ATL : INVEST 90L

[cwachal]

good morning it seems like the strong convection is further away from the center of low pressure.... are we expecting a new low to develop or shear to lower and storms to form closer to the CoC that we already see

[Hurricane Andrew]

where is the COC?

[cwachal]

it appears to be at 68.5 W and 25 N

[cycloneye]

From 8:05 AM EDT discussion:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE WEST OF 60W. SOME OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW EVEN REACHES INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH CONNECTS ONE 1007 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N70W TO A SECOND 1005 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N69W...AND CONTINUING TO HAITI
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS FOR THE SOUTHERN LOW CENTER TO DISSIPATE...AND FOR THE
NORTHERN LOW CENTER TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD. GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE 28N72W TO 28N65W
TO 23N61W. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 11 FT TO 19 FT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 56W AND
60W. OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W.

[cwachal]

so which one of those is the dominate low and which one is not....

[Hurricane Andrew]

the 1007MB low is under some convection!

I will make a new forcast this evening.

[cwachal]

the 1007MB low is under some convection!

I will make a new forcast this evening.

the question I have though is I really do not see much rotation around there right now.... so is it expected to become the dominate low with more convection forming around there and more rotation or is shear going to send this one the same as it has sent each of the other ones?

[KWT]

Its a classic multiple low situation, if the northern one can become dominantn then it has a 50-50 shot at developing but its going to struggle whilst it keeps this multiple low signature.

[Hurricane Andrew]

the 1007MB low is under some convection!

I will make a new forcast this evening.

the question I have though is I really do not see much rotation around there right now.... so is it expected to become the dominate low with more convection forming around there and more rotation or is shear going to send this one the same as it has sent each of the other ones?

I see rotation. I think this is the finall(i spelled that wrong) Low.

We should see ALEX by dawn tommorow.

[cwachal]

or shear can rip this one apart like it did to the one last night and we could be right where we are now

[Hurricane Andrew]

I donno about that.

Cwachal, can you post that rotation model thingy?

[cwachal]

are you talking about the image I posted last night?

[cwachal]

it is the same thing but here it is



I think it updates every 12 hours or so

[Hurricane Andrew]

it is the same thing but here it is



I think it updates every 12 hours or so

So 8 means strong rotation?

[cwachal]

this shows the storm getting more warmed core for a while and then going back the same way it was before

[cwachal]

So 8 means strong rotation?

well the higher the number the stronger the rotation and the faster the numbers climb from one location to a nearby location indicates how tight the circulation is... this shows pretty good rotation as of right now

[KWT]

I believe the C actually stands for current, so the model is expecting to slowly loose warm core properties, which makes sense given the upper low weeakens and SST's cool down.

[wxman57]

I suggest you don't get too carried away with your enthusiasm for seeing this named too soon. I'm looking at a plot of surface obs with a satellite overlay that says we have only a very broad circulation about 600 miles across with the main center well to the SW of any convection. It has a long way to go to become Alex. Winds around the low are generally in the 20-25 kt range. If the convection does centralize, though, the center should tighten over the next day or two. Could see STS Alex out of this, but not within 24 hrs most likely. If the NHC thought otherwise, they wouldn't be saying only a 30% chance of development over the next 48 hrs.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Yeah.


My new strength times.

TD/STD
24 hours-65%
48 hours-80%
60 hours-85%
1 week-85%

TS/STS
24 hours-40%
48 hours-70%
60 hours-70%
1 week-80%

Hurricane
X
X
60 hours-<0.1%
1 week-<0.1%

[Hurricane Andrew]

I suggest you don't get too carried away with your enthusiasm for seeing this named too soon. I'm looking at a plot of surface obs with a satellite overlay that says we have only a very broad circulation about 600 miles across with the main center well to the SW of any convection. It has a long way to go to become Alex. Winds around the low are generally in the 20-25 kt range. If the convection does centralize, though, the center should tighten over the next day or two. Could see STS Alex out of this, but not within 24 hrs most likely. If the NHC thought otherwise, they wouldn't be saying only a 30% chance of development over the next 48 hrs.

Yeah...The low under the convection really needs to tighten up some.

Question-are subtropical storms warm core or cold core(i need to know)?