Tornado and Severe Weather Outbreak May 18-20

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Tornado and Severe Weather Outbreak May 18-20

#1 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue May 18, 2010 4:59 pm

Ft. Worth NWS is ramping up their info for the moderate risk of severe t-storms tomorrow afternoon/evening in the Red River Valley.

New graphics and a video briefing up on their home page.

Tomorrow afternoon/evening may be a rough time in my neck of the woods... :eek:
Last edited by Texas Snowman on Fri May 21, 2010 12:32 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Moderate Risk for North Texas 5-19

#2 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue May 18, 2010 5:03 pm

Sherman/Denison TV met Steve LaNore of KXII Channel 12 is getting on board with this.

Here's a portion of his concern from his afternoon blog post on KXII.com :

"The potential for a significant and possibly major severe weather event is in the cards for Wednesday/Wednesday night. Most of Texoma is in a moderate risk according to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for Wednesday/Wednesday night. The situation is not identical to May 10, but quite similar so this could be another dangerous weather day.

I have posted a blog about this; the basics show a fairly textbook combination: increasing wind shear, upper level trough, surface front and dry line, abundant moisture, and afternoon heating. These will lead to rapid destabilization of the atmosphere during the day
."
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Re: Moderate Risk for North Texas 5-19

#3 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue May 18, 2010 5:12 pm

I always get a little antsy with May severe weather outbreaks in North Texas.

Out of the 10 deadliest Texas tornadoes (as listed by Amarillo NWS), 7 have occurred in May.

And if you add in the Amarillo NWS' "honorable mention" of the Lubbock tornado, it's 8 of the 11 deadliest twisters have occurred in May.

Here's the link to that list: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ama/?n=top10_tornadoes

And that list doesn't even include a notation of the May 15, 1896 F5 tornado that struck Sherman, Texas (located five miles south of my Denison home) and killed 73 people.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_1896_t ... k_sequence
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#4 Postby lester » Tue May 18, 2010 5:15 pm

I wouldn't be surprised if this is upgraded to a High Risk tomorrow

Stay safe all who are affected by this event :flag:
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Re: Moderate Risk for North Texas 5-19

#5 Postby breeze » Tue May 18, 2010 6:24 pm

I agree - everyone stay safe! Already a tornado warning in N. Texas:


Tornado Warning

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
612 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

TXC205-341-182330-
/O.CON.KAMA.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-100518T2330Z/
HARTLEY TX-MOORE TX-
612 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
MOORE AND EAST CENTRAL HARTLEY COUNTIES...

AT 608 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6
MILES WEST OF DUMAS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DUMAS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW. IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

&&

LAT...LON 3575 10220 3594 10223 3602 10175 3571 10176
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 263DEG 20KT 3586 10205

$$

LG
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#6 Postby mcallum177 » Tue May 18, 2010 8:42 pm

30 hours from now the NAM is show no capping and high cape over NTX

should we expect any weather after 10pm and before 2pm?
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Re:

#7 Postby somethingfunny » Wed May 19, 2010 2:50 am

mcallum177 wrote:30 hours from now the NAM is show no capping and high cape over NTX

should we expect any weather after 10pm and before 2pm?


The evening news Futurecasts showed the Panhandle storms drying up but a possibility of some storms along the warm front as it moves across the area overnight...since then the NWS has removed our overnight POPs however, so I don't think we'll see anything until the daytime heating starts to pop them off. NWS says "30% after 7am"
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#8 Postby wx247 » Wed May 19, 2010 6:33 am

Outlook this morning includes a 60% severe hail risk. That is nuts!!! It is also primarily north of the Red River, although North Texas is included in the significant risk. Good luck down that way today!
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#9 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed May 19, 2010 9:10 am

Mentioned a possible upgrade to High Risk at 0600Z. 60% hail tells you that large hail is almost certain, although you cannot get a high risk upgrade on hail.
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Re:

#10 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed May 19, 2010 9:39 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Mentioned a possible upgrade to High Risk at 0600Z. 60% hail tells you that large hail is almost certain, although you cannot get a high risk upgrade on hail.


