Looks like at the next outlook which I will add here when it comes out we should see a fairly large mdt risk from SPC
More coming as more information comes out
Severe Weather 5/24/2010
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-
cwachal
Severe Weather 5/24/2010
I did not see a topic for the severe weather threat today so I figured I would post one
Looks like at the next outlook which I will add here when it comes out we should see a fairly large mdt risk from SPC
More coming as more information comes out
Looks like at the next outlook which I will add here when it comes out we should see a fairly large mdt risk from SPC
More coming as more information comes out
0 likes
Re: Severe Weather 5/24/2010
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0686
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN NEB AND WESTERN/CENTRAL SD TO SOUTHERN ND
CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 241106Z - 241300Z
BASED ON OVERNIGHT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...THE 13Z
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEB...WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD...AND
SOUTHERN ND. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
DISCUSSION...PLEASE CONSULT THE FORTHCOMING 13Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK. A
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK /PWO/ WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
..GUYER/CARBIN.. 05/24/2010
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...
LAT...LON 46040369 46720226 46820013 46449928 45259895 42969914
42079982 41610048 41170193 42560368 44730404 46040369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN NEB AND WESTERN/CENTRAL SD TO SOUTHERN ND
CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 241106Z - 241300Z
BASED ON OVERNIGHT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...THE 13Z
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEB...WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD...AND
SOUTHERN ND. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
DISCUSSION...PLEASE CONSULT THE FORTHCOMING 13Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK. A
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK /PWO/ WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
..GUYER/CARBIN.. 05/24/2010
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...
LAT...LON 46040369 46720226 46820013 46449928 45259895 42969914
42079982 41610048 41170193 42560368 44730404 46040369
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Re: Severe Weather 5/24/2010
SPC AC 241244
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010
VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA....MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM ND AND MN SWD TO WEST TX...
...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TODAY...
...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
HAVE STRONG POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES...LARGE/DAMAGING
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...
...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA PIVOTING THROUGH THE BASE OF A
LARGER SCALE TROUGH SYSTEM THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WRN STATES FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE...TAKING THE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
75-80KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK RAPIDLY NEWD TO THE NEB PANHANDLE AREA
BY 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN CLOSING OFF A 500MB LOW OVER NERN MT
BY TUESDAY MORNING. INTENSE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A PRONOUNCED NEGATIVE TILT
AND DRIVES SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.
RESULTING SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY WHILE TRACKING ALMOST DUE
NORTH FROM NERN CO TO WRN ND THROUGH THIS EVENING. WARM
FRONT...CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM NEB PNHDL TO ERN SD TO CNTRL
MN...WILL RETREAT QUICKLY NWD ACROSS THE REST OF SD AND INTO ND BY
EVENING. TRAILING DRY LINE WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS EAST FROM ERN
CO/NM THIS MORNING...INTO KS AND NEB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND
THEN PERHAPS SURGING EWD ACROSS NEB AND NRN KS LATER TODAY AS THE
LOW INTENSIFIES TO THE NORTH.
FARTHER SOUTH...DRY LINE ADVANCE WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER DUE TO LARGE
MERIDIONAL COMPONENT TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW.
ELSEWHERE...A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE WILL TAKE FORM FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. SOUTH OF THE CLOSED ANTICYCLONE AT 500MB...A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL
BECOME ABSORBED BY LARGER DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DRIFTING
SHOREWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC.
...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...
AN EXTENSIVE AND VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR AIR MASS LIES IN WAIT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE HIGH PLAINS DRY
LINE AND SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. PW VALUES OF 1.00
TO 1.50 INCHES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION AND LATEST RAOBS DEPICT STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL INHIBITION/CAPPING IN PLACE.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION WITH EARLY
DAYTIME HEATING AND EXPECT SBCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. GIVEN THIS DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND QUICK ARRIVAL OF
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS EMERGING FROM THE SRN CNTRL
ROCKIES...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO BE WELL UNDERWAY BY
18Z FROM CO/KS BORDER TO SERN WY AND PERHAPS NEB. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS COMBINATION OF
CONTINUED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG ASCENT ACT TO OVERCOME
ANY REMAINING INHIBITION.
