Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST MON MAY 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY EXTENDS INTO THE
LOCAL REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES TO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
IN FACT...THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. DUE TO THE
RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE
GENERALLY MINIMAL. PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE 2.0 INCHES FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AID TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
PCPN AND STORMS WITH HIGH ECHO TOPS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE
PROVIDED BY THE DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN...INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. SEVERAL TROPICAL
WAVES ARE DEPICTED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BUT ALL
OF THEM WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO WITH LITTLE
EFFECTS...IF ANY...ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES AS AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SPREADS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHRA...POSSIBLE TSRA AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL THROUGH 17/23Z.
LLVL WIND FLOW WILL BECOME GENERALLY E TO ESE AT 10 TO 20 KTS.

[Gustywind]

[msbee]

Good Morning
Heavy rain showers in St. Maarten this morning.

[tropicana]

Good Morning
Heavy rain showers in St. Maarten this morning.

yes indeed barbara, so far 7mm at Juliana Airport in St Maarten.

[Gustywind]

It's raining nicely here too, we're glad for our plants, trees...

[cycloneye]

Raining in San Juan and in other parts of PR.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
146 PM AST MON MAY 17 2010

PRC021-029-031-033-061-127-137-139-172045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0116.100517T1746Z-100517T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-
CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-
146 PM AST MON MAY 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...
CATANO...SAN JUAN AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 142 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AFFECTING
INLAND SECTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. THESE SHOWERS WERE
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN JUST AN HOUR AND CAUSE FLOODING
OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

THIS ADVISORY ALERTS THE PUBLIC TO FLOODING WHICH IS GENERALLY AN
INCONVENIENCE (NOT LIFE THREATENING) TO THOSE LIVING IN THE AFFECTED
AREA. ISSUED WHEN HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW
LYING PLACES IN URBAN AREAS. ALSO USED IF SMALL RURAL OR URBAN
STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OR EXCEED BANKFULL. SOME DAMAGES TO
HOMES OR ROADS COULD OCCUR.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
232 PM AST MON MAY 17 2010

PRC029-037-053-069-089-103-119-172130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0117.100517T1832Z-100517T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LUQUILLO PR-NAGUABO PR-CEIBA PR-CANOVANAS PR-FAJARDO PR-HUMACAO PR-
RIO GRANDE PR-
232 PM AST MON MAY 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IN FOR THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LUQUILLO...NAGUABO...CEIBA...CANOVANAS...FAJARDO...HUMACAO AND
RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 229 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS
FALLEN IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE LAST HOUR WITH ONE TO THREE
INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA. A USGS SENSOR SHOWED THAT QUEBRADA
GUABA IN NAGUABO WAS JUST HALF A FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITH WATER
LEVELS CONTINUING TO RISE.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC037-053-172145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0028.100517T1948Z-100517T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
348 PM AST MON MAY 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
CEIBA
FAJARDO

* UNTIL 545 PM AST

* AT 340 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF THE EL YUNQUE
RAIN FOREST...WHICH IS LEADING TO RAPID RISES IN THE RIO FAJARDO AND
ITS TRIBUTARIES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT FLASH FLOODING NEAR THE RIO
FAJARDO AND ITS TRIBUTARIES IN CEIBA AND FAJARDO THROUGH AT LEAST
545 PM AST. IN ADDITION...DUE TO SATURATED SOILS...MUDSLIDES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1833 6561 1827 6566 1825 6573 1830 6577
1831 6570 1835 6564

$$

SR

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

[cycloneye]

There is a interesting paragraph that I highlighted that we have to watch.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 PM AST MON MAY 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS
OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MID WEEK AND WILL INTERACT
WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE
A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF WEDNESDAY...A MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. DESPITE A TENDENCY FOR SOME MID
LEVEL RIDGING...THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...DECENT SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND LEFTOVER VENTILATION FROM
WESTERLIES AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AT UPPER LEVELS...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EACH DAY. FOR
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT ADDITIONAL
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING.

