Severe Weather 5/24/2010

[cwachal]

at least this is only moving north at 40 mph they will be able to catch up to it since they had to turn around and head back to the main road and then head north

[cwachal]

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 216
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF ABERDEEN
SOUTH DAKOTA TO 15 MILES WEST OF BURWELL NEBRASKA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 212...WW 213...WW
214...WW 215...

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE OPEN WARM
SECTOR...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A WEAK LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KT...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
STORMS COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21040.

[cwachal]

Probabilities on the Tornado Watch

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)


Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)



Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (70%)

[cwachal]

http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/pl ... ter&uid=84


Tornado on the ground again


not sure if it went up and back down but they caught back up to it again and it shows a good tornado on the ground with a huge wall cloud only maybe 100 ft off the ground if that becomes the tornado we could be talking about a half mile wide tornado

[cwachal]

[cwachal]

SPC AC 241938

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN NEB...NWD INTO SCNTRL
ND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
WEST TX...NWD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER IN NWRN MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MO/NERN
AR/NWRN MS...

...CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS...

NUMEROUS DISCRETE...POTENTIALLY TORNADIC...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE
EVOLVED AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING DRY SLOT FROM WRN KS...NWD INTO THE
DAKOTAS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THIS DRY SLOT WELL WITH
MUCH OF ERN CO NEARLY CLOUD-FREE...AND THE DRY LINE REPRESENTED BY
AN ARCING BAND OF DEEPENING CU/SCATTERED SUPERCELLS IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
UPWARD GROWTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX INTENSIFIES AS IT EJECTS NNEWD ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. 18Z
SOUNDINGS FROM LBF AND ABR EXHIBIT VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
STRONG...ROTATING...FAST-MOVING UPDRAFTS AS AIRMASS IS CLEARLY
UNCAPPED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 45-50KT. ENVIRONMENTAL
PARAMETERS REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL...AND
THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IS ON TRACK AS EARLIER
EXPECTED.

...SERN MO TO NERN AR...

A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED BENEATH A WEAK
UPPER VORT FROM SRN IL...SSWWD INTO NERN AR. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EVOLVING WITHIN A MARGINAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BUT WITHIN A FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATE REGIME. IT APPEARS THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE WWD ACROSS SERN MO/NERN AR...AIDED IN PART BY COLD POOL
BENEATH EXPANDING PRECIP SHIELD. LARGE HAIL...APPROACHING GOLF
BALLS...CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

..DARROW.. 05/24/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010/

...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT NNEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS NWD FROM CO TO THE WRN DAKOTAS ALONG A PRE-EXISTING
BAROCLINIC ZONE. IN ADVANCE OF THE CYCLONE...THE WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE NWD FROM CENTRAL SD/MN THIS MORNING TO CENTRAL ND AND NW MN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. S OF THE WARM FRONT...A BROAD WARM SECTOR EXISTS
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL FURTHER INCREASE INSTABILITY AND WEAKEN
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...RESULTING IN A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE-STRONG
INSTABILITY.

THE SITUATION IS COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
MOVING NNEWD OVER WRN OK/WRN KS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOOSE
BAND OF LOW-MIDLEVEL CONVECTION PRECEDING THIS WAVE...AND A
CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS SUGGESTS THAT PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON FROM OK NWD TO SD /ALREADY
FORMING IN CENTRAL NEB/. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A GREATER RISK FOR SUPERCELLS
FARTHER N INTO ERN SD AND SE ND LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER IN PROXIMITY TO THE
WARM FRONT.

FARTHER W...INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING
ACROSS ERN CO...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
FROM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW SWD ALONG THE TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND FLOW
ORIENTATION WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT IN SD. CELL
INTERACTIONS AND BACKED FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS KS/NEB THIS EVENING...THOUGH
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
AFTERNOON INITIATION. FARTHER S...MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SUPERCELLS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR. THE
SEVERE STORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES INVOF WRN ND AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WEAKENS
WITHIN THE REMAINING STRONGLY SHEARED WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE ERN
DAKOTAS/WRN MN.

