Caribbean - Central America Weather

[FireBird]

Hey Cycloneye, thanks for the welcome and the info.
TT remains very dry though we can tell that conditions are rapidly changing. today has been completely overcast and there's been some thundering too, but no rainfall. We are still under water restrictions. Our "drought" status has not changed. We need to get the rain, but with a few regular showers one day last week, the Met office had to put out public advisories for flash floods and mudslides, especially for North Coast residents. The devastation caused by months of forest fires is extreme, and unknown to the general public. This is a real Catch 22 situation, and I'm curious to see how it all plays out.....

[Gustywind]

Oh just looking at Meteo-France weather forecast, the Northern Leewards back to green code, so good news for you Msbee.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 PM AST SUN MAY 23 2010

PRC029-031-087-089-119-232345-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0136.100523T2154Z-100523T2345Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LUQUILLO PR-CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-LOIZA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
554 PM AST SUN MAY 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LUQUILLO...CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...LOIZA AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 745 PM AST

* AT 551 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...AT LEAST UNTIL
7:45 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN

[cycloneye]

May has been so far very wet in Puerto Rico and this year has been on record territory.

http://www.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=sju

Code: Select all

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  TODAY            0.73          3.62 2004   0.17   0.56      T
  MONTH TO DATE   10.13                      4.02   6.11     3.58
  SINCE MAR 1     16.67                      9.87   6.80     9.58
  SINCE JAN 1     28.82                     15.19  13.63    15.40


[msbee]

Gusty, no rain here.
very very hot and humid though.
even our pool was almost too hot to swim in
and no wind.

welcome to the forum, Firebird.
I was in Trinidad in March and couldn't believe all the fires.

[tropicana]

Regional Weather Summary
Sun May 23 2010

Sunday's Highs and rain (if any)

Piarco, C. Trinidad 30.9C 87F 31.0mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 31.9C 90F 11.9mm
Pointe-a-Pierre, SW Trinidad 30.7C 87F 27.9mm
Crown Point, Tobago 31.2C 88F 3.0mm

Point Salines, Grenada 30.5C 87F 0.2mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.6C 89F trace
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 31.6C 89F trace
Hewannora, St Lucia 33.3C 92F 0.9mm
Vigie, St Lucia 30.2C 86F

Melville Hall, Dominica 30.4C 86F 27.0mm
Canefield, Dominica 32.4C 90F
Le Lamentin, Martinique 32.7C 91F 4.5mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 29.0C 84F 0.2mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 31.1C 88F 2.0mm
VC Bird, Antigua 30.9C 88F 3.9mm
St Maarten, VI 31.1C 88F 1.7mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 31.1C 88F 18.0mm

Norman Manley, Jamaica 32.5C 91F 0.7mm
Sangster, Montego Bay, Jamaica 32.0C 90F
Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.9C 87F trace
Havana, Cuba 31.1C 88F

Nassau, Bahamas 29.6C 85F
Hamilton, Bermuda 25.6C 78F

Hato, Curacao 33.0C 92F

-justin-

[FireBird]

Gusty, no rain here.
very very hot and humid though.
even our pool was almost too hot to swim in
and no wind.

welcome to the forum, Firebird.
I was in Trinidad in March and couldn't believe all the fires.

Thanks Barbara!
At my home we were referring to the now ending and very extended dry season as a black winter - every day there were ashes falling from the sky!
For all of today, we've had fairly steady westerly winds. I saw on another site that if 90L were to develop then this change in wind pattern might be expected as some sort of "feeder bands" make their way to the Low. Has this been anyone else's experience along the E. Caribbean?
I don;t necessarily think that this is the reason, but I'm curious.......

