ATL : INVEST 90L

[Hurricane Andrew]

if it is not to much trouble, can i get a link to where you got that from?

Thanks.

Link - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

Thank you. It also has the other map i wanted.


I will be issueing my forcast on this, and the EPAC/CARR system.

[robbielyn]

swang? how about swung lol.

Yeah shear is decreasing, SSt's are somewhat marginal however as you can tell by the shallow convection...

Also needs to sort out its domninant circulation, there are various circulations and whilst one is becoming more dominant right now its still dropping southwards meaning its still being swang around by the broad low feature.

[MGC]

I don't see how 90L warrents code orange. 90L is a big mess with too much shear and dry air to get going right now. Perhaps in a couple of days conditions might improve.......MGC

[wxman57]

That's the problem there is not a single dominant LLC with this system, its just 3-4 eddy circulations rotating around a very large broad circulation, thats not the type of set-up that will normally see an upgrade.

Precisely. There isn't any well-defined center other than the center of the broad low that has those small insignificant eddies rotating around. There is some convection to the north of the broad low now, though, a sign that shear may be letting up a bit. But this system has quite a long ways to go to become Alex. Earliest possibly tomorrow night if it could develop convection over a center and have that convection persist. But by Wednesday, the low starts moving off to the NE over cooler water.

[wxman57]

I don't see how 90L warrents code orange. 90L is a big mess with too much shear and dry air to get going right now. Perhaps in a couple of days conditions might improve.......MGC

Look at it this way, the NHC is now defining the probability of development to the nearest 10%. This "code orange" is a 30% chance of development over the next 48 hrs. That's a 70% chance it won't develop during that time. I'd say that is a fair estimate.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I opened a INVEST 90L contest if you guys want to participate. It's in the contest forums.

[Annie Oakley]

I opened a INVEST 90L contest if you guys want to participate. It's in the contest forums.

Hi Andrew-could you post the link for that please? Thanks in advance!

[Hurricane Andrew]

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=108020

Here ya'll go

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to Code Yellow

ABNT20 KNHC 242341
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
745 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
THE BAHAMAS REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND THE POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IS
DIMINISHING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS LOW
IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND IS STILL PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. NO FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS ON THIS SYSTEM ARE ANTICIPATED.
$$

FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

[Aquawind]

YAY!! VERY low chance of development..still be careful playing in the water..

[srainhoutx]

About time 'bones' showed up...

[MGC]

Glad the NHC agrees with me!.......MGC

[HURAKAN]

00z

AL, 90, 2010052500, , BEST, 0, 280N, 704W, 40, 1007, LO

[HURAKAN]

I also agree with the NHC that the chances are low but I wouldn't kill it before it's dead. I would like to see how it responds in the next 48 hours to lower shear values and the Gulf Stream.

[HURAKAN]

48 hours

[wxman57]

Models have always predicted that it would reach peak strength tomorrow night/Wednesday. But it's looking like it won't reach the organization level necessary for naming.

[HURAKAN]

NHC pulling the plugs

[HURAKAN]

[jaxfladude]

..................
NHC pulling the plugs

Just pull the plug on the season NHC!
Do not like the set up STORM2K Forums is talking about of late for the upcoming hurricane season.
"Storm Cancel" is fine with me.

[HURAKAN]

Good pic