ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

The cold waters continue to expand and now it extends over 2,500 miles along the equatorial zone. It looks like La Nina doesn't want to waste time arriving.

[KWT]

Nope, fair play to the models they really have nailed it, you'd be silly to think La Nina isn't developing...

Now we hope it goes mod-strong rapidly, because if it does it could actually help to reverse the trend of a favourable Atlantic, mod/strong La Nina seasons tend to be above average....but not hyperactive....

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 5/17/10 update

No surprise the big dip to cold neutral numbers at El Nino 3.4.

Last Week Numbers

Niño 4= +0.5
Niño 3.4= +0.3
Niño 3= +0.5
Niño1+2= +0.2

This Week Numbers

Niño 4= +0.4ºC
Niño 3.4= -0.1ºC
Niño 3= 0.0ºC
Niño1+2= +0.4ºC


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[StormClouds63]

Now we hope it goes mod-strong rapidly, because if it does it could actually help to reverse the trend of a favourable Atlantic, mod/strong La Nina seasons tend to be above average....but not hyperactive....

Good point.

[cycloneye]

Now we hope it goes mod-strong rapidly, because if it does it could actually help to reverse the trend of a favourable Atlantic, mod/strong La Nina seasons tend to be above average....but not hyperactive....

Good point.

And a moderate to strong La Nina trend to focus the tracks to the south.

[KWT]

They do but I'd be worried that if we get a -ve NAO this summer that would mean a higher risk for landfalls throughout the Caribbean/US...

[cycloneye]

The Australians are at 0.0.

[brunota2003]

Wow...it just absolutely nose dived!!!

[cycloneye]

If that very cold pool of water goes to the surface,it may turn to a strong La Nina,but lets see what happens in the next couple of weeks.It appears Climate Prediction Center will proclaim ENSO as Neutral in their June 3rd monthly bulletin,actually playing catchup to the Australians that did that last week.

[cycloneye]

CFS model is taking a nose dive forecasting La Nina as early as mid-June. Also it stays in La Nina thru January.I think ahead,will the 2011 season be in La Nina?

[cycloneye]

La Nina doesnt want to waste time appearing on the scene.

[KWT]

Models seem to be suggesting an evolution akin to 1998, so that year is clearly one to follow with regards to what will happen this hurricane season, though I'd be doubtful it takes till late July for things to get going given the ENSO is already flipping to La Nina.

[cycloneye]

The IRI May updated model plume shows the dynamic models between Neutral and La Nina.

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... pdate.html




Probabilities of El Nino.Neutral and La Nina.

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... gure3.html

[Annie Oakley]

Even to a novice this is very interesting. Texas lost their Chief of Emergency Management this week-Jack Colley. He will be sorely missed.

[cycloneye]

You can see how those cold waters have been propagating eastward and towards the surface in a fast pace in the past two months.At this pace Neutral will not last long.

[KWT]

Will probably see us reach La Nina by June at this rate, the models certainly have done well with this event thus far and the evolution of the pattern.

[cycloneye]

The only question that has to be asked at this point is not when La Nina will arrive because that is a given but how strong it will be. The CFS model forecasts Weak to Moderate La Nina.

[blp]

Wow! Nino 3.4 has crossed into La Nina territory.

[cycloneye]

The SOI is in an up and down period but doing it in positive so no signs of El Nino comming back.

Daily SOI values

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/


Daily 30 day text

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[cycloneye]