Yeah, not liking the way this is setting up in my backyard.

At the very least, hail is going to be a problem. And after seeing the video of the OKC hailstorm the other day, I'm not eager to see baseball size hail up close and personal.

Let alone a tornado - a wall cloud three miles north of my house on May 10 was close enough...
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Re: Moderate Risk for North Texas 5-19

#11 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed May 19, 2010 11:36 am

BREAKING NEWS: HIGH RISK ISSUED for central Oklahoma
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Re: Moderate Risk for North Texas 5-19

#12 Postby Bunkertor » Wed May 19, 2010 11:37 am

SPC AC 191630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

Image

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL OK...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
OVER A LARGE PART OF OK AND N TX...


...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM SW KS INTO THE LWR MS VLY...


...SIGNIFICANT SVR TSTM OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR A LARGE PART OF OK AND ADJACENT N TX...


...SYNOPSIS...
NE CO UPR LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY E INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z THU AS
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING SSW INTO NM SWEEPS E INTO
CNTRL OK/N CNTRL TX. BAND OF SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONIC WSW FLOW ON
S SIDE OF LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN PLNS...ATOP MODERATE SSWLY
LLJ. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SE FROM TX PANHANDLE SFC
LOW SHOULD EDGE SLOWLY NE THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH MOVEMENT OFFSET
BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. S OF THE FRONT AND E OF LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE
OVER THE ERN PANHANDLE...LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NWD WITH LLJ.

...SRN PLNS/ARKLATEX THROUGH EARLY WED...
OVERNIGHT OK MCS SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN AS CONTINUES GENERALLY ESE
INTO NW AR EARLY THIS AFTN. ELEVATED STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL...LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ATOP W/E
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY THE MCS.

BY MID TO LATE AFTN...COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING...CONTINUED LOW LVL
MOISTURE INFLOW...AND LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT WITH NM UPR TROUGH
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT NEW SFC-BASED STORMS NEAR INTERSECTION OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH EWD-MOVING LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE OVER WRN OK. A
BIT LATER...SCTD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXTEND SWD ON THE TROUGH/DRY
LINE INTO NW TX...AND EWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO CNTRL OK.

THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS GIVEN 40-50 KT DEEP WSWLY
SHEAR AND SBCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. THE SETUP APPEARS MOST
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE...RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING INTENSE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL. GIVEN SIZABLE LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT TO
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR FRONT...A
COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR.

WITH THE LLJ LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES
AND THE CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF NM TROUGH...EXPECT THE OK/N TX
STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A LARGE MCS EARLY TONIGHT. COUPLED WITH
INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT HI LVL FLOW...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ESE
INTO AR BY EARLY WED...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DMGG WIND/HAIL
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

...ARKLATEX TO CNTRL GULF CST THIS AFTN...
SFC HEATING ALONG/S AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM
SRN PLNS LOW MAY SUPPORT SCTD DIURNAL STORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX SE TO
THE CNTRL GULF CST TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON
HEATING AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE BECOMING LOCALLY SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME WEAK CIN OVER REGION. AMPLE INSTABILITY/ PW WILL BE
PRESENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS/HAIL.
BUT WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/ PERSISTENCE.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 05/19/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Last edited by Bunkertor on Wed May 19, 2010 11:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Moderate Risk for North Texas 5-19

#13 Postby srainhoutx » Wed May 19, 2010 11:41 am

Bunkertor wrote:Image


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL OK...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
OVER A LARGE PART OF OK AND N TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM SW KS INTO THE LWR MS VLY...