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR
WITH MEAN WIND NEARING 60KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAST STORM MOTIONS
AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR NEWD TRACKING SUPERCELLS. MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM KS TO SRN NEB
SUGGESTS THAT TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT COLD FRONT/DRY LINE SURGE
INTO NRN KS AND SRN NEB BY EVENING MAY RESULT IN THE EVENTUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A BOWING SQUALL LINE WITH SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
GREATER TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...FROM NWRN NEB ACROSS SD THIS AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...MAGNITUDE OF THE OVERALL FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY FAST STORM
MOTIONS AROUND 50KT. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND INTENSE SHEAR
COINCIDENT WITH SUCH A VOLATILE AIR MASS AND FORCING STRONGLY
SUGGEST TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND VERY LARGE HAIL. EXPECT THIS
POTENTIAL TO EXPAND NWD INTO ND BY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND
WARM FRONT INTENSIFY. A COUPLE OF STRONG AND POSSIBLY LONG-TRACK
TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FORECAST SCENARIO.
...SRN PLAINS...
STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM OK/TX PNHDLS SWD TO THE RIO GRANDE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED THAN FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FORCING
FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL AT LEAST BRUSH
SOME OF THIS AREA AND...IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP MIXING ON THE DRY
LINE...A FEW TO SEVERAL ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ERUPT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SUPERCELL HAIL/WIND AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
WITH STORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE PNHDLS AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TX/OK.
FARTHER SOUTH...GENERALLY WEAKER FLOW SUGGESTS MORE ORGANIZED
MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..CARBIN/ROGERS.. 05/24/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1306Z (3:06PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010
VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA....MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM ND AND MN SWD TO WEST TX...
...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TODAY...
...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
HAVE STRONG POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES...LARGE/DAMAGING
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...
...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA PIVOTING THROUGH THE BASE OF A
LARGER SCALE TROUGH SYSTEM THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WRN STATES FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE...TAKING THE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
75-80KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK RAPIDLY NEWD TO THE NEB PANHANDLE AREA
BY 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN CLOSING OFF A 500MB LOW OVER NERN MT
BY TUESDAY MORNING. INTENSE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A PRONOUNCED NEGATIVE TILT
AND DRIVES SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.
RESULTING SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY WHILE TRACKING ALMOST DUE
NORTH FROM NERN CO TO WRN ND THROUGH THIS EVENING. WARM
FRONT...CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM NEB PNHDL TO ERN SD TO CNTRL
MN...WILL RETREAT QUICKLY NWD ACROSS THE REST OF SD AND INTO ND BY
EVENING. TRAILING DRY LINE WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS EAST FROM ERN
CO/NM THIS MORNING...INTO KS AND NEB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND
THEN PERHAPS SURGING EWD ACROSS NEB AND NRN KS LATER TODAY AS THE
LOW INTENSIFIES TO THE NORTH.
FARTHER SOUTH...DRY LINE ADVANCE WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER DUE TO LARGE
MERIDIONAL COMPONENT TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW.
ELSEWHERE...A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE WILL TAKE FORM FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. SOUTH OF THE CLOSED ANTICYCLONE AT 500MB...A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL
BECOME ABSORBED BY LARGER DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DRIFTING
SHOREWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC.
...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...
AN EXTENSIVE AND VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR AIR MASS LIES IN WAIT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE HIGH PLAINS DRY
LINE AND SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. PW VALUES OF 1.00
TO 1.50 INCHES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION AND LATEST RAOBS DEPICT STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL INHIBITION/CAPPING IN PLACE.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION WITH EARLY
DAYTIME HEATING AND EXPECT SBCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. GIVEN THIS DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND QUICK ARRIVAL OF
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS EMERGING FROM THE SRN CNTRL
ROCKIES...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO BE WELL UNDERWAY BY
18Z FROM CO/KS BORDER TO SERN WY AND PERHAPS NEB. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS COMBINATION OF
CONTINUED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG ASCENT ACT TO OVERCOME
ANY REMAINING INHIBITION.
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR
WITH MEAN WIND NEARING 60KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAST STORM MOTIONS
AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR NEWD TRACKING SUPERCELLS. MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM KS TO SRN NEB
SUGGESTS THAT TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT COLD FRONT/DRY LINE SURGE
INTO NRN KS AND SRN NEB BY EVENING MAY RESULT IN THE EVENTUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A BOWING SQUALL LINE WITH SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
GREATER TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...FROM NWRN NEB ACROSS SD THIS AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...MAGNITUDE OF THE OVERALL FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY FAST STORM
MOTIONS AROUND 50KT. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND INTENSE SHEAR
COINCIDENT WITH SUCH A VOLATILE AIR MASS AND FORCING STRONGLY
SUGGEST TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND VERY LARGE HAIL. EXPECT THIS
POTENTIAL TO EXPAND NWD INTO ND BY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND
WARM FRONT INTENSIFY. A COUPLE OF STRONG AND POSSIBLY LONG-TRACK
TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FORECAST SCENARIO.
