPORTS HAVE TO ASSUME THAT
7 FT SEAS ARE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS. SO WILL
EXTEND SCA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NEW CWF AND MWW ALREADY ISSUED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM AST SUN MAY 16 2010/

SYNOPSIS...SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL AT MID LEVELS WITH ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS AT UPPER LEVELS.

DISCUSSION...AFTER THE BIG SHAKING EARLIER THIS MORNING THINGS
HAVE FINALLY QUIET DOWN. REFER TO SPS FOR DETAILS ON EARTHQUAKE.
PLEASE REPORT ANY DAMAGES TO THE PR SEISMIC NETWORK OR THE USGS.
RESIDENTS OF PR SHOULD INSPECT THEIR HOMES LATER THIS MORNING FOR
ANY POSSIBLE DAMAGES.

PRES GRADIENT HAS FINALLY RELAX SOMEWHAT WITH AN 0640Z ACARS
SOUNDINGS INDICATING 10-20 KT EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3KM WITH
FURTHER WEAKENING EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BETTER SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE THAN IN PAST DAYS WITH A SLIGHTLY
BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ACROSS WRN PR THIS AFTERNOON.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED SHRA
ACTIVITY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS DEEP
MOISTURE (PWATS GREATER THAN 2.0 INCHES) IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
MON MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU TUE WITH
SHARP DRYING INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS MID WEEK (WED-THU) WITH
ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND. LACK OF SYNOPTIC
LIFT SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE AND SHORT-LIVED.

LATEST 00Z ECMWF/GFS MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TC ACROSS
THE SWRN CARIBBEAN TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MAY 23-24.
WHILE THIS COULD BE A FALSE ALARM THAT MODELS TYPICALLY THROW AT
US IT IS JUST AN INDICATION THAT THE 2010 ATLC HURRICANE SEASON IS
FAST APPROACHING AND PERHAPS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TC DEVELOPMENT
LIE AHEAD. THE 2010 NOAA ATLC HURRICANE OUTLOOK WILL BE RELEASED
PUBLICLY THU MAY 20.




AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL
TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA BETWEEN 16/16Z-16/23Z.
EXPECT LLVL WIND FLOW TO REMAIN ENE AT 10-15 KTS.

MARINE...10-15 KT FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY. SEAS AT
BUOY 41043 AND 42060 ARE STILL AROUND 2.2 AND 1.5 METERS
RESPECTIVELY. SEAS EXPECTED TO COME DOWN QUICKLY LATER TODAY.

[msbee]

glad you are OK, Luis

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1025 AM AST SUN MAY 16 2010

.DISCUSSION...MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS. A FEW MANAGED TO MOVE
INLAND ALONG THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO DURING
THE MORNING PRODUCING RAINFALL ESTIMATES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF MAUNABO AND PATILLAS. LATEST SJU
SOUNDING INDICATING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH SHOULD AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTION SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL
TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NEAR
TJMZ AND TJBQ FROM 16/17Z UNTIL 16/23Z DUE TO SCATTERED LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LLVL WIND FLOW TO
REMAIN ENE AT 10-15 KTS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
322 PM AST SUN MAY 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY EXTENDING
INTO THE LOCAL REGION LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND PROBABLY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND PROBABLY LINGERING
THROUGH TUESDAY AND AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY...A
GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. DESPITE A TENDENCY FOR MID LEVEL RIDGING...BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE...OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND
LEFTOVER VENTILATION FROM WESTERLIES AT UPPER LEVELS...SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST AREAS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EACH DAY. LOOKING
AHEAD...BRIEF OVERALL DRYING "MAY" OCCUR FOR THE SECOND PART OF
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES
AGAIN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT MOST LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. WE WILL BE DROPPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT PRECAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

[tropicana]

Regional Weather Summary
Sun May 16 2010

Sunday's Highs and rain (if any)

Piarco, C. Trinidad 34.0C 94F 8.0mm
Crown Point, Tobago 33.5C 93F trace

Point Salines, Grenada 32.2C 90F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 32.0C 90F 3.3mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 31.7C 89F 13.2mm
Hewannora, St Lucia 32.0C 90F trace
Vigie, St Lucia 31.8C 89F 2.3mm

Melville Hall, Dominica 29.8C 86F 17.6mm
Canefield, Dominica 28.2C 83F 14.3mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 31.3C 88F 10.1mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 30.4C 86F 3.0mm (estimated)

Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.6C 87F 2.7mm
VC Bird, Antigua 30.7C 87F 14.1mm
St Maarten, VI 30.7C 87F 0.1mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 30.6C 87F 0.5mm

Norman Manley, Jamaica 32.6C 91F
Sangster, Montego Bay, Jamaica 33.2C 92F
Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 33.0C 92F
Havana, Cuba 32.5C 91F

Nassau, Bahamas 30.6C 87F
Hamilton, Bermuda 24.5C 76F

Hato, Curacao 32.6C 91F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 31.4C 88F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 33.6C 93F

Cayenne, Guyana 30.0C 86F 1.2mm ( 55mm previous 24 hours)