ARABIAN SEA : CYCLONIC STORM BANDU (02A)

[HURAKAN]

Nice loop!

[HURAKAN]

Quite impressive

[HURAKAN]

Consensus

[KWT]

Lots of disagreement on the models there it has to be said, the key for this system is how much dry air it injests from the land as it gets increasingly close to land.

[HURAKAN]

Convection bursting over center

[HURAKAN]

WTIO32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 11.8N 52.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 52.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 12.0N 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 12.0N 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 11.9N 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 11.7N 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 52.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM EAST OF
CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A
192330Z PGTW FIX AND A 192200Z AMSR-E IMAGE SHOWING A DISTINCT LOW
LEVEL CENTER. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
A DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF 2.5 FROM PGTW AND LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE
EVIDENT IN THE AMSR-E IMAGE. TC 02A HAS ENTERED A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHIFTS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO REORIENT AND SLOWLY BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD, ALLOWING TC 02A TO
TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. IN THIS SCENARIO,
TC 02A SHOULD WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOMALI PENINSULA,
AND PASSAGE OVER LAND. THE NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT.
THIS FORECAST GENERALLY FAVORS THE GFS, WHICH APPEARS TO BE ANALYZING
THE STORM CIRCULATION AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES CORRECTLY AND PRESENTS
A SOLUTION CONSISTENT WITH ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FORECASTED INTRODUCTION OF
NEGATIVE INTENSITY INFLUENCES, DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS EXPECTED BY
TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 01B (LAILA) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[KWT]

Yep nice small convective burst right over the center of the systems circulation, looking pretty decent though it'll clearly struggle to keep the deep convection away from the center IMO.

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 12.4N 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 52.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 12.8N 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 12.9N 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 12.9N 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.7N 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 52.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON A 200530Z VISIBLE IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH A DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF 2.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 02A IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ADEN AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
DUE TO INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM
THE SOMALI PENINSULA, DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER WATER BY TAU 48. THE NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT.
THIS FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFS TRACK, WHICH APPEARS TO BE
ANALYZING THE STORM CIRCULATION AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES CORRECTLY AND
PRESENTS A SOLUTION CONSISTENT WITH ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION OF THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (LAILA) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTIO32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 12.6N 51.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 51.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 12.9N 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 13.0N 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 12.9N 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.6N 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 51.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T3.5 FROM PGTW, DEMS, AND KNES. TC 01B CONTINUES TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
STEERING RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS TC 01B FOLLOWS THIS PATH IT
WILL ENCOUNTER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN ANDHRA PRADESH AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER, A FORMIDABLE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REEMERGE
OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL AFTER TAU 72 AND ACCELERATE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EVENTUAL LANDFALL NEAR SOUTHEASTERN BANGLADESH.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z AND 211500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
01B (LAILA) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Slideshow of the last 12 hours

[wyq614]

IMD told us that 02A had weakened to a DEPRESSION...
JTWC...
The forecast of 02A follows a remark of 01B...

[HURAKAN]

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA OFF SOMALIA COAST MOVED NORTHWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 20TH MAY, 2010 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LAT. 12.5°N AND LONG. 52.5°E, ABOUT 180 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ALULA (63200), SOMALIA. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN.

THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. THE SUSTAINED SURFACE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER WEST ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN 10.0°N AND 14.0°N AND TO THE WEST OF 55.0°E IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 21-05-2010

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0300 UTC OF 21 MAY, 2010 BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 21 MAY, 2010 (.)

THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA OFF SOMALIA COAST REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF 21ST MAY, 2010 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LAT. 12.5°N AND LONG. 51.5°E, ABOUT 110 KM NORTHEAST OF ALULA (63200), SOMALIA. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN.

THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. THE SUSTAINED SURFACE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER WEST ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN 11.5°N AND 15.0°N AND TO THE WEST OF LONG. 54.0°E IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 12.6N 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 52.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 12.9N 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 13.1N 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 13.0N 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 12.7N 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 52.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND CONTRACT UNDER INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF A
TRANSITORY TROUGH OVER SAUDI ARABIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON A WEAKENING TREND REFLECTED IN THE PGTW DVORAK FIX OF 2.5/3.0,
AND THE DEGRADED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON A 202336Z TMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
WEAKENED STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ALL THE WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN UNDER INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND TO A LESSER DEGREE,
ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR, AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 OVER WATER.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
01B (LAILA) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[DanieleItalyRm]

Il ciclone si è intensificato, malgrado tutto non ha un nome (02A. TWO)
venti 55 nodi - 102 Km/h
raffiche 70 nodi - 130 Km/h
982 Hpa
E' sempre ben visibile la sua evoluzione dal Sat24: (visible sat link)
http://www.sat24.com/et



The sea surface temperature is very high but, in the west part of Arabian sea (Gulf of Oman and Aden) the dry air and sand weaken the tropical systems
like in the south eastern Mediterranean tropical cyclone.

modis-2005

[HURAKAN]

NRL - 55 knots