Severe weather Northern Plains May 22-24

[CrazyC83]

Currently underway in the Dakotas.

http://www.chasertv.com/api/static_page ... talbot.php - HUGE wedge tornado on the ground, probably close to a mile wide. It might even be over a mile wide - KELO reporting a DONUT HOLE on radar...

[Siberian Express]

Wow, see the hook echo...

[CrazyC83]

There has been significant damage reported.

[Siberian Express]

Link to Kello TV with a chase cam and KELLO WX storm center live TV

http://www.keloland.com/_flash/weather/ ... index.html

[CrazyC83]

Biggest report: a house was destroyed, and trees were shredded (if they were debarked, that is at least EF2-EF3 damage)

[CrazyC83]

WUS53 KABR 230027
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
727 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2010

SDC045-089-230100-
/O.CON.KABR.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-100523T0100Z/
MCPHERSON SD-EDMUNDS SD-
727 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL EDMUNDS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MCPHERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 721 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED NEAR ROSCOE...OR 17 MILES WEST OF IPSWICH...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

THIS TORNADO WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL EDMUNDS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MCPHERSON COUNTIES.

LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS IS ALSO OCCURING WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100
AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

LAT...LON 4570 9937 4540 9923 4537 9954 4556 9964
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 272DEG 40KT 4546 9930

$$
FOWLE

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0666
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NRN SD INTO SERN ND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 202...

VALID 230034Z - 230200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 202 CONTINUES.

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES -- MOST IMMEDIATELY ACROSS PARTS OF
N CENTRAL/NERN SD.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A LARGE/INTENSE/SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELL
CROSSING NRN EDMUNDS AND MCPHERSON COUNTIES...WHICH HAS PRODUCED
MULTIPLE -- AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT -- TORNADOES OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO. OTHER STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE S OF THIS STORM INVOF THE
SURGING COLD FRONT...AND NWD INTO SD ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING NWWD INTO WRN ND.

THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY OVER NERN SD WHERE THE WARM FRONT --
EXTENDING EWD FROM THE N CENTRAL SD SURFACE LOW -- REMAINS IN PLACE.
STRONG SHEAR -- BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER -- AND A VERY
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED
SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..GOSS.. 05/23/2010


ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 47150011 47199957 46979845 45989767 44219808 43910067
44430098 45710015 47150011

[CrazyC83]

Moderate risk at 0100Z?

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 230100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2010

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NRN
PLAINS INTO WRN MN...

...NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...

EARLY THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN MN WNWWD TO A SFC
LOW IN CNTRL SD. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE LOW SWWD THROUGH
WRN NEB INTO NRN CO. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS NNWWD FROM THE LOW
THROUGH W CNTRL ND. DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM WRN TX...WRN KS NWD INTO S
CNTRL SD WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. IMPULSE LIFTING NWD
INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL FORCE DEEPER BAROCLINIC ZONE EWD INTO THE
NRN PLAINS.

THE WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS ERN SD WITH LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND 00Z RAOB FROM ABERDEEN INDICATING 3000-4000
J/KG MLCAPE. DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN ZONE
OF MESOSCALE FORCING NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND ARE LIFTING N OF THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS N-CNTRL SD INTO SRN ND. VWP DATA INDICATE 0-1 KM
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 350 M2/S2 N OF WARM FRONT. STORMS
LIFTING NWD AND INTERACTING WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION VERY LARGE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GREATER
THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING...BUT AN
EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO PREDOMINANT LINEAR MODES AND CLUSTERS IS
EXPECTED AS DEEPER BAROCLINIC ZONE ADVANCES EAST AND BEGINS TO
OVERTAKE THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN WITH PRIMARY THREATS BECOMING
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING IN POST FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS
WILL POSE A RISK FOR MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND THROUGH MID EVENING.

...SWRN TX...

STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN TX CONTINUE TO
POSE A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO.
HOWEVER...STORMS ARE VERY ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THE ONSET
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN STORM DISSIPATION WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET.

..DIAL.. 05/23/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0105Z (9:05PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 203
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
855 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 855 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
ONEILL NEBRASKA TO 10 MILES NORTH OF HURON SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 202...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO FAR
NORTHERN NEB ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET WILL POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...HART

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

IMPULSE LIFTING NWD
INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL FORCE DEEPER BAROCLINIC ZONE EWD INTO THE
NRN PLAINS.

Now in English please ..... will that system :S be moving into Saskatchewan?

(My sympathies to my neighbours directly southeast of me)

It seems to me it wont...we are so cool for this time of year (we are getting more rain than we've had in years and years). Last night we saw just about every farmer along the #1 (TransCanada highway) planting their crops until about midnight (tractors' lights were to be seen everywhere).

[somethingfunny]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWRWvhylKQM[/youtube]