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all. It looks like friday will be the wettest of this week that for the most part will be wet as the tail of 90L and a low pressure in the Caribbean is providing the deep moisture.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST MON MAY 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH A
TROUGH ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PASS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AT THE SAME TIME HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES WEST INTO THE CARIBBEAN.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN BE ABSORBED INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A VERY LARGE AND STRONG LOW OVER NEWFOUNDLAND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ENTRANCE OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE INTO THE
ATLANTIC EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS WILL KEEP FLOW OVER THE AREA
SOUTHWEST UNTIL THE FOLLOWING TUESDAY. MID LEVELS ARE MOIST
TODAY...DRY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND RE-MOISTEN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. GRADUAL DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AFTER THIS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGES WEST OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON
WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WINDWARD CHANNEL TO A
POSITION ABOUT 440 MILES NORTH OF SAINT CROIX FRIDAY EVENING
PULLING COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH IT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE LOW CONTINUES NORTHEAST IT WILL PULL A TAIL OF MOISTURE WITH
IT OVER THE LOCAL AREA THAT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE BANDS HAVE FORMED BOTH NORTHWEST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHTLY DRYER AREA IN THE MIDDLE
WHERE PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN BOTH THE GENERAL CLEARING OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE
SAN JUAN SOUNDER OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS MOISTURE REMAINS VERY
GOOD OVER THE AREA WITH 2.2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. WINDS OVER SAN JUAN ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE UP THROUGH 12 THOUSAND FEET AND BECOME WEST SOUTHWEST
ABOVE THAT...INCREASING TO 54 KNOTS AT 44 THOUSAND FEET. LOCAL
SURFACE WINDS ARE NEARLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY...BUT MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE A WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE FLOW TODAY
THAT MAY KEEP SHOWERS OFF THE WEST COAST FOR THE MOST PART. THIS
COULD AFFECT SAN JUAN HOWEVER...AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. BECAUSE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY HAVE
KEPT POPS FOR THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA IN THE 60S AND POPS IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE ISOLATED RANGE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
DUG DOWN OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC YESTERDAY STILL HAS A NICE
UPPER LEVEL JET THAT WILL REMAIN WITHIN 350 MILES OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
AID CONVECTION DURING THE WEEK. DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW MOST OF THE
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE ISLAND. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT 850 MB DECREASE
SOME AFTER WEDNESDAY... PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE LOCAL
AREA DROP BELOW 2 INCHES IN THE GFS ONLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MODELS SHOW VERY HIGH VALUES...2.55 INCHES...29/00Z WHEN
A PLUME OF MOISTURE COMES UP ON FRIDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENTS OF THE AIRFLOW AND DYNAMICS
THAT SUPPORT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. DRYING IS VERY SLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING DOES NOT OCCUR IN THE GFS UNTIL
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...PROLONGING THE THREAT OF EASILY PROVOKED
RIVER RISES AND MUDSLIDES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA AND TSRA WILL
AFFECT THE FLIGHT AREA ACROSS TJSJ AND TJBQ...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE SITES BETWEEN 24/17Z TO 24/22Z.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURATION ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR WILL ALSO
BE LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME VCSH AND SCT
CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS IN THE ATLANTIC REMAIN RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN WAVE WATCH III FORECASTS 8 FOOT SEAS
BUILDING AT BUOY 41043 INTO SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.


&&

.CLIMATE...WITH THE ADDITION OF 0.77 INCHES OF RAINFALL AT THE
LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT YESTERDAY THIS IS ALREADY THE EIGHTH
WETTEST MAY EVER...PROVIDING NO MORE RAIN FALLS THIS MONTH...WHICH
IS A HIGHLY UNLIKELY PROPOSITION INDEED.

[Gustywind]

[Macrocane]

Good morning, it's a nice and rainy morning in Metro San Salvador as you can see in the webcam in the first page of the thread. The last 3 days have been very rainy in Central America, on Saturday 45 mm (1.77) fell in just 2 hours in San Salvador and that caused some minor flooding in some roads. In Honduras green alert has been declared because of the rains. The rainy pattern seems that will persist this week so I will keep you updated if something important happens.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST MON MAY 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO AS DEEP MOISTURE AND A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH INDICATING A DEEPER
SURGE OF MOISTURE AND INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK...AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND TRACKS NEAR HAITI LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. IN
FACT...LATEST CPC HAZARD ASSESSMENT (http://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV)
CAUTIONS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES ACROSS PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RIGHT
NOW...MODELS ARE INDICATING PUERTO RICO WILL BE ON THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...AND AT THE PRESENT
TIME...WE ALREADY HAVE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AS WE NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES AFT 24/23Z...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS
TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH 25/14Z. AFT 25/16Z...EXPECT
SHRA AND TSRA FORMATION OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL TO SPREAD
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDS ACROSS TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ. PREVAILING LLVL
WIND FLOW EXPECTED TO BECOME ESE AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

[Macrocane]

This is the accumulated rainfall between 7:00 am yesterda and 7:00 am today in some salvadorian stations:

Sensuntepeque: 90 mm/3.54 inches
Santa Ana: 28 mm/1.1 inches
Acajutla: 25 mm/1 inch
San Salvador: 17 mm/0.67 inches
San Miguel: 5 mm/0.2 inches
La Union: 15 mm/0.59 inches

This week could be a very rainy one, some models are developing a low (and possibly a tropical cyclone) that could make landfall or at least brush the Pacific coast of Central America.