...SIGNIFICANT SVR TSTM OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR A LARGE PART OF OK AND ADJACENT N TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
NE CO UPR LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY E INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z THU AS
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING SSW INTO NM SWEEPS E INTO
CNTRL OK/N CNTRL TX. BAND OF SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONIC WSW FLOW ON
S SIDE OF LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN PLNS...ATOP MODERATE SSWLY
LLJ. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SE FROM TX PANHANDLE SFC
LOW SHOULD EDGE SLOWLY NE THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH MOVEMENT OFFSET
BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. S OF THE FRONT AND E OF LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE
OVER THE ERN PANHANDLE...LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NWD WITH LLJ.

...SRN PLNS/ARKLATEX THROUGH EARLY WED...
OVERNIGHT OK MCS SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN AS CONTINUES GENERALLY ESE
INTO NW AR EARLY THIS AFTN. ELEVATED STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL...LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ATOP W/E
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY THE MCS.

BY MID TO LATE AFTN...COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING...CONTINUED LOW LVL
MOISTURE INFLOW...AND LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT WITH NM UPR TROUGH
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT NEW SFC-BASED STORMS NEAR INTERSECTION OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH EWD-MOVING LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE OVER WRN OK. A
BIT LATER...SCTD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXTEND SWD ON THE TROUGH/DRY
LINE INTO NW TX...AND EWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO CNTRL OK.

THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS GIVEN 40-50 KT DEEP WSWLY
SHEAR AND SBCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. THE SETUP APPEARS MOST
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE...RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING INTENSE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL. GIVEN SIZABLE LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT TO
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR FRONT...A
COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR.

WITH THE LLJ LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES
AND THE CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF NM TROUGH...EXPECT THE OK/N TX
STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A LARGE MCS EARLY TONIGHT. COUPLED WITH
INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT HI LVL FLOW...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ESE
INTO AR BY EARLY WED...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DMGG WIND/HAIL
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

...ARKLATEX TO CNTRL GULF CST THIS AFTN...
SFC HEATING ALONG/S AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM
SRN PLNS LOW MAY SUPPORT SCTD DIURNAL STORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX SE TO
THE CNTRL GULF CST TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON
HEATING AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE BECOMING LOCALLY SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME WEAK CIN OVER REGION. AMPLE INSTABILITY/ PW WILL BE
PRESENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS/HAIL.
BUT WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/ PERSISTENCE.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 05/19/2010
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Re: Moderate Risk for North Texas 5-19

#14 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed May 19, 2010 11:42 am

It's not that strongly worded for a High Risk...
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Re: Moderate Risk for North Texas 5-19

#15 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed May 19, 2010 11:43 am

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 191634
OKZ000-200200-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

PARTS OF OKLAHOMA

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

MORNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST INTO THE OZARKS REGION OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. IN THE STORMS WAKE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHILE A DRYLINE SHARPENS FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

STRONG HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL
HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE AND ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BY MID-AFTERNOON.
SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A FEW OF THE TORNADOES MAY BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR/JUST WEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN ARKANSAS BY
MID-EVENING WITH CONTINUED THREATS FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..RACY.. 05/19/2010

$$
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Re: Moderate Risk for North Texas 5-19

#16 Postby srainhoutx » Wed May 19, 2010 11:45 am

I suspect there was a lot of thought given to maintaining a Moderate Risk. Perhaps the OP could edit their Topic Title to reflect the areas of concern. :wink:
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Re: Moderate Risk for North Texas 5-19

#17 Postby KatDaddy » Wed May 19, 2010 11:57 am

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL OK...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
OVER A LARGE PART OF OK AND N TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM SW KS INTO THE LWR MS VLY...

...SIGNIFICANT SVR TSTM OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR A LARGE PART OF OK AND ADJACENT N TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
NE CO UPR LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY E INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z THU AS
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING SSW INTO NM SWEEPS E INTO
CNTRL OK/N CNTRL TX. BAND OF SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONIC WSW FLOW ON
S SIDE OF LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN PLNS...ATOP MODERATE SSWLY
LLJ. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SE FROM TX PANHANDLE SFC
LOW SHOULD EDGE SLOWLY NE THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH MOVEMENT OFFSET
BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. S OF THE FRONT AND E OF LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE
OVER THE ERN PANHANDLE...LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NWD WITH LLJ.

