Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Here are the short and long range radars that show plenty of rain in the area and more is way SW moving NE so the train will continue.

[msbee]

light steady rain falling here now

[BatzVI]

It's definitely wet here in St. Thomas....wish I didn't have to bowl tonight, hate driving in this kind of weather....

[cycloneye]

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 PM AST THU MAY 27 2010

...AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PUERTO RICO BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
MOISTURE COMBINES WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND LOCAL ISLAND
EFFECTS...RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE ENHANCED TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT BOTH PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PUERTO RICO...AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN WHERE SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED. DUE TO THE
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COVERAGE OF THIS EVENT...FLOODING OF
SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS IS EXPECTED... ALONG WITH RISES IN
MANY OF THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF
2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THIS EVENT...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS LOCALLY FAVORED AREAS. LOCAL
RESIDENTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AS THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS EVENT.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
622 PM AST THU MAY 27 2010

PRC049-147-VIC010-020-030-280115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0147.100527T2222Z-100528T0115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CULEBRA PR-VIEQUES PR-SAINT JOHN VI-SAINT THOMAS VI-SAINT CROIX VI-
622 PM AST THU MAY 27 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES AND ISLANDS...

IN PUERTO RICO
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT JOHN...SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT CROIX

* UNTIL 915 PM AST

* AT 610 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
THAT A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND EXTENDING ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE ONSHORE AND WILL AFFECT SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO
LATER TONIGHT. PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...REDUCED
VISIBILITIES... ALONG WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 930 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[Gustywind]

Looking at the sat pics and the loop, Antigua and Barbuda even Guadeloupe could be in some nice rains showers during the next couple of hours... Let's wait and see.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
855 PM AST THU MAY 27 2010

PRC049-147-VIC010-020-030-280415-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0147.000000T0000Z-100528T0415Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CULEBRA PR-VIEQUES PR-SAINT JOHN VI-SAINT THOMAS VI-SAINT CROIX VI-
855 PM AST THU MAY 27 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES AND ISLANDS...

IN PUERTO RICO
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT JOHN...SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT CROIX

* UNTIL 1215 AM AST

* AT 845 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
THAT A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND EXTENDING ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...
REDUCED VISIBILITIES...ALONG WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 1215 AM AST...FRIDAY MORNING.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND GUTS...
AND LOW SPOTS IN HIGHWAYS. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO
FLOODING. ALSO...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
955 PM AST THU MAY 27 2010

.UPDATE...A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS
EVENING. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THESE
SECTIONS AND ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING...AFFECTING
THEREAFTER THE REST OF THE ISLAND. THUS...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES WITH
SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AND SUBTROPICAL JET SEGMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO RICO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAIN OVERALL WET CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN.

DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...LOCAL RESIDENTS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDS AND TEMPORARY IFR CONDS WILL
BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE FREQUENT IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PR AND THE USVI AFT 28/04Z...AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 28/12Z...IN A LLVL SRLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 MPH.
CONDS ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK WILL REMAIN PREVAILING MVFR...BUT WITH
MORE FREQUENT IFR CONDS FORECAST THERE AFT 28/16Z.

[cycloneye]

Good morning on a cloudy and rainy day.

We were fortunate to not get the full convection last night but there is still plenty of convection to our westsouthwest.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 280930
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST FRI MAY 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK..AND PROBABLY
BEYOND...IN A VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN FORTUNATE...AT LEAST FOR NOW.
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PREVAILED ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA HAS
BEEN MOVING EAST NORTHEAST...AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH MAINLY
THE ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS
MORNING. TOPS OF -84C HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN LATEST IR IMAGES IN THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. ALTHOUGH THIS
FEATURE MISSED PUERTO RICO...SOME SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO...PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREED THAT A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN
WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE MAIN TWO
WEATHER FEATURES WHICH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WET
SCENARIO...IS A BROAD TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND
SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...APPROACHING
THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE WEST...AND THIS SECOND LOW IS IN
FACT...THE ONE THAT PROBABLY WILL HAVE A BIGGER IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER...WITH THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO START
THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND LASTING PROBABLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
COMPUTER MODELS NOW MAINTAINS ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP
TROPICS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. DUE TO THIS EXPECTED WEATHER
SCENARIO...AND DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT TO AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALL
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LOCAL RESIDENTS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THERE IS
STILL QUITE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING AND RAINFALL
TOTALS EXPECTED WITH THIS DEEP TROPICAL TONGUE OF MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDS AND TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...IN DEVELOPING NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
PREVAILING VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TKPK AND TNCM...WITH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 90 79 / 80 70 70 30
STT 85 78 86 80 / 80 80 70 60

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-
CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH
CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND
VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ST CROIX-ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

[msbee]

good morning all
St. Maarten remains cloudy and overcast with no rain overnight.
Let's see what tonight and Saturday bring.
Barbara