[cycloneye]

Yes,we have to watch that area this week to see what happens.Even if a Tropical Cyclone does not form,the pattern is favorable for big rain events in parts of Central America and the Caribbean.And of course,any big rain event causes flooding and mudslides.We have to watch especially what will occur in Haiti.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.No change about the wet scenario this week especially for Friday and Saturday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
555 AM AST TUE MAY 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTH CAROLINA TO NORTH OF PUERTO RICO LAST NIGHT. IT WILL MOVE
EAST AND BE ABSORBED IN THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG LOW CENTERED
OVER NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY. A BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET TO
THE SOUTH OF THAT LOW WILL...HOWEVER...CONTINUE BETWEEN 250 AND 350
MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH FRIDAY. THAT JET REMAINS WITHIN
550 MILES OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE FILLS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE AREA.
WHEN THE LOW WEAKENS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE EAST. THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
MOISTURE IN THE MID LAYERS IS INTERMITTENT BUT WILL BE BEST ON
WEDNESDAY...LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR 30 NORTH AND 72 WEST THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO SLOWLY EXPAND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ON WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL PULL INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY MONDAY PULLING A
LARGE AREA OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE AROUND 2.1 TO 2.3
INCHES OVER SAN JUAN AND THE MIMIC PRODUCT SUGGESTS THAT A BAND
OF EVEN MORE MOIST AIR JUST CROSSED THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM THE
EAST LAST NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. WIND FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND NWS RADAR
SHOWED SCATTERERS...THAT IS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...ALL THE WAY UP TO
30 THOUSAND FEET EARLIER THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS EXTENDED UP
TO 10 THOUSAND FEET AND SOUTH WINDS WERE AS HIGH AS 18 THOUSAND
FEET. THE GFS 250 MB ANALYSIS SHOWED POCKETS OF DIVERGENCE...SOME
QUITE STRONG...CROSSING THE LOCAL ISLANDS 25/18Z...AGAIN ON
26/18Z...27/06Z...AND ALMOST CONTINUOUSLY FROM 28/06Z TO 30/00Z
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A JET TO THE NORTH DESCRIBED EARLIER. THE
CORE OF THIS JET TO OUR NORTH STRENGTHENS FROM 90 TO OVER 120
KNOTS FROM FRIDAY...28/06Z TO 29/00Z. STABILITY IS NOT QUITE SO
COOPERATIVE. ALTHOUGH A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 7.5 IS FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AT SAN JUAN...VALUES RISE TO MINUS 2 TO 3 THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

EXPECT THIS COMPLEX COMBINATION OF FACTORS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PUERTO RICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...AND BETTER ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND AN
INCREASE IN MUDSLIDES. THURSDAY WILL NOT BE AS ACTIVE BUT A PLUME
OF MOISTURE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT
SHOWS 850 MB EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES OF 345 TO 350
DEGREES. THIS LOADING OF MOISTURE...INCLUDING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXCEEDING 2.5 INCHES...AND A LOW LEVEL SURGE OF WINDS...TO
30 KNOTS AT 850 MB LATE FRIDAY...WILL CAUSE OUR WEATHER TO BECOME
MUCH MORE ACTIVE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD FLOODING
APPEARING LIKELY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD MODELS HOLD THIS SOLUTION
WILL ISSUE ESF TOMORROW FOR AT LEAST 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER CENTRAL
AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES IN ISOLATED AREAS OVER
THAT 48 HOUR PERIOD POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS IN SAN JUAN WILL BE TRICKIER DUE TO
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...BUT COULD EASILY EXCEED 2 INCHES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL EASE ON SUNDAY...BUT MOST MODELS ARE
KEEPING WET CONDITIONS UNTIL MONDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW AN
OVERALL DRIER ATMOSPHERE AFTER TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BE
NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND MOVE TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 25/17Z TO 25/22Z MAINLY ACROSS TJMZ...TJBQ AND
TJSJ. HOWEVER...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME VCSH ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. PREVAILING SFC WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS
IN PASSING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZES REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER LOCAL MARINE AREAS
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED NEXT 7 TO 9 DAYS.
HOWEVER HEAVIER RAINS LOCALLY LIMITING VISIBILITIES AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRESENT HAZARDS TO NAVIGATION...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

[bvigal]

Good morning, neighbors! We just completed our Whit Monday holiday weekend, and here in the BVI it was a beautifully dry, hot, weekend, with little to no rain from Saturday morning until Monday night.

