ARABIAN SEA : CYCLONIC STORM BANDU (02A)

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 60.1E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 57.2E, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS ROTATING
CYCLONICALLY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES AND A 160146Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SUGGEST A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. THIS
LOCATION IS CONSISTENT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES THAT ARE
PROVIDING FAVORABLE VENTING YET ELEVATED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[bvigal]

Yes, it's almost to E Africa, but still interesting to watch...while across Africa, looks very quiet.

[Macrocane]

Finally some hints of activity in the Northern Hemisphere after more than two months of inactivity.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 57.2E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 56.5E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS WELL DEFINED LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IN APPROXIMATELY
20KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW SOURCE
THAT IS PROVIDING GOOD VENTING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

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[HURAKAN]

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[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 56.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 56.9E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DEFINED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH WEAK
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, A 171525Z SSMIS 37V IMAGE
INDICATES A BROAD, WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE SSMIS WIND PRODUCT ALSO SUPPORTS A WEAK
LLCC AT THIS TIME WITH 10-15 KNOTS WINDS AND ISOLATED 15-20 KNOT
WINDS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS A MOIST ENVELOPE
WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR WEST AND NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LOW
ANALYZED DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE
DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH POSITIONED
OVER PAKISTAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert



SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5N 55.7E TO 14.4N 51.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 182200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 55.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0N
55.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 55.1E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. AN 181721Z
METOP-A IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A STRENGTHENING, WELL-DEFINED LLCC
WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE 181721Z ASCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS SHOWED
A SMALL, TIGHT LLCC WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND 30-35
KNOT WINDS DISPLACED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING, AIDED BY THE ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND IMPROVED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
YEMEN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

[HURAKAN]

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[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[HURAKAN]

Nice structure

[HURAKAN]

WTIO32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 11.3N 53.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 53.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 11.8N 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 12.7N 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 13.4N 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 13.5N 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 13.5N 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 53.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE GUARDAFUL, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE
SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED AS
EVIDENCED ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INCLUDING A 190944Z
TRMM AND A 191020Z AMSU-B PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED
FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND FROM A NEARBY SHIP
OBSERVATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 02A IS UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AS SHOWN ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. HOWEVER, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PREVENTING
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.
TC 02A IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE RELATIVELY
COOLER GULF OF ADEN AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THEN DISSIPATE BY TAU 72.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN WIDE DISAGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS
BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST AND GFS TO THE WEST. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS AND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
182221Z MAY 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 182230).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
01B (LAILA) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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[HURAKAN]

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[P.K.]

[2] THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA OFF SOMALIA COAST MOVED NORTHWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 19TH MAY,2010 NEAR LAT. 11.0°N AND LONG. 54.0°E, ABOUT 350 KM OF ALULA (63200), SOMALIA. IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN DURING NEXT 2-3 DAYS.



CONVECTIVE CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM HAVE ORGANIZED DURING PAST 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS T1.5. THE SUSTAINED SURFACE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER WEST ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN 8.0°N AND 11.0°N AND TO THE WEST OF 56.0°E.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO32 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 11.5N 52.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 52.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 11.8N 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 12.2N 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 12.1N 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.9N 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 52.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM EAST OF
CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A
191800Z PGTW FIX AND A 191501Z SSMIS PASS. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF 2.5 FROM
PGTW. TC 02A IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. IN CONTRAST TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, THE CYCLONE IS NOW
EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION WHILE MOVING SLIGHTLY POLEWARD
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE A WEAKENING IN THE STEERING
RIDGE INDUCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THEREAFTER, LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT AND
MOVE THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, CARRYING
THE SYSTEM OVER LAND. UNDER THIS SCENARIO, TC 02A SHOULD WEAKEN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOMALI PENINSULA, AND PASSAGE OVER LAND.
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WHICH EACH OTHER. THIS
FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS, WHICH APPEARS TO BE ANALYZING THE STORM
CIRCULATION AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES CORRECTLY AND PRESENTS A SOLUTION
CONSISTENT WITH ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 01B (LAILA) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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[HURAKAN]

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[HURAKAN]

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[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 MAY 2010 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 11:39:33 N Lon : 52:42:56 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 988.2mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.3 3.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -61.7C Cloud Region Temp : -57.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.79 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Iune]

upgraded to a deep depression:
[2] THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA OFF SOMALIA COAST REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY, INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 1800 UTC OF 19TH MAY, 2010 NEAR LAT. 11.5°N AND LONG. 53.5°E, ABOUT 280 KM OF ALULA (63200), SOMALIA. IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN.



CONVECTIVE CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM HAVE ORGANIZED DURING PAST 12 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS T2.0. THE SUSTAINED SURFACE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER WEST ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN 9.0°N AND 15.0°N AND TO THE WEST OF 59.0°E.