[Macrocane]

The Pacaya volcano (30 km south of Guatemala city) made a big eruption with lava and ash yesterday, at least 3 people are dead, red alert has been declared in 3 departments of Guatemala including the department of Guatemala where the capital is located. The ash and the rain have mixed making the ash very difficult to clean. The link to the thread in the geology forum:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=108061&p=1985282#p1985282

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1130 AM AST FRI MAY 28 2010

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND INTENSIFIED AS THEY MOVED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND. SO FAR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS REMAINED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIORS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT
CONTINUE TO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FILL IN
ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL AREA AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WHILE SO FAR PUERTO RICO HAS NOT RECEIVED WIDESPREAD FLOODING
RAINS...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
SATURDAY...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM
AST SATURDAY EVENING.

[Macrocane]

I've posted this map in the 90 E thred but I wanted to post it here too, it shows the rainfall amounts beteen May 24 and May 28, some places have received more than 200 mm/7.8 inches but the highest amount has occured in La Union where 350 mm/13.8 inches have been registered.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
215 PM AST FRI MAY 28 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 245 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
JAYUYA...ADJUNTAS...UTUADO...YAUCO...GUAYANILLA...PONCE AND
PENUELAS
INCLUDING
PORTUGES DAM

AT 206 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES EAST OF ADJUNTAS...MOVING NORTHEAST. SOME
OF THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 33 MPH OR MORE
AT LEAST UNTIL 245 PM AST.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES.
AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.
WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST FRI MAY 28 2010

PRC007-009-019-021-025-035-041-043-045-047-061-101-105-107-135-149-
282100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0149.100528T1907Z-100528T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CAGUAS PR-CIDRA PR-COAMO PR-CAYEY PR-COROZAL PR-COMERIO PR-
AIBONITO PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-BARRANQUITAS PR-OROCOVIS PR-NARANJITO PR-
MOROVIS PR-TOA ALTA PR-VILLALBA PR-GUAYNABO PR-
307 PM AST FRI MAY 28 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...CIDRA...COAMO...CAYEY...COROZAL...COMERIO...
AIBONITO...AGUAS BUENAS...BARRANQUITAS...OROCOVIS...NARANJITO...
MOROVIS...TOA ALTA...VILLALBA AND GUAYNABO

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 306 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY
OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...AT LEAST UNTIL
5:00 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan

More periods of rain this weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST FRI MAY 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES..THEN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE TROUGH IS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. MEANWHILE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOW EXTENDING WEAKLY ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PULL FURTHER EAST ALLOWING THE TROUGH
AND A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WITHIN THE TROUGH TO SLOWLY
DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIFTED NORTHWARDS ACROSS
THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGIONAL WATERS AND MOVED NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GENERAL WIND FLOW CONTINUED TO STEER SOME OF THESE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTAL AREAS OF
PUERTO RICO WHERE LOCAL EFFECTS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THE STEERING
FLOW WILL MOVE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
COASTAL AREAS TO INCLUDE PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. EXPECT
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE VIRGIN ISLAND WILL EXPERIENCE
A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...
BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REFORM
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ONCE AGAIN
BRING PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWN POURS AS THE ACTIVITY WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

SO FAR PUERTO RICO HAS NOT RECEIVED WIDESPREAD FLOODING RAINS...
HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...
AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION SATURATED AND LOOSE
SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. THEREFORE...DECIDED
TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
EVENING... AS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE... EXPECT A SLOW BUT
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE AND WEATHER CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY...
HOWEVER EXPECT MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AT LEAST UNTIL THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
THE LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A LLVL SRLY WIND FLOW
OF 12 TO 18 KTS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJSJ THROUGH 29/00Z...IN A +SHRA OR +TSRA.

[msbee]

that thing doesn't look like it is moving much

[cycloneye]

that thing doesn't look like it is moving much

Yes,the moisture area is huge and is like a train so we will be on this pattern for a few days.Look at the sat loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC141-290030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0032.100528T2033Z-100529T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 PM AST FRI MAY 28 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY

IN PUERTO RICO
UTUADO

* UNTIL 830 PM AST

* AT 427 PM AST...RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL HAS RESULTED
IN RAPID RISES ON THE RIO GRANDE DE ARECIBO IN UTUADO. THE LATEST
READING FROM THE USGS SENSOR INDICATED THE RIVER AT 9.44 FEET AND
RISING RAPIDLY. AT 10 FEET...THE RIVER FLOODS HIGHWAYS
10...111...123...129 AND 629 IN THE COMMUNITIES OF CAMPO
ALEGRE...JOBOS AND DON ALONZO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1832 6666 1829 6669 1826 6670 1824 6670
1822 6670 1823 6673 1826 6673 1829 6672
1831 6670 1832 6668

$$

ROSA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN