ATL : INVEST 90L

[tolakram]

Looking at the floater and the broader picture it appears the overall circulation is improving with the multiple vortexes becoming less dominate.

[HURAKAN]

12z position

[KWT]

Looking at the floater and the broader picture it appears the overall circulation is improving with the multiple vortexes becoming less dominate.

Well thats the key thing for this system, it probably has a 24-30hrs window before things start to become less favourable in terms of saea temperatures and lapse rates aloft decrease lessening instablity in general.

[HURAKAN]

Very broad vorticity, like we see in the satellite loops

[tolakram]

Loop closeups.

Zoom1, what a crazy center: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=18

Zoom 2: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=18

Zoom 4 (east coast): http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=18

[HURAKAN]

If this is correct, the good times are coming for 90L, shear-wise and SST-wise

[KWT]

Yeah shear is decreasing, SSt's are somewhat marginal however as you can tell by the shallow convection...

Also needs to sort out its domninant circulation, there are various circulations and whilst one is becoming more dominant right now its still dropping southwards meaning its still being swang around by the broad low feature.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I am back. I dont think much for this system any more. I really think that there is no hope.

[HURAKAN]

I am back. I dont think much for this system any more. I really think that there is no hope.

In this business you need a lot of patience!!!

[HURAKAN]

Remember Danny from last year? Even in a sheared environment you can develop a well-defined low pressure system and I still think, just like the NHC, that there is at least a moderate chance of subtropical development, especially if shear decreases and the system moves over warmer waters.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I am back. I dont think much for this system any more. I really think that there is no hope.

In this business you need a lot of patience!!!

I realize that.

But...I do notice one of the lows has convection firing up around it!

[KWT]

Remember Danny from last year? Even in a sheared environment you can develop a well-defined low pressure system and I still think, just like the NHC, that there is at least a moderate chance of subtropical development, especially if shear decreases and the system moves over warmer waters.

Thats the problem there is not a single dominant LLC with this system, its just 3-4 eddy circulations rotating around a very large broad circulation, thats not the type of set-up that will normally see an upgrade.

[cwachal]

just remember even if this thing does not develop we are still looking at the fact that it is only May and this is a sign of what is to come

[Janie2006]

90L has a multiple personality disorder right now.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Ok. If thier is already a thread about this, i didnt know because i havn't explored the whole formus yet.

How accurate are the HWRF and GFDL models?

[KWT]

just remember even if this thing does not develop we are still looking at the fact that it is only May and this is a sign of what is to come

Without a doubt things are still early, long way to go yert...

I still wouldn't totally rule out development with this system but I think unless it does finally manage to develop sustained convection and importantly a single more dominant circulation in the next 24hrs then there is just a chance of development.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Hurricane Andrew]

Latest

if it is not to much trouble, can i get a link to where you got that from?

Thanks.

[HURAKAN]

if it is not to much trouble, can i get a link to where you got that from?

Thanks.

Link - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

[HURAKAN]

A very close look to 90L