...SRN PLAINS...
STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM OK/TX PNHDLS SWD TO THE RIO GRANDE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED THAN FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FORCING
FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL AT LEAST BRUSH
SOME OF THIS AREA AND...IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP MIXING ON THE DRY
LINE...A FEW TO SEVERAL ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ERUPT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SUPERCELL HAIL/WIND AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
WITH STORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE PNHDLS AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TX/OK.
FARTHER SOUTH...GENERALLY WEAKER FLOW SUGGESTS MORE ORGANIZED
MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..CARBIN/ROGERS.. 05/24/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1306Z (3:06PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
0 likes
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cwachal
Re: Severe Weather 5/24/2010
Tornado Watch to be issued shortly
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0688
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS...SW NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 241544Z - 241715Z
A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST INTO
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN CO...WRN KS AND WRN NEB. LARGE HAIL WILL
BE LIKELY AS STORMS INTENSIFY. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NE TX PANHANDLE AND OK
PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH
IN FAR SE CO WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS ANALYZING MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THE
CELL JUST SOUTH OF SPRINGFIELD CO IS LOCATED ON THE ERN SIDE OF A 65
TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET WHICH IS CREATING STRONG ENOUGH VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER STORM IS INITIATING NEAR
LIMON CO WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR AND
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAN FURTHER SOUTH. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN NE CO OVER THE NEXT HOUR
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP A BROKEN LINE OF
DISCRETE STORMS FROM NE CO AND WRN NEB EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS WRN KS
WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS STRONG SUGGESTING THE
TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 05/24/2010
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 37120227 37360264 38490290 39420321 39990350 40450373
41360382 42020348 42150266 41960174 40460118 39440124
38000157 37120227
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0688
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS...SW NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 241544Z - 241715Z
A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST INTO
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN CO...WRN KS AND WRN NEB. LARGE HAIL WILL
BE LIKELY AS STORMS INTENSIFY. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NE TX PANHANDLE AND OK
PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH
IN FAR SE CO WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS ANALYZING MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THE
CELL JUST SOUTH OF SPRINGFIELD CO IS LOCATED ON THE ERN SIDE OF A 65
TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET WHICH IS CREATING STRONG ENOUGH VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER STORM IS INITIATING NEAR
LIMON CO WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR AND
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAN FURTHER SOUTH. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN NE CO OVER THE NEXT HOUR
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP A BROKEN LINE OF
DISCRETE STORMS FROM NE CO AND WRN NEB EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS WRN KS
WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS STRONG SUGGESTING THE
TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 05/24/2010
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 37120227 37360264 38490290 39420321 39990350 40450373
41360382 42020348 42150266 41960174 40460118 39440124
38000157 37120227
0 likes
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cwachal
-
cwachal
WUUS54 KMEG 241644
SVRMEG
TNC045-053-131-183-241730-
/O.NEW.KMEG.SV.W.0215.100524T1644Z-100524T1730Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1144 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN DYER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
NORTHWESTERN GIBSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
OBION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
WEST CENTRAL WEAKLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
* AT 1143 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR MARTIN...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MARTIN AND
UNION CITY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.
&&
LAT...LON 3606 8915 3636 8935 3650 8884 3634 8872
TIME...MOT...LOC 1643Z 062DEG 14KT 3637 8889
$$
TLSJR
SVRMEG
TNC045-053-131-183-241730-
/O.NEW.KMEG.SV.W.0215.100524T1644Z-100524T1730Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1144 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN DYER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
NORTHWESTERN GIBSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
OBION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
WEST CENTRAL WEAKLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
* AT 1143 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR MARTIN...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MARTIN AND
UNION CITY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.
