DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2010
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
TWO LARGE UPPER LOWS -- ONE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC OFF THE W COAST AND
THE OTHER MOVING SWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES -- WILL REMAIN
THE MOST OBVIOUS/SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ALOFT THIS PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...WEAKER LOWS/TROUGHS WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE...LINGER JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...AND SHIFT NEWD
ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
WEST...WHILE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHIFTS SWWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES. IN BETWEEN...A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS/MID MO VALLEYS...AND THEN
WWD ACROSS KS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
...HIGH PLAINS...
SELY FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY RELATIVELY
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR...WHICH -- WHEN SUBJECTED TO DAYTIME HEATING --
WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS...EVENTUALLY EXTENDING FROM MT SWD TO NM.
WHILE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG...LOW-LEVEL SELYS BENEATH MID-LEVEL
SWLYS WILL YIELD SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING
STORMS...AND THUS THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
IS EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES -- PARTICULARLY INTO MT WHERE AN
EWD-MOVING MCS MAY DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 40 KT-PLUS ESELY
LOW-LEVEL JET.
...PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...
STRONG HEATING WILL YIELD MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...S OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHIFTING SWWD ACROSS THIS
REGION. WHILE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN NW OF THE FRONT IN
THE COOLER AIR...AMPLE NWLYS ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY SUPPORT
SEWD-MOVING STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS...AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS HAIL. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...BUT THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
...MID MO/MID MS VALLEYS SWD INTO THE ARKLATEX AND VICINITY...
A LARGE AREA OF RELATIVELY LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
EVIDENT FROM ERN KS NEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY INTO THE SRN UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SWD ALONG AND W OF THE MS VALLEY TO NRN
LA...WHERE A MOIST/UNSTABLE AFTERNOON AIRMASS WILL EXIST. STORMS
FROM KS NEWD INTO IL/SRN WI WILL LIKELY BE LOOSELY TIED WITH THE
WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED/SOMEWHAT SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING NEWD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...STORM
DEVELOPMENT FARTHER S MAY BE AIDED BY A SECOND SUBTLE FEATURE MOVING
WSWWD IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE LOW OFF THE SERN U.S. COAST.
WHILE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THIS
AREA...PULSE-TYPE STORMS -- POSSIBLY ORGANIZING AT TIMES ALONG
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS -- WILL LIKELY YIELD OCCASIONALLY
STRONGER/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..GOSS/GRAMS.. 05/26/2010
