00Z TROPICAL MODEL RUN (Florida bound)

[ameriwx2003]

00Z still has this yet to develope system Florida bound:):)

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03081100

[Stormsfury]

Very close consensus indeed, still. Of note: winds are 25 kts, and the pressure has dropped 3 mb down to 1016 mb. Only the A98E is the furthest south, with the LBAR right in the middle of the pack (for a change).

Ironically, this is the roughly around the same north latitude line that Andrew ended up before turning west and intensifying.

SF

[ameriwx2003]

SF.. yes and one other thing, I am wondering if your solution about its the wave behind the upper Low that will end up being the key player here is correct??. It sure does seem to be moving right along:):). Comments??

[Toni - 574]

SF, do you remember what position Andrew was at when he started to intensify? Seems like this system would have to quickly intensify in order to make 75kts before the anticipated landfall.

[Stormsfury]

It would, and not to mention, the upper level environment would have to dramatically improve as well. Andrew's turn to the west started at 25.6ºN, 67.0ºW.

Where's our invest? 25.5ºN, 60.1ºW ...

Andrew's track (reflects the upgraded changes that Andrew was a Cat. 5 with 150 kt max sustained winds or 173 mph.)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Toni - 574]

Geez SF, that is scary! But I bet the environment was much better for development for Andrew at that time than it is now for this system. RIGHT? :o

[Stormsfury]

Geez SF, that is scary! But I bet the environment was much better for development for Andrew at that time than it is now for this system. RIGHT? :o

Andrew was already a tropical storm but somewhat disorganized. As the Bermuda High built in, Andrew hit very warm SST's and the upper environment dramatically improved. Invest 91L is in somewhat of a disarrayed look and the upper environment currently isn't very favorable for development right now.

SHIPS model on 91L is useless because it doesn't see land masses. DSHPS does take land interaction into account and would only bring the invest to 56kts ... however, even that wind value may be a little bit generous, since it's not officially even a depression.

SF

[Scott_inVA]

00Z still has this yet to develope system Florida bound:):)

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03081100

I'm confused. :?

Are you saying the 0Z tropical models do NOT develop the Invest into Florida? They do. Everything is between Cuba and the Panhandle... that is remarkable for an "undeveloped" TC.

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

Scott

[Stormsfury]

00Z still has this yet to develope system Florida bound:):)

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03081100

I'm confused. :?

Are you saying the 0Z tropical models do NOT develop the Invest into Florida? They do. Everything is between Cuba and the Panhandle... that is remarkable for an "undeveloped" TC.

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

Scott

Scott, I think Ameriwx2003 is stating that is it Florida bound, but the intensity is unknown (yet to develop wave).

SF

[ameriwx2003]

Scott, sorry for the confusion. The models do bring the system into Florida. Yes SF is correct, I was just bringing up the fact that the system is not yet a developed TD yet:):)

[Scott_inVA]

Scott, sorry for the confusion. The models do bring the system into Florida. Yes SF is correct, I was just bringing up the fact that the system is not yet a developed TD yet:):)

10-4.

I'm getting old and easily confused especially when one knows a busy week is coming.

Scott

[ameriwx2003]

Scott! NP... After I read my orginal post I was confused :) I agree, a busy week or probably weeks are ahead. I think these last few weeks have been our lull for awhile::):)