...SRN PLNS/ARKLATEX THROUGH EARLY WED...
OVERNIGHT OK MCS SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN AS CONTINUES GENERALLY ESE
INTO NW AR EARLY THIS AFTN. ELEVATED STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL...LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ATOP W/E
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY THE MCS.

BY MID TO LATE AFTN...COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING...CONTINUED LOW LVL
MOISTURE INFLOW...AND LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT WITH NM UPR TROUGH
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT NEW SFC-BASED STORMS NEAR INTERSECTION OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH EWD-MOVING LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE OVER WRN OK. A
BIT LATER...SCTD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXTEND SWD ON THE TROUGH/DRY
LINE INTO NW TX...AND EWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO CNTRL OK.

THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS GIVEN 40-50 KT DEEP WSWLY
SHEAR AND SBCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. THE SETUP APPEARS MOST
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE...RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING INTENSE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL. GIVEN SIZABLE LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT TO
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR FRONT...A
COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR.

WITH THE LLJ LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES
AND THE CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF NM TROUGH...EXPECT THE OK/N TX
STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A LARGE MCS EARLY TONIGHT. COUPLED WITH
INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT HI LVL FLOW...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ESE
INTO AR BY EARLY WED...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DMGG WIND/HAIL
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

...ARKLATEX TO CNTRL GULF CST THIS AFTN...
SFC HEATING ALONG/S AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM
SRN PLNS LOW MAY SUPPORT SCTD DIURNAL STORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX SE TO
THE CNTRL GULF CST TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON
HEATING AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE BECOMING LOCALLY SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME WEAK CIN OVER REGION. AMPLE INSTABILITY/ PW WILL BE
PRESENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS/HAIL.
BUT WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/ PERSISTENCE.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 05/19/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1657Z (11:57AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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#18 Postby Bunkertor » Wed May 19, 2010 12:20 pm

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Bunkertor
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#19 Postby Bunkertor » Wed May 19, 2010 12:30 pm

1 km Helicity 18z

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CrazyC83
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Re: Moderate Risk for North Texas 5-19

#20 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed May 19, 2010 1:17 pm

Current conditions in the threat area - 1:00 pm CDT (Red - city in MDT, purple - city in HIGH)

Arkansas
DeQueen - A few clouds, 76 (65)
Fayetteville - Light rainshower, 60 (57)
Fort Smith - Mostly cloudy, 72 (57)
Mena - Mostly cloudy, 70 (61)
Texarkana - Mostly cloudy, 81 (67)

Kansas
Chaunte - Light rain, 59 (55)
Dodge City - Light rain, 57 (55)
Garden City - Overcast, 63 (55)
Medicine Lodge - Mostly cloudy, 62 (59)
Wichita - Light rainshower, 60 (57)

Oklahoma
Altus - A few clouds, 81 (65)
Ardmore - Mostly cloudy, 79 (66)
Bartlesville - Overcast, 60 (57)
Clinton - Partly cloudy, 77 (61)
Enid - Light rainshower, 61 (61)
Lawton - Mostly cloudy, 79 (67)
McAlester - Mostly cloudy, 72 (63)
Muskogee - Mostly cloudy, 68 (60)
Oklahoma City - Mostly cloudy, 70 (66)
Stillwater - Overcast, 63 (60)
Tulsa - Overcast, 64 (60)
Woodward - Mostly cloudy, 64 (60)

Texas
Abilene - A few clouds, 82 (65)
Dallas - A few clouds, 81 (66)
Fort Worth - Partly cloudy, 83 (66)
Paris - Mostly cloudy, 81 (70)
Sherman - A few clouds, 82 (66)
Tyler - A few clouds, 86 (66)
Waco - A few clouds, 87 (67)
Wichita Falls - Partly cloudy, 83 (67)
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