I'm house/dog-sitting for a friend, and have to keep a close eye on certain windows to keep rain from coming in, and be aware of puddles on the walkways outside so the doggies don't track water onto a couple of wooden floors. I keep the radar loop running on two computer in the house, including my bedroom, for at-a-glance notice of inbound showers. After light shower or two Friday night, didn't have another drop of precip until about 1am this (Tues) morning. So, if you are reading the subject line of this forum and it says "wet weather", don't be discouraged. Come on down and enjoy our beautiful sailing and beach weather! Even if it does happen to rain on you, the air is warm, you won't get chilled!

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1142 AM AST TUE MAY 25 2010

.UPDATE...
A FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST
ATLANTIC RECEDES FURTHER EASTWARD. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED THAT THE BROAD SURFACE ROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WAS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND HISPANIOLA ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF ITCZ MOISTURE.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN PERSISTENT ON INCREASING AND SHIFTING
THE DEEP MOISTURE FIELD SLOWLY BUT SURELY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER... AVAILABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL BE
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH....NORTH CENTRAL
AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TO INCLUDE PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN
METRO AREA. ONCE AGAIN SOME OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
AND MAY LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. NO CHANGES MADE
TO INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDS CONTINUED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AT THE LOCAL TAF SITES...WITH PASSING SHRA NOTED MOVING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LATEST
12Z TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING DATA INDICATED PREVAILING LIGHT E-SE
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW....THEN VEERING AND INCR WITH HGT AND BCMG
SW-W ABV 20K FT.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
131 PM AST TUE MAY 25 2010

PRC019-039-045-047-051-091-101-105-135-143-145-251930-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0138.100525T1731Z-100525T1930Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIALES PR-COROZAL PR-COMERIO PR-BARRANQUITAS PR-NARANJITO PR-
MOROVIS PR-TOA ALTA PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-MANATI PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
131 PM AST TUE MAY 25 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...COROZAL...COMERIO...BARRANQUITAS...NARANJITO...
MOROVIS...TOA ALTA...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...MANATI AND VEGA BAJA

* UNTIL 330 PM AST

* AT 129 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL STREAMING FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL
COAST OF THE ISLAND. CONTINUED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND THE FLOODING OF
URBANIZED AREAS AS WELL AS SMALL STREAMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH 330 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
323 PM AST TUE MAY 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IN A VERY
MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND LOCAL EFFECTS...TO HELP
ENHANCE MAINLY AFTERNOON DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE EVEN DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MORE FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MAINLY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...LOCAL
RESIDENTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS THERE IS STILL QUITE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING
AND RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED WITH THIS DEEP TROPICAL TONGUE OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR AND SLOWLY DRIFT WEST NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE... MVFR CONDS
AND BRIEF MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST UNTIL 25/24Z IN
AND AROUND TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ AS WELL AS VCNTY OF PICO DEL
ESTE/EL YUNQUE. PREVAILING VFR CONDS WITH PASSING SHRA ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES AND ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA... INCLUDING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BTW 5-15 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN
PASSING SHRA.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 PM AST TUE MAY 25 2010

PRC007-021-025-041-061-063-127-139-260000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0141.100525T2100Z-100526T0000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CAGUAS PR-CIDRA PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-GURABO PR-
TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-
500 PM AST TUE MAY 25 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...CIDRA...AGUAS BUENAS...GURABO...TRUJILLO
ALTO...GUAYNABO AND SAN JUAN

* UNTIL 800 PM AST

* AT 456 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...AFFECTING PARTS
OF THESE MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES AND U.S.G.S. RAIN GAGES
INDICATED THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS
OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN. THESE AND OTHER
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA THROUGH 800 PM...PRODUCING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO LOCALLY
2 INCHES. IN ADDITION...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF
STREETS...ROADS...STREAMS...CREEKS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS...AND
WILL ALSO PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...
STREETS...UNDERPASSES AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[Macrocane]

I mentioned this on the 90E thread but as always I post the important information here too. Green alert has been declared in El Salvador, that means that there is an event that may threat the country and the emergency management service is activated, if the threat increases it will be upgraded to yellow. Take a look at some of this rainfall amounts between 7:00 am yesterday and 7:00 am today:

San Vicente 119 mm/4.69 inches
La Union 115 mm/4.53 inches
San Miguel 27 mm/1.06 inches
Acajutla 45 mm/1.77 inches
Santa Ana 30 mm/1.18 inches
San Salvador 15 mm/0.59 inches

At this time a very heavy rain is falling in San Salvador and other parts of the country, I will keep you updated.