&&
LAT...LON 3606 8915 3636 8935 3650 8884 3634 8872
TIME...MOT...LOC 1643Z 062DEG 14KT 3637 8889
$$
TLSJR
0 likes
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cwachal
WOUS64 KWNS 241644
WOU2
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 212
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010
TORNADO WATCH 212 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
COC009-011-017-061-063-075-095-099-115-121-125-250100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0212.100524T1650Z-100525T0100Z/
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
KIOWA KIT CARSON LOGAN
PHILLIPS PROWERS SEDGWICK
WASHINGTON YUMA
KSC023-025-039-055-057-063-065-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-101-
109-119-129-135-137-153-171-175-179-181-187-189-193-195-199-203-
250100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0212.100524T1650Z-100525T0100Z/
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE CLARK DECATUR
FINNEY FORD GOVE
GRAHAM GRANT GRAY
GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL
HODGEMAN KEARNY LANE
LOGAN MEADE MORTON
NESS NORTON RAWLINS
SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN
SHERMAN STANTON STEVENS
THOMAS TREGO WALLACE
WICHITA
NEC057-087-145-250100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0212.100524T1650Z-100525T0100Z/
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW
OKC007-139-250100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0212.100524T1650Z-100525T0100Z/
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER TEXAS
TXC011-065-087-129-179-195-211-233-295-341-357-375-381-393-421-
483-250100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0212.100524T1650Z-100525T0100Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH
DONLEY GRAY HANSFORD
HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB
MOORE OCHILTREE POTTER
RANDALL ROBERTS SHERMAN
WHEELER
ATTN...WFO...PUB...AMA...GLD...DDC...BOU...
WOU2
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 212
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010
TORNADO WATCH 212 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
COC009-011-017-061-063-075-095-099-115-121-125-250100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0212.100524T1650Z-100525T0100Z/
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
KIOWA KIT CARSON LOGAN
PHILLIPS PROWERS SEDGWICK
WASHINGTON YUMA
KSC023-025-039-055-057-063-065-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-101-
109-119-129-135-137-153-171-175-179-181-187-189-193-195-199-203-
250100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0212.100524T1650Z-100525T0100Z/
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE CLARK DECATUR
FINNEY FORD GOVE
GRAHAM GRANT GRAY
GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL
HODGEMAN KEARNY LANE
LOGAN MEADE MORTON
NESS NORTON RAWLINS
SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN
SHERMAN STANTON STEVENS
THOMAS TREGO WALLACE
WICHITA
NEC057-087-145-250100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0212.100524T1650Z-100525T0100Z/
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW
OKC007-139-250100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0212.100524T1650Z-100525T0100Z/
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER TEXAS
TXC011-065-087-129-179-195-211-233-295-341-357-375-381-393-421-
483-250100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0212.100524T1650Z-100525T0100Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH
DONLEY GRAY HANSFORD
HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB
MOORE OCHILTREE POTTER
RANDALL ROBERTS SHERMAN
WHEELER
ATTN...WFO...PUB...AMA...GLD...DDC...BOU...
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cwachal
WUUS53 KFGF 241647
SVRFGF
MNC089-113-125-241745-
/O.NEW.KFGF.SV.W.0023.100524T1647Z-100524T1745Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1147 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
CENTRAL PENNINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
CENTRAL RED LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT
* AT 1145 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THE
STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TERREBONNE...OR 21 MILES
SOUTH OF THIEF RIVER FALLS...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PLUMMER AROUND 1155 AM CDT.
ST. HILAIRE AND HAZEL AROUND NOON CDT.
THIEF RIVER FALLS AROUND 1205 PM CDT.
HIGH LANDING AROUND 1210 PM CDT.
THEREAFTER SOME OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
INCLUDE MAVIE...ESPELIE AND GATZKE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.
&&
LAT...LON 4849 9607 4849 9562 4832 9561 4777 9597
4777 9634
TIME...MOT...LOC 1646Z 204DEG 46KT 4782 9618
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN
$$
HOPKINS
SVRFGF
MNC089-113-125-241745-
/O.NEW.KFGF.SV.W.0023.100524T1647Z-100524T1745Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1147 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
CENTRAL PENNINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
CENTRAL RED LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT
* AT 1145 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THE
STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TERREBONNE...OR 21 MILES
SOUTH OF THIEF RIVER FALLS...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PLUMMER AROUND 1155 AM CDT.
ST. HILAIRE AND HAZEL AROUND NOON CDT.
THIEF RIVER FALLS AROUND 1205 PM CDT.
HIGH LANDING AROUND 1210 PM CDT.
THEREAFTER SOME OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
INCLUDE MAVIE...ESPELIE AND GATZKE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.
&&
LAT...LON 4849 9607 4849 9562 4832 9561 4777 9597
4777 9634
TIME...MOT...LOC 1646Z 204DEG 46KT 4782 9618
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN
$$
HOPKINS
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cwachal
WUUS54 KAMA 241649
SVRAMA
OKC139-TXC195-421-241745-
/O.NEW.KAMA.SV.W.0060.100524T1649Z-100524T1745Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1149 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA
NORTHWESTERN HANSFORD COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
EASTERN SHERMAN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT
* AT 1147 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR
SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTH OF TEXHOMA...OR
ABOUT 14 MILES EAST OF STRATFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GUYMON...