LOOKING AHEAD...STILL APPEARS THAT BRIEF OVERALL DRYING "MAY"
OCCUR FOR THE SECOND PART OF WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...
BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND
BEYOND...WITH THE "POTENTIAL" FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF
ACTIVE WEATHER AND "POTENTIAL" HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY AS WE TRANSITION INTO LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. IT IS MAY IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. STAY TUNED.



&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
PR TAF SITES AT LEAST UNTIL 17/23Z. INTERMITTENT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PASSING
SHRA OR TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ. AFTER
17/23Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF
SITES. LLVL WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN ESE AT 10-20KTS...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
444 PM AST MON MAY 17 2010

PRC021-029-031-033-061-127-137-139-172245-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0118.100517T2044Z-100517T2245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-
CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-
444 PM AST MON MAY 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...
CATANO...SAN JUAN AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 645 PM AST

AT 440 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING
AREAS...AS WELL AS THE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL
REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH 645 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 PM AST MON MAY 17 2010

PRC037-053-069-089-103-119-172330-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0119.100517T2139Z-100517T2330Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LUQUILLO PR-NAGUABO PR-CEIBA PR-FAJARDO PR-HUMACAO PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
539 PM AST MON MAY 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LUQUILLO...NAGUABO...CEIBA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 730 PM AST

AT 535 PM AST...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUED TO STREAM ACROSS SECTIONS
OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...CONTINUED
AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST 730 PM AST. IN ADDITION...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NAGUABO THROUGH 700 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC103-172300-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0029.100517T2135Z-100517T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 PM AST MON MAY 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY

IN PUERTO RICO
NAGUABO

* HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 700 PM AST

* AT 530 PM AST...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUED ACROSS THE MUNICIPALITY
OF NAGUABO AND THE RIO BLANCO REMAINED NEAR FLOOD STAGE. FOR THESE
REASONS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
MUNICIPALITY OF NAGUABO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 1828 6577 1820 6569 1817 6575 1821 6580
1828 6580

$$

SR

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
742 PM AST MON MAY 17 2010

PRC095-109-129-151-180145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0120.100517T2342Z-100518T0145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN LORENZO PR-PATILLAS PR-MAUNABO PR-YABUCOA PR-
742 PM AST MON MAY 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
SAN LORENZO...PATILLAS...MAUNABO AND YABUCOA

* UNTIL 945 PM AST

* AT 740 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO. BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING
AREAS...ALONG WITH THE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...URBAN AREAS AND
CREEKS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH 945 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[tropicana]

Regional Weather Summary
Mon May 17 2010

Monday's Highs and rain (if any)

Piarco, C. Trinidad 32.4C 90F 29.7mm
Crown Point, Tobago 31.2C 88F 4.4mm

Point Salines, Grenada 31.1C 88F 2.0mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 32.1C 90F 0.3mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 30.7C 87F 15.5mm
Hewannora, St Lucia 31.9C 90F 0.9mm
Vigie, St Lucia 31.6C 89F 8.1mm

Melville Hall, Dominica 30.4C 86F 30.5mm
Canefield, Dominica 29.4C 85F 71.7mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 31.0C 88F 26.6mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 29.0C 84F 21.8mm (estimated)

Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.6C 87F 17.9mm
VC Bird, Antigua 30.2C 86F 1.4mm
St Maarten, VI 29.7C 86F 7.0mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 30.6C 87F 74mm (record rain)

Norman Manley, Jamaica 33.2C 92F
Sangster, Montego Bay, Jamaica 33.5C 93F
Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 29.8C 86F 3.3mm
Havana, Cuba 29.1C 84F

Nassau, Bahamas 30.0C 86F
Hamilton, Bermuda 24.8C 77F

Hato, Curacao 32.2C 90F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 33.8C 93F

Cayenne, Guyana 29.0C 84F 36mm

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
946 PM AST MON MAY 17 2010

PRC075-113-180245-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0121.100518T0146Z-100518T0245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-
946 PM AST MON MAY 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
JUANA DIAZ AND PONCE

* UNTIL 1045 PM AST

* AT 943 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING
THE ADVISORY AREA.

