EPAC : EX TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA

[Hurricane Andrew]

Trying to get caught up this morning...haven't really been paying attention to this system. Will it be coming into the Gulf and where might it be going?

According to what Hurakan just posted, i would keep an eye on invest 90E.

That's what I thought! Just making sure I was looking at that right.

Lol. Yeah,and me up here in NY should keep an eye on this to, encase it tries to pull a Charley.

[Category 5]

If it survives the mountains it would be following the ghosts of many early season storms past. And with the oil situation in the gulf, development or not, this needs to be monitored very carefully.

[clfenwi]

There's not much in the way of model consensus. HWRF and GFDL have been in some agreement on modest development in general, but haven't shown much agreement with eachother (or run to run consistency) on the system's movement. 00Z HWRF has it dying in the Pacific, for example.

Interestingly, the UKMET model, for two runs in a row, has a tropical storm in its analysis. I don't think I've ever seen it analyze a ts when there "wasn't one". Output from the 00Z run follows

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.05.2010

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION :
13.2N 94.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.05.2010 13.2N 94.6W WEAK
12UTC 28.05.2010 12.1N 94.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.05.2010 13.3N 94.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.05.2010 13.1N 93.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.05.2010 13.5N 93.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 30.05.2010 13.5N 91.0W MODERATE WEAKING RAPIDLY
00UTC 31.05.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 280434

[Hurricane Andrew]

Interesting. So does the UKMET have it crossing over?

[IvanSurvivor]

What a way to start the year...for one to cross over.

Which may not happen, but if it did.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I second that IS. what are your toughts on this storms track and intensity?

(oh, if anyone wants to make a forcast, go to te Invest 90E forcast thread.)

[thetruesms]

What a way to start the year for one to cross over...

I don't know about talking about it like it's a certainty yet.

edit - what a ninja edit by IvanSurvivor!

[IvanSurvivor]

What a way to start the year for one to cross over...

I don't know about talking about it like it's a certainty yet.

edit - what a ninja edit by IvanSurvivor!

He He He!

Almost had me!

I can't believe how few people are in here this morning. Even TWC has mentioned this Invest.

[KWT]

Well the GFDL is interesting, esp given it picked up a more westerly track lasting longer then some of the other models.

All I'll say is I wouldn't get too excited about the propsect of 90E becoming a system in the Atlantic...as for the EPAC, its certainly struggled to get over the final hurdle but it probably has a little bit longer yet, certainly enough time to get named still.

Also worth noting the 0z GFDL only barely makes this a TS now and the system barely has a closed isobar in the Caribbean...I think we won't have much to worry about really.

[clfenwi]

Interesting. So does the UKMET have it crossing over?

No, it does not. The final forecast points are to the west of Guatemala.

[Evil Jeremy]

"The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products."

encase it tries to pull a Charley.

Charley was a very rare occurrence, and the conditions now are not the same. Could it pull a Charley? Yes, but only because anything can happen. Is it likely? No.

90E is pulling its act together, but not as fast as I thought it would. It should become classified by the end of the day, and it should become a moderate/strong tropical storm before making landfall, but I think the most likely outcome is that this system dies overland. There is no consensus with the models at all, which makes creating a forecast more difficult than usual, but this should not pose a big threat to the gulf. It is entirely possible that 90E could end up in the gulf, but not the most likely outcome, IMO.

Anyways, I have exams going on, so I have not been able to pay attention much lately, but later this afternoon I'll be able to take a deeper look into 90E, and maybe come up with a personal forecast.

[Hurricane Andrew]

"The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products."

encase it tries to pull a Charley.

Charley was a very rare occurrence, and the conditions now are not the same. Could it pull a Charley? Yes, but only because anything can happen. Is it likely? No.

90E is pulling its act together, but not as fast as I thought it would. It should become classified by the end of the day, and it should become a moderate/strong tropical storm before making landfall, but I think the most likely outcome is that this system dies overland. There is no consensus with the models at all, which makes creating a forecast more difficult than usual, but this should not pose a big threat to the gulf. It is entirely possible that 90E could end up in the gulf, but not the most likely outcome, IMO.

Anyways, I have exams going on, so I have not been able to pay attention much lately, but later this afternoon I'll be able to take a deeper look into 90E, and maybe come up with a personal forecast.

True,i think a bit differintly though.

[cycloneye]

Updated Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert



WTPN21 PHNC 281400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271351Z MAY 10//
AMPN/REF IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 271400)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 12.6N 95.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 281330Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 95.5W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8N
94.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 95.5W, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM SOUTH OF
SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO. THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD RADIAL OUFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM. A 280537Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWED A
BROAD LLCC WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.

[Category 5]

For the record, last crossover was Alma/Arthur in 08.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Do you notice the EPAC Sea temps are dropping rapidly?

[tailgater]

Stupid system doesn't know it's supposed to go WEST

Does anyone know of a site to get this METSAT imagery or if it is available to gawkers?

METSAT IMAGERY AT 281330Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 95.5W

[KWT]

tailgater the GFDL over the last couple of runs did show it getting further west then orginally expected, though it should now be near its western most point.

That being said the assumption it gets taken NE soon may well be made on the assumption that we actually have a system and that may go some way to explain why its kept drifting further west.

[CourierPR]

Regardless of development of this system, I think we will see a piece of energy in the Western Caribbean that will need to be watched.

[Macrocane]

This is the accumulated rainfall between 7:00 am yesterday and 7:00 am today in El Salvador, for 4th day ina row some places have seen more than 100 mm/4 inches of rain in a 24 hours period. This time, La Union (Gulf of Fonseca) was the wettest place with 129 mm/5.08 inches.



And this map shows the rainfall between May 24 and May 28, as you can see La Union has experienced 349 mm/13.7 inches in 5 days.

[tailgater]

Wow, and yall could get alot more over the next few days.