Global model runs discussion

[ColdFusion]

Because of this, I have decided to start issuing tropical weather discussions starting on Tuesday morning, May 18th.

Everything that I have looked at thus far continues to point towards an above average hurricane season with multiple threats or landfalls on the US coastline and the Caribbean islands.

Where are you going to start issuing discussions at?

Crownweather.com

I can't find any credentials on the poster or the website. Just amateurs like the rest of us (well, most of us) I think.

[crownweather]

Looks like the individual that posted that copied/pasted what I wrote in my tropical weather discussion. Direct link to the discussions: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325 and my 2010 hurricane outlook: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=2113

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services

Because of this, I have decided to start issuing tropical weather discussions starting on Tuesday morning, May 18th.

Everything that I have looked at thus far continues to point towards an above average hurricane season with multiple threats or landfalls on the US coastline and the Caribbean islands.

Where are you going to start issuing discussions at?

[cycloneye]

Nothing on the EURO model for the next ten days.

00 UTC ECMWF Loop

[Macrocane]

Looks like the individual that posted that copied/pasted what I wrote in my tropical weather discussion. Direct link to the discussions: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325 and my 2010 hurricane outlook: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=2113

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services

That's why I asked, because I read your discussion the same day before that post and it seemed suspicious

And on topic again, it seems that this may be the second year in a row without a May storm in the EPAC.

[blp]

Still out there in the long range but GFS is showing something tonight around the time of the MJO pulse. I need to see the EURO before I jump on it.

00Z GFS 168hr



204hr


264hr. This would be the worst case scenario for this year in my opinion. Right over Haiti.

[meteorologyman]

and "IF" this did pan out, that storm is belined right where Joe Bastardi mention where majority storms would go.

[cycloneye]

Is the first time this year that GFS is not alone. The ECMWF model shows something but of course,we have to wait for more runs to see if it will trend towards this scenario or it bulks away from this.Here is an excerpt of this morning's discussion by the NWS San Juan about this.

LATEST 00Z ECMWF/GFS MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TC ACROSS
THE SWRN CARIBBEAN TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MAY 23-24.
WHILE THIS COULD BE A FALSE ALARM THAT MODELS TYPICALLY THROW AT
US IT IS JUST AN INDICATION THAT THE 2010 ATLC HURRICANE SEASON IS
FAST APPROACHING AND PERHAPS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TC DEVELOPMENT
LIE AHEAD. THE 2010 NOAA ATLC HURRICANE OUTLOOK WILL BE RELEASED
PUBLICLY THU MAY 20.

[gatorcane]

Even by the end of day 7 on the 06Z GFS, the low is starting to form in the SW Caribbean coinciding to the arrival of the wet-phase of the MJO. It would still be about a week before the official start of the season but it is a reminder the season is almost here:

You can also see the low start to form in the SW Carb in this animation:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

168 hours:


240 hours:

[wxman57]

Probably another GFS false alarm. Don't see anything on the ECMWF, either. GFS does this every May.

[NDG]

Yeap, the GFS does this every year in May in the southern Caribbean so chances of it materializing are probably a trace to nothing, but last night's ECMWF did show a 1006mb low pressure forming off of Nicaragua and the CMC also showed development but a bit farther east closer to Hispaniola, both on their 7-10 day range.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS at 144 hours.

[blp]

00Z NOGAPS 180hr

[JonathanBelles]

I'm beginning to look more and more into the period between the 21st and the end of the month. MJO is going to be upward, and shear is forecast to decrease. SST(A)'s are high across the caribbean.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF is on board with SW Caribbean development

Finnally,I wanted another model besides the GFS to show something and by having the EURO on board it gives plenty of truthness that something may develop.Also,it tries to develop something north of the Bahamas.

144 hours



168 hours



192 hours

[KWT]

Wow....

ECM making 2 systems in May, that really is quite interesting.

Anyway I think its a bit hard to just write-off this as something the GFS is creating if other models are at least suggesting something could develop as well.

I'd still think this is early models creating something based on much improving upper conditions, whether or not it actually occurs is another matter totally, but its quite interesting to see the first low with multiple model support.

[Macrocane]

GFS and ECMWF are showing the possibility of the first EPAC tropical cyclone of the season this week although they're predicting different tracks, intensities and dates.

GFS 06z 48 hours

Euro 00z run 120 hours

[gatorcane]

Checked model guidance. Not much of a heartbeat in the Atlantic over the next 7-10 days, but that is expected this time of year.

[gatorcane]

Checked the various models again, still not much out there for the next 7-10 days at least, again no surprise. Even the GFS is failing to show its typical CAT 5 in the SW Caribbean at 384 hours.

[KWT]

Yeah models are all quiet, as somewhat expected at this time of year, so looking like a slower start then 05...shock horror

[cycloneye]

Of course this is way ahead in time and is only a run and we have to see other models joining,but if it pans out,it would be a big nightmare in the GOM and we know why.