* AT 943 PM AST AN EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA WITH FLOODING IN THE BALDARIOTY AND AVENIDA RUPERT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. RAIN SHOULD END BY 10:30 PM ALTHOUGH LATER SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR AND ARE HARD TO ESTIMATE AT NIGHT. JUST ONE
FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE
ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A rainy day here with many flash flood advisories is expected.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
435 AM AST TUE MAY 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE MAINLY
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...THE DOPPLER
RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDING
INDICATED PWAT VALUES ABOVE 2.0 INCHES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST
MIMIC-TPW IMAGES ALSO SUGGEST THAT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUS...EXPECT ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORT-LIVED DRY
TREND IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THURSDAY...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AGAIN LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL AID TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WITH HIGH
ECHO TOPS TODAY.

LOOKING WELL AHEAD...THE GFS DEVELOPS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...
ONE JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE OTHER OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA BY LATE FRIDAY. THE FIRST ONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST...MAINTAINING A HUMID SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE FA UNTIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE SECOND ONES WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE MONTH.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
TISX..TIST AND TJSJ AT LEAST UNTIL 18/14Z. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL DEVELOP AFTER
18/17Z IN SHRA AND TSRA...OVER TJMZ...TJBQ. AFTER 19/01...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES. LLVL
WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN ESE AT 10-20KTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
ESPECIALLY NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS TODAY.

[cycloneye]

Record Rainfall in San Juan

Here are the stats about the rainfall of yesterday and also the stats of the most wet years.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=record100517

[bvigal]

Good morning, Luis!
{{{shiver}}} Just look at those "wettest Mays" busy hurricane years in there:
2004,2005,1998 (Georges!),1979 (David-Cat5 EC), 1956(Betsy-Cat3 Puerto Rico),1996(Bertha-C2/3 Puerto Rico, Hortense-C2 Puerto Rico), hope it's just coincidence!

[cycloneye]

Good morning, Luis!
{{{shiver}}} Just look at those "wettest Mays" busy hurricane years in there:
2004,2005,1998 (Georges!),1979 (David-Cat5 EC), 1956(Betsy-Cat3 Puerto Rico),1996(Bertha-C2/3 Puerto Rico, Hortense-C2 Puerto Rico), hope it's just coincidence!

Yes,very interesting.Also,some of the analog years that the experts have talked about that may match what 2010 may look like.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
750 AM AST TUE MAY 18 2010

PRC007-009-019-021-025-029-031-035-037-041-043-045-047-053-061-063-
069-077-085-103-105-119-127-129-135-139-181445-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0126.100518T1150Z-100518T1445Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CAGUAS PR-CIDRA PR-COAMO PR-CAYEY PR-COROZAL PR-COMERIO
PR-AIBONITO PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-BARRANQUITAS PR-JUNCOS PR-GURABO
PR-NARANJITO PR-TOA ALTA PR-SAN LORENZO PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-LAS
PIEDRAS PR-NAGUABO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CEIBA PR-CANOVANAS PR-FAJARDO
PR-CAROLINA PR-HUMACAO PR-SAN JUAN PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
750 AM AST TUE MAY 18 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...CIDRA...COAMO...CAYEY...COROZAL...COMERIO...
AIBONITO...AGUAS BUENAS...BARRANQUITAS...JUNCOS...GURABO...
NARANJITO...TOA ALTA...SAN LORENZO...TRUJILLO ALTO...LAS
PIEDRAS...NAGUABO...GUAYNABO...CEIBA...CANOVANAS...FAJARDO...
CAROLINA...HUMACAO...SAN JUAN AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 1045 AM AST

* AT 745 AM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES AND U.S.G.S. RAIN GAGES INDICATED
THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE
ADVISORY AREA AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AT
LEAST 1 INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH 1045 AM. IN ADDITION...ROCK AND
MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...STREETS...ROADS...AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS...AND
WILL RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS
AND UNDERPASSES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.