...MS VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON...
A WEAK MIDLEVEL VORTICITY LOBE IS ROTATING SWWD OVER SRN IL/WRN
KY/WRN TN AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER SC. THE
PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE AND STRONG INSTABILITY UPSTREAM IN THE LOW
LEVELS SUGGESTS THAT THE ISOLATED ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS FROM SRN IL
TO WRN TN WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1949Z (3:49PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[cwachal]

Reported By: Daniel Shaw
Other - See Note
Time: 2010-05-24 19:49:00 UTC
Notes Suspected Tornado damage, not witnessed, Tree line approx 150 yards damaged, Clean up crew on site. Large tree severed

[cwachal]

Reported By: Willoughby Owen
Tornado
Time: 2010-05-24 19:48:00
Notes: Continued long track violent tornado. Stove pipe tornado to N of large tornado earlier

[cwachal]

WFUS53 KUNR 241950
TORUNR
SDC093-105-137-242030-
/O.NEW.KUNR.TO.W.0007.100524T1950Z-100524T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
150 PM MDT MON MAY 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RAPID CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MEADE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHEASTERN PERKINS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
WEST CENTRAL ZIEBACH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 230 PM MDT

* AT 148 PM MDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MARCUS...OR 18 MILES SOUTH OF FAITH. DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FAITH AND IRON LIGHTNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4519 10247 4518 10179 4472 10203 4471 10224
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 177DEG 36KT 4478 10215

$$

SCHILD

[Texas Snowman]

Reported By: Willoughby Owen
Tornado
Time: 2010-05-24 19:48:00
Notes: Continued long track violent tornado. Stove pipe tornado to N of large tornado earlier

Cwachal, just noticed your hurricane forecast...four majors and one landfalling Cat 5. Gee whiz, I sure hope not!!

[cwachal]

Reported By: Willoughby Owen
Tornado
Time: 2010-05-24 19:48:00
Notes: Continued long track violent tornado. Stove pipe tornado to N of large tornado earlier

Cwachal, just noticed your hurricane forecast...four majors and one landfalling Cat 5. Gee whiz, I sure hope not!!

I think the landfalling cat 5 will be somewhere in either south FL or in Cuba

[cwachal]

WFUS53 KLBF 241950
TORLBF
NEC031-242045-
/O.NEW.KLBF.TO.W.0021.100524T1950Z-100524T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
250 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CHERRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 240 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELSMERE...OR 20 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THEDFORD...AND MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM CONSISTENTLY EXHIBITED TORNADIC CHARACTERISTICS
FOR OVER AN HOUR. THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF A TOUCHDOWN
THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF WALL CLOUDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS. TAKE ACTION
NOW AND SEEK SHELTER AND REMAIN IN SHELTER....THIS IS A DANGEROUS
STORM.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
SMITH FALLS STATE PARK AND SPARKS AROUND 340 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE WOOD LAKE...
HIGHWAY 20 MILE MARKER 210 AND HIGHWAY 12 MILE MARKER 10.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4298 10020 4220 10019 4217 10047 4298 10058
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 179DEG 42KT 4228 10035

$$

HIRSCH

[cwachal]

storms are about to move into the region of 3500 SBCAPE

[cwachal]

WFUS53 KUNR 242005
TORUNR
SDC033-047-113-242045-
/O.NEW.KUNR.TO.W.0008.100524T2005Z-100524T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
205 PM MDT MON MAY 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RAPID CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
EASTERN FALL RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
WEST CENTRAL SHANNON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 245 PM MDT

* AT 202 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES SOUTH OF OELRICHS...OR 35 MILES SOUTH OF
DOWNTOWN HOT SPRINGS...AND MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OELRICHS...SMITHWICK...ORAL AND BUFFALO GAP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4369 10332 4360 10280 4299 10314 4299 10346
4299 10347
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 193DEG 47KT 4299 10329

$$

BUNKERS

[brunota2003]

If there is still a tornado on the ground (the couplet has weakened tremendously), it is very likely rain wrapped. I really doubt it is still on the ground, there really is not much of a circulation left, per Doppler.

[CrazyC83]

Still saying large and extremely dangerous tornado though.

[cwachal]

yea the storm has weakened and I would suspect that the tornado is gone

[brunota2003]

18 minutes ago, yes...the next issuance will probably mention a storm with a history of producing large, extremely dangerous tornadoes.

[cwachal]

I take that back we have a major tornado on the ground
http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/pl ... ter&uid=84

[CrazyC83]

This is pretty much border-to-border right now...