GOODWELL...
TEXHOMA...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.
&&
LAT...LON 3657 10191 3677 10170 3667 10136 3633 10142
3614 10190 3642 10190
TIME...MOT...LOC 1649Z 228DEG 28KT 3634 10180
$$
NUNEZ
SVRAMA
OKC139-TXC195-421-241745-
/O.NEW.KAMA.SV.W.0060.100524T1649Z-100524T1745Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1149 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA
NORTHWESTERN HANSFORD COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
EASTERN SHERMAN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT
* AT 1147 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR
SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTH OF TEXHOMA...OR
ABOUT 14 MILES EAST OF STRATFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GUYMON...
GOODWELL...
TEXHOMA...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.
&&
LAT...LON 3657 10191 3677 10170 3667 10136 3633 10142
3614 10190 3642 10190
TIME...MOT...LOC 1649Z 228DEG 28KT 3634 10180
$$
NUNEZ
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cwachal
Re: Severe Weather 5/24/2010
Probabilities on the Tornado Watch
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (40%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (90%)
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (40%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (90%)
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0689
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL/WRN KY AND TN/NERN AR/SERN MO/NRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 241651Z - 241745Z
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS AND HAIL. DUE TO
ISOLATED NATURE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE AREA. HOT TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 70S COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT HAS LED TO A
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
IN THE MID MS VALLEY...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO MS LATER
IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH FLOW/SHEAR IS WEAK...GIVEN COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
..HURLBUT.. 05/24/2010
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 212
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO
WESTERN KANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1150 AM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
SEVERAL TORNADOES
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF IMPERIAL
NEBRASKA TO 60 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF AMARILLO TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING ALONG
THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN CO INTO THE WRN TX
PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS EWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN
EJECTING NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM CO/NRN NM...AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE AS SURFACE HEATING
ERODES CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN AN ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR A BROKEN BAND OF
SUPERCELLS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER INITIATION...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
...THOMPSON
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Moderate
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cwachal
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather 5/24/2010
This might be a PDS watch? Although they have been a bit hesitant often over moderate risk areas.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0690
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL SD...WRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 241655Z - 241830Z
A TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN
NEB EXTENDING NNEWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL SD. ALONG WITH
TORNADOES...THE MORE INTENSE CELLS SHOULD HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
WATER VAPOR/RUC IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY
MAX OVER SW KS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING NWWD
INTO NE CO. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHING FROM THE SSW AND SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN RAPID STORM INITIATION IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT DISCRETE STORMS ARE INITIATING NEAR
THE NEB-CO STATE-LINE AND THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND
QUICKLY NWD ACROSS WRN NEB INTO WCNTRL SD THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE MCD AREA AS A 40 TO 50 KT JET
BECOMES MORE DEFINED AND SHIFTS NWWD. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MORE
DOMINANT SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE TORNADOES AND VERY
LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH MORE INTENSE
STORMS.
..BROYLES.. 05/24/2010
ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...
LAT...LON 41110198 41220333 41920351 42450346 42860333 43310316
44200275 44760228 45090139 45059986 44759945 44409941
44109962 43290019 41960071 41110198
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0690
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL SD...WRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 241655Z - 241830Z
A TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN
NEB EXTENDING NNEWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL SD. ALONG WITH
TORNADOES...THE MORE INTENSE CELLS SHOULD HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
WATER VAPOR/RUC IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY
MAX OVER SW KS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING NWWD
INTO NE CO. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHING FROM THE SSW AND SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN RAPID STORM INITIATION IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT DISCRETE STORMS ARE INITIATING NEAR
THE NEB-CO STATE-LINE AND THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND
QUICKLY NWD ACROSS WRN NEB INTO WCNTRL SD THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE MCD AREA AS A 40 TO 50 KT JET
BECOMES MORE DEFINED AND SHIFTS NWWD. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MORE
DOMINANT SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE TORNADOES AND VERY
LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH MORE INTENSE
STORMS.
..BROYLES.. 05/24/2010
ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...
LAT...LON 41110198 41220333 41920351 42450346 42860333 43310316
44200275 44760228 45090139 45059986 44759945 44409941
44109962 43290019 41960071 41110198
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re:
cwachal wrote:it has got to be a PDS they are already showing 3500 SBCAPE
But is there a significant capping still there? Those dynamics with no cap would warrant a High Risk. If capping is a factor, it would be better to put just a normal Tornado Watch with numbers like 50/50.
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