18Z Hurr Models = FLA bound

[Scott_inVA]

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

will have 12Z globals up shortly.

Scott

[Tip]

Also the SHIP intensity model has it cranked up to 75mph in 120 hrs. the DSHIP model only to 51mph

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912003) ON 20030810 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
030810 1800 030811 0600 030811 1800 030812 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.8N 58.8W 25.6N 62.0W 25.8N 64.8W 26.3N 67.5W
BAMM 25.8N 58.8W 25.5N 62.2W 25.5N 65.2W 25.8N 68.0W
A98E 25.8N 58.8W 25.2N 62.5W 24.8N 65.2W 24.6N 67.2W
LBAR 25.8N 58.8W 25.5N 62.2W 25.5N 65.4W 25.9N 68.6W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
030812 1800 030813 1800 030814 1800 030815 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.1N 70.0W 28.6N 75.7W 29.1N 81.2W 27.8N 85.3W
BAMM 26.4N 70.6W 27.6N 76.3W 28.5N 82.2W 28.3N 86.3W
A98E 24.5N 68.7W 23.9N 72.1W 23.5N 76.7W 22.5N 81.7W
LBAR 26.2N 71.6W 27.3N 77.6W 28.0N 83.7W .0N .0W
SHIP 45KTS 58KTS 67KTS 75KTS
DSHP 45KTS 58KTS 43KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.8N LONCUR = 58.8W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 26.6N LONM12 = 54.9W DIRM12 = 258DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 27.5N LONM24 = 50.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1018MB OUTPRS = 1022MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[Tip]

oops KTs not mph

[ameriwx2003]

I believe the drop-off in the DSHPS intesity is due to the fact it is over land at that time and the 120 HR time frame it jumps back to 51 kTS because its back over water:):):)

[Stormsfury]

Ameriwx beat me to it. DSHPS takes land interaction into account while SHIPS doesn't.

SF

[Guest]

Is this 91L really going to cross over florida and go into the GOM? How much validity does this have?

Just curious if the models are way off or what???

Patricia

[Tip]

I'm not sure the system will develop the intensity progged but the track is certainly plausible due to the position of high pressure in the Atalntic as forecasted by the GFS at 72 hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072s.gif

[Stormsfury]

I'm not sure the system will develop the intensity progged but the track is certainly plausible due to the position of high pressure in the Atalntic as forecasted by the GFS at 72 hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072s.gif

The track certainly is plausible. The GFS's truncation within 84 hrs a very respectable and looks pretty decent on overall pattern 3 days from now.

SF

[Scott_inVA]

Is this 91L really going to cross over florida and go into the GOM? How much validity does this have?

Just curious if the models are way off or what???

Patricia

Models are putting alot of weight on this developing Ridge. We'll see about intensity if it makes it to FL before getting into GOM....but...it is a logical scenario. Not a done deal but it makes sense.

Scott

PS...12Z Globals up on the map. Awaiting 0Z hurr mods.

[GulfBreezer]

All the models have dropped the NW track and moved it more west, would that trend continue once it is in the GOM? What patterns are out there to influence the steering once it crosses FL??

[Guest]

Yeah Gulfbreezer so many questions and so few answers - another waiting game - will it develop - will it died - will it make it across florida - will it redevelop in the GOM? Wish we had some answers - from what I see there is NO consistentcy in the models and not all are in agreement in this scenario - so it COULD NOT HAPPEN.

My two cents.
Patricia

[Stormsfury]

Actually, the tropical models and the globals are in very good agreement within a 3-4 day timeframe with nearly all placing the invest into Florida by that timeframe.

SF

[chadtm80]

Looking at the maps now, dosent look like it will be much more than an ivest at that time lol

[slosh]

Can someone explain in simple terms why the models are forecasting a track that is now across FL? I believe yesterday the models had the system turing North.

Thanks for any input. I am just beginning research on how to read and understand the models.

Of course, the current model tracks take it over my house on the Gulf Coast of Florida. I realize it would weaken quite a bit after landfall and but wehave been pounded with rain the past few days by the trough and the ground is pretty saturated. Any significant rainfall now can produce serious flodding problems for us.

[Stormsfury]

Can someone explain in simple terms why the models are forecasting a track that is now across FL? I believe yesterday the models had the system turing North.

Thanks for any input. I am just beginning research on how to read and understand the models.

Of course, the current model tracks take it over my house on the Gulf Coast of Florida. I realize it would weaken quite a bit after landfall and but wehave been pounded with rain the past few days by the trough and the ground is pretty saturated. Any significant rainfall now can produce serious flodding problems for us.

The basic reasoning lies with the Bermuda High and the trough over the east. In the coming days, the trough is going to be squeezed out and move west in response to a retrograding (westward) Bermuda High. At the same time, a high pressure system building down from the Great Lakes will merge with the Bermuda High producing a storm block, so to speak. In other words, that large scale high to the north won't allow the invest to move anywhere but westward.

SF

[ColdFront77]

About half the models were showing 91L moving toward the west, rather than northward.

In other threads in this forum there has been discussions about high pressures merging, if you will creating a block in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. That would favor a more westward movement.

As for tropical systems weakening over Florida... I have heard that they don't weaken as much as they could because Florida is relatively flat. Also, the peninsula is relatively narrow.

[Steve H.]

Convection has died out today. However there is a good circulation, and convection should flare up again tonight and tomorrow. If this does develop there are some concerns. The trough is beginning to back out and the ridge is building to the north. IF this develops, it could intensify rapidly under the building ridge. That's a big IF though. But the upper support will be there if it does. IF this does develop there will be short notice. Cheers!!

[Toni - 574]

Hey Tom, I don't have offical figures in front of me but seems like when Erin hit the East Coast and came across the state, there was about a 20mph difference from when she made landfall to when she exited the West coast. I am sure you have to take in a lot of variables when estimating the decrease such as the angle that a system comes across and the speed in which the system is traveling.

[Stormsfury]

Hey Tom, I don't have offical figures in front of me but seems like when Erin hit the East Coast and came across the state, there was about a 20mph difference from when she made landfall to when she exited the West coast. I am sure you have to take in a lot of variables when estimating the decrease such as the angle that a system comes across and the speed in which the system is traveling.

I think Erin came across the EC of Florida as an 85 mph storm and exited off the WC of Florida as a 55 mph storm.

SF

[Toni - 574]

Hey Tom, I don't have offical figures in front of me but seems like when Erin hit the East Coast and came across the state, there was about a 20mph difference from when she made landfall to when she exited the West coast. I am sure you have to take in a lot of variables when estimating the decrease such as the angle that a system comes across and the speed in which the system is traveling.

I think Erin came across the EC of Florida as an 85 mph storm and exited off the WC of Florida as a 55 mph storm.

SF

Thanks SF, didn't have exact # but thought 20 was close.