EPAC : EX TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA

[HURAKAN]

The strongest convection is already inland

[KWT]

Yep, probably the convection is being enhanced on the upslopes of the CA mountions, looks like the system is starting to weaken as it starts to suffer from interaction.

Neat Structure, but formed a little too close to land to really get going it seems!

[HURAKAN]

No Humberto here.

[KWT]

No Humberto here.

The big obvious difference here is no doubt those mountions, compared to the ground which Humberto was nearing the ground Agatha is heading for is real TC killing material.

We had just a teaser of what the conditions were like aloft for a 6-9hrs period earlier today.

[cycloneye]

Agatha crossing the coast

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2234.shtml

000
WTPZ61 KNHC 292234
TCUEP1
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
340 PM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

...CENTER OF AGATHA CROSSING THE COAST NEAR THE GUATEMALA/MEXICO
BORDER...

AT 340 PM PDT...2240 UTC...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF AGATHA IS CROSSING THE COAST ALONG THE
BORDER OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF TAPACHULA MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF 340 PM PDT INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 92.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM...SE OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI

[bob rulz]

Well that was anti-climactic.

That's probably a good thing though.

[KWT]

Ah so that confirms that indeed Agatha has sped up to the NE, sort of backs up what the Vis.imagery suggests.

Looks like TS Agatha is making landfall then, good job its speeding up to give some relief to Guatemala and Mexico.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Also, it speeding up will help it cross over quicker.

My next forcast will comeout 8PM EDT.

[HURAKAN]

Hello Agatha, bye Agatha!!!

[HURAKAN]

Burst over the center

[littlevince]

Eight hours loop (14:15-22:15z)

[KWT]

Agatha isn't going to cross over, the system is going to be sliced in half so to speak over the mountions and its the upper parts of the system that ends up possibly in the Caribbean.

Exact track from now on is key, simply put the further south anything exits the better shot it may have. I wouldn't personally put chances above 20% right now even with some models supporting the idea...but then again early systems in the Caribbean do sometimes get sparked by EPAC disturbances coming back northwards.

[hurricanefloyd5]

what ever upper low is left could it affect the oil spill in the eastern GOMEX????

[cycloneye]

KNHC 292338
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
500 PM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

...AGATHA GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER THE GUATEMALA/MEXICO
BORDER...TORRENTIAL RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 92.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM...E OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...ALL OF
GUATEMALA...AND ALL OF EL SALVADOR FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER. THESE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AGATHA WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.1 WEST.
AGATHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...AGATHA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
PRIMARILY OVER WATER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUATEMALA. THESE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE.

RAINFALL...DESPITE WEAKENING...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF EL SALVADOR...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 30 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF GUATEMALA HAS REPORTED UP TO
14 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS.

STORM SURGE...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF EL SALVADOR HAS REPORTED
THAT LARGE WAVES WERE AFFECTING THE COAST. FLOODING AND LARGE
WAVES CURRENTLY OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI

[HURAKAN]

Eight hours loop (14:15-22:15z)

estás escapao.

Translation: that's really good!!!

You always do a great job with the loops! Keep it up.

[littlevince]

Projected path vs Central America Mountains:

[HURAKAN]

Lets see who wins at the end!

[Macrocane]

12 deaths are reported in Guatemala, 11 people are missing and at least 575 homes have been damaged and 3375 people have been affected by the storm.

http://www.prensalibre.com/noticias/Tormenta-Agatha-inundaciones-diversos-puntos_0_270573144.html (In Spanish)

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

EP, 01, 2010053000, , BEST, 0, 147N, 921W, 30, 1003, TD

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