BAY OF BENGAL - CYCLONIC STORM LAILA (01B)

[KWT]

Looking very good right now, certainly is strengthening with a nice cyclonic set-up with the low winding in the deep convection.

I'd go with 40kts right now and I think it will probably get quite strong.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171451ZMAY2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 11.6N 87.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 87.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 12.1N 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 12.6N 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 13.3N 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.3N 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.2N 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.9N 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.5N 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 86.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT TC 01B HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A
171600Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC IN THE 171600Z ASCAT
IMAGE AS WELL AS THE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND IS POSITIONED ON
THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 171600Z ASCAT 25 KM IMAGE SHOWING
35-KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE LATEST
KNES DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. THE 171800Z DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND DEMS INDICATE 30 KNOTS. TC 01B IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
36. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RE-CURVE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD AS THE
STR RE-ORIENTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL INDIA AFTER TAU 48. MODEL TRACKERS
ARE LIMITED TO NOGAPS, GFS, GFDN AND WBAR BUT SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 171500Z MAY
10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 171500). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

17/2030 UTC 11.8N 85.6E T2.5/2.5 01B -- Bay of Bengal

35 knots

[HURAKAN]

Continues to improve

[thetruesms]

This one's wrapped up pretty well today

[HURAKAN]

This one's wrapped up pretty well today

Yep!

24 hrs ago:

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... 1st visible

[HURAKAN]

Ramping up

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 MAY 2010 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 11:52:53 N Lon : 85:45:58 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 988.2mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.5 3.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -82.9C Cloud Region Temp : -81.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[salmon123]

The deep depression over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas moved westwards, intensified
into a Cyclonic Storm ‘ LAILA’ and lay centered at 0530 hrs IST of today,the 18 th May 2010 over southeast and
adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal near Latitude 11.50N and 86.50E, about 700 km east-southeast of
Chennai, 800 km southeast of Visakhapatnam and 1300 km south-southwest of Kolkata.

The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the
system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction towards Andhra Pradesh coast.


Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track
and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
Date/Time(IST) Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E) Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)
18-05-2010/0530 11.5/86.5 65-75 gusting to 85
18-05-2010/1130 11.5/86.0 65-75 gusting to 85
18-05-2010/1730 12.0/85.5 75-85gusting to 95
18-05-2010/2330 12.5/85.0 75-85gusting to 95
19-05-2010/0530 13.0/84.5 85-95 gusting to 105
19-05-2010/1730 14.0/83.5 85-95 gusting to 105
20-05-2010/0530 15.0/82.5 95-105 gusting to 115
20-05-2010/1730 16.0/82.0 95-105 gusting to 115
21-05-2010/0530 17.0/81.0 75-85gusting to 95


Under the influence of this system, coastal areas of north Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, are likely to
experience fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls from 19th May 2010. Gale force wind
with speed reaching 65-75 kmph likely to commence along and off Andhra Pradesh coast from today,the
18th night.

Sea condition will be high to very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast from today the 18th night.
Fishermen are advised not venture into the open sea.

The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts. are being informed accordingly.

[salmon123]

BOB 01/2010/05 Dated: 18.05.2010

Time of issue: 1045 hours IST



Sub: Cyclonic Storm ‘LAILA’ over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal:

Cyclone Alert.



The cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 18th May 2010 over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 12.00N and 85.50E, about 570 km east-southeast of Chennai, 690 km southeast of Visakhapatnam and 1250 km south-southwest of Kolkata.

The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction for some more time and then move in anorthwesterly to northerly direction during next 72 hours towards Andhra Pradesh coast close to Machhalipatinam.

Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:


Date/Time(IST)
Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)

18-05-2010/0830
12.0/85.5
65-75 gusting to 85

18-05-2010/1130
12.0/85.0
75-85 gusting to 95

18-05-2010/1730
12.5/84.5
85-95 gusting to 105

18-05-2010/2330
13.0/83.5
85-95 gusting to 105

19-05-2010/0530
13.5/83.0
95-105 gusting to 115

19-05-2010/1730
14.0/82.0
95-105 gusting to 115

20-05-2010/0530
14.5/81.5
105-115 gusting to 125

20-05-2010/1730
15.5/81.5
115-125 gusting to 135

21-05-2010/0530
16.5/82.5
115-125 gusting to 135


Under the influence of this system, coastal areas of north Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh are likely to experience fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls from today, the 18th May 2010 evening/night. Gale force wind with speed reaching 65-75 kmph likely to commence along and off Andhra Pradesh coast from today, the 18th night. It may increase subsequently as the system moves closer to coast. Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph likely along and off north Tamil Nadu coast from today night.

Sea condition will be high to very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast and very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu coast. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea off these coasts.



The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts. are being informed accordingly.

Next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 18th May 2010.

[KWT]

This system probably is close to 65kts already, its looking very good and with real bath water beneath it, there is plenty of fuel to get this thing really pumped up. Wouldn't surprise me to see this one go towards the 100kt region.

[pepeavilenho]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 977.6mb/ 63.0kt

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ugaap]

TROPICAL STORM ‘LAILA’ ADVISORY NO. FOUR ISSUED AT 1200 UTC OF 18TH MAY 2010 BASED ON 0900 UTC CHARTS OF 18TH MAY.

http://www.webcitation.org/5ponQirVh

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 12.3N 84.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 84.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 12.9N 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 13.6N 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.7N 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.0N 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.4N 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.7N 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.7N 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 84.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT CONVECTION AROUND TC 01B HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE
AND DEEPEN. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T3.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES AND FROM NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. TC 01B IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RECURVE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR REORIENTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL INDIA
AFTER TAU 48. THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS (NOGAPS, GFS,
EGRR AND ECMWF) SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THE GFDN AND WBAR INDICATE A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UP TO TAU 48
BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL, THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS OF INDIA, CROSSING INTO BANGLADESH AS A WEAK 35-KNOT TC BY TAU
120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//
NNNN

[KWT]

I think this system is a little stronger then the 40kts estimated right now, I'd go as high as 50kts right now at least, the structure looks very good to me.

Still a landfall of 70kts certainly would be interesting for that area...

[HURAKAN]

NRL - 50 knots

[KWT]

Yep as I expected, does look like its around 50-55kts right now...system looks like it might have some weak shear on it actually at the moment which may just slightly limit its total strength.