EPAC / Caribbean development later this week?

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CourierPR
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Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#81 Postby CourierPR » Thu May 20, 2010 10:04 am

The AccuWeather free site notes today that a weakness will persist in the area from the western Caribbean to the Bahamas into June and that we may see more potent development after the system progged to develop near the Bahamas.
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Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#82 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 20, 2010 10:20 am

Below is a discussion by Dr Jeff Masters of Weatherunderground about the Caribbean area.

Potential serious rainfall threat to Haiti next week
Long-range forecasts from the NOGAPS model, and to a lesser extent, the ECMWF and GFS models, continue to predict an increase in moisture and decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean 4 - 6 days from now, leading to development of a tropical disturbance with heavy rains in the Western Caribbean early next week. A strong subtropical jet stream over the southern Gulf of Mexico will steer the disturbance to the north and east, and the potential exists for heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches to affect eastern Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic in the Tuesday - Thursday time frame next week. It is possible that a tropical depression could form from this tropical disturbance, though most of the models indicate that high levels of wind shear will make this improbable.
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Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#83 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 20, 2010 12:27 pm

Wow to 12z NOGAPS. It has a strong system saddly impacting Haiti.

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#84 Postby Aquawind » Thu May 20, 2010 12:34 pm

That's creepy run alright..
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Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#85 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 20, 2010 12:51 pm

The Canadian model at the 12z run has a fairly decent Caribbean system.

12z CMC Loop
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Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#86 Postby CourierPR » Thu May 20, 2010 1:05 pm

cycloneye wrote:The Canadian model at the 12z run has a fairly decent Caribbean system.

12z CMC Loop
Luis, I'm no expert but I do think that watchful waiting is prudent here. Those who would dismiss potential development could be in for a surprise. Also, once the ice is broken by the birth of the first storm, hold onto your hat because I think we're in for a wild ride over the coming months.
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#87 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 20, 2010 1:48 pm

Image

Yucatan Low
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Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#88 Postby tolakram » Thu May 20, 2010 2:00 pm

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=18

Link to the same low, lower left hand corner, with the area of disturbed weather north and east of there.
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Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#89 Postby Ivanhater » Thu May 20, 2010 2:24 pm

Model Rundown

Euro

Image

Canadian

Image

GFS likes the EPAC development

Image

Nogaps is a little scary, especially for usually being a conservative model

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Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#90 Postby tailgater » Thu May 20, 2010 3:19 pm

Yucatan low has spun up a little tighter than it was yesterday but is being sheared a good bit and more shear is forcast in that area.
Image
The Bahamas low not much better.
Image
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#91 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 20, 2010 3:33 pm

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This sytem in the WCAR keeps fighting but shear is very strong
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#92 Postby KWT » Thu May 20, 2010 4:11 pm

Quite obvious spin on the Yucatan system, shear is high but if it gets a brief window then we could well see an invest out of this eventually.
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Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#93 Postby srainhoutx » Thu May 20, 2010 4:15 pm

Shear is too strong for any development IMHO. We will need to wait another few weeks for significant development in the region. :wink:
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#94 Postby KWT » Thu May 20, 2010 4:23 pm

Shear is indeed quite strong, can't ever rule out a circulation however, esp if there is ever a quick reduction of shear at any moment...that being said I think the E.coast system has a better shot anyway of developing, at least in the medium term...
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Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#95 Postby Ivanhater » Thu May 20, 2010 4:49 pm

I don't believe the Yucatan low is what the models are developing. The models generate the advertised low in the deep SW Caribbean where shear will be lower, this is where it will have the best shot
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Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#96 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 20, 2010 4:54 pm

The models generate the advertised low in the deep SW Caribbean where shear will be lower, this is where it will have the best shot


Bingo.
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Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#97 Postby pepeavilenho » Thu May 20, 2010 5:02 pm

cycloneye wrote:
The models generate the advertised low in the deep SW Caribbean where shear will be lower, this is where it will have the best shot


Bingo.


Yes, and maybe it coul be affected by the influence of ITCZ, I think is near.
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Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#98 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 20, 2010 5:45 pm

18z NOGAPS

This model by far has been the most agressive on intensity.

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Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#99 Postby Ivanhater » Thu May 20, 2010 5:50 pm

18z Nogaps looks like a full blown Hurricane to me...wow!

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Re: SW Caribbean development next week?

#100 Postby tolakram » Thu May 20, 2010 6:13 pm

Has nogaps ever been right about anything?
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