EPAC : EX TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA

[Hurricane Andrew]

Whats with the big convectinve burst?

Is it right over the center?

[HURAKAN]

Nice burst

[HURAKAN]

Whats with the big convectinve burst?

Is it right over the center?

Likely last hurrah and appears to be close or over the center

[cycloneye]

For those members that are new or the older ones here that may not remember,our policy is to wait for the official word by NHC to then change title of threads. Right now is an example,as Best Track downgraded to TD but the title of thread remains as Tropical Storm Agatha until the next advisory comes out.

[HURAKAN]

Almost makes landfall where there was no tropical storm warning

[Hurricane Andrew]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


My forcast.
Notes...
Agatha is now inland, but its bands oare still over warm water. The tarrain it is over is very mountinis. A large convective burst as occered over the center.

0 Hours-TS-40MPH,inland
6 Hours-TS-40MPH,inland
12 Hours-TD-30MPH,inland
24 Hours-TD-25MPH,inland
48 Hours-TD-30MPH,inland
72 Hours-TD-30MPH,enmerging over water
96 Hours-TS-45MPH
120 Hours-TS-55MPH

I hope i gave enough info to give my forcast a solid base.

EDIT:Notes...AGATHA has also sped up.

(yes,i sopport a cross over still)

[HURAKAN]

29/2345 UTC 14.6N 92.0W OVERLAND AGATHA -- East Pacific

your time has expired

[Macrocane]

The strongest wind gusts of the day are affecting San Salvador tonight gusts up to 45 km/h (28 mph) have been registered. These are the rainfall amounts between 0:00 am and 7:00 pm in some stations from El Salvador.

Los Naranjos (west El Salvador): 248 mm/9.76 inches
Ataco (west El Salvador): 189 mm/7.44 inches
Santa Tecla (west of San Salvador): 129 mm/5.04 inches
San Salvador: 82 mm/3.23 inches
San Vicente: 109 mm (central El Salvador)/4.29 inches
San Miguel(east El Salvador): 35 mm/1.38 inches
La Union (Gulf of Fonseca): 65 mm/2.56 inches

[Hurricane Andrew]

29/2345 UTC 14.6N 92.0W OVERLAND AGATHA -- East Pacific

your time has expired

WHich means?

[Andrew92]

I know very little about tropical storms and hurricanes in Guatemala, so I have a question. What's the worst one to ever hit that country?

I ask because I'm looking at news pictures of what this storm is doing and I'm pretty amazed at the flooding I'm seeing. This is no Mitch by any means, but I am wondering if this name could go the way Alma did two years ago. Alma was one of Costa Rica's worst tropical storms - I think I remember some saying Alma caused more damage there than Cesar did in 1996, and Cesar caused most of its damage there, not Nicaragua. Cesar was also one of Costa Rica's worst disasters ever, from what I've read (dunno the reliability of all the sources, however).

I looked at pictures of what Alma did and am looking at what Agatha is doing now anyway, and I see the potential for even worse scenes in Guatemala from Agatha than from Costa Rica due to Alma. I know it's really early to say it, but with 12 people already dead in Guatemala alone - along with one in El Salvador and one in Nicaragua according to Wikipedia - is there a chance this could worsen and this name could go? The flooding just looks really bad.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

WTPZ31 KNHC 300229
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
800 PM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA MOVING FARTHER INLAND...TORRENTIAL
RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 92.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM...ENE OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS
AGATHA MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...A FEW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN SQUALLS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER WATER TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF EL SALVADOR...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 30 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...THE LARGE WAVES OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI


WTPZ41 KNHC 300229
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
800 PM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
AGATHA CROSSED THE COAST EARLIER TODAY ABOUT 330 PM PDT...2230
UTC...IN THE VICINITY OF THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER. THE CYCLONE
DEVELOPED A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION AS IT WAS MOVING
INLAND. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF EL SALVADOR REPORTED STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE WAVES ALONG THE COAST EARLIER TODAY WHILE
DATA FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN GUATEMALA REPORTED RAINFALL
TOTALS OF UP TO 15 INCHES. THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS
FROM THE SURROUNDING STATIONS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS. SINCE AGATHA IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
WEAKENING...AND AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO.

AGATHA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY FAVORS A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD NORTHEAST ABOUT 4 TO 6 KNOTS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. DESPITE THE EXPECTED
WEAKENING...THE CYCLONE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA... EL SALVADOR...AND HONDURAS.

ALTHOUGH ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED AT THIS
TIME...A FEW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD STILL OCCUR IN
SQUALLS PRIMARILY OVER WATER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 14.9N 92.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 15.5N 91.5W 25 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 31/0000Z 16.0N 91.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
36HR VT 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI

[AJC3]

I know very little about tropical storms and hurricanes in Guatemala, so I have a question. What's the worst one to ever hit that country?

I ask because I'm looking at news pictures of what this storm is doing and I'm pretty amazed at the flooding I'm seeing. This is no Mitch by any means, but I am wondering if this name could go the way Alma did two years ago. Alma was one of Costa Rica's worst tropical storms - I think I remember some saying Alma caused more damage there than Cesar did in 1996, and Cesar caused most of its damage there, not Nicaragua. Cesar was also one of Costa Rica's worst disasters ever, from what I've read (dunno the reliability of all the sources, however).

I looked at pictures of what Alma did and am looking at what Agatha is doing now anyway, and I see the potential for even worse scenes in Guatemala from Agatha than from Costa Rica due to Alma. I know it's really early to say it, but with 12 people already dead in Guatemala alone - along with one in El Salvador and one in Nicaragua according to Wikipedia - is there a chance this could worsen and this name could go? The flooding just looks really bad.

-Andrew92

On the first part, I think you answered your own question...I don't know of any EPAC storm that was worse for Guatemala (and, for that matter, Central America) than the Atlantic's Mitch, which caused massive devastation and loss of life from flooding/mudslides.

According to...

http://www.iadb.org/regions/re2/consult ... under5.htm

"Hurricane Mitch hit on Guatemalan territory on October 26, first affecting the northwestern part of the country. It later affected the southeast, the west and the capital. This caused the overflow of rivers, landslides, erosion, and floods. The capital city was practically isolated by collapse and floods on the major highways that connect it to the rest of the country. The magnitude of the hurricane in terms of human lives and destruction was, according to ECLAC the following: 268 dead. 121 missing, 734,198 displaced, 105,055 injured, and 108,594 evacuated; the phenomenon affected 750,000 people, of which 55,000 were still in shelters at the end of November, 1998. Direct and indirect damages were estimated at US$748 million. The agricultural sector had the greatest damages (US$499 million), followed by the highway sector, including bridges and railways (US$90 million) and housing (US$35 million)."

We've seen both Atlantic and Pacific tropical disturbances that were not even declared TD's case significant flooding and mudslides over Central America and the Caribbean, so there's plenty of reason to think that Agatha and what will be her remnants will continue to cause life-threatening conditions and damage for that area.

[HURAKAN]

29/2345 UTC 14.6N 92.0W OVERLAND AGATHA -- East Pacific

your time has expired

WHich means?

time over water

[Cdeck81]

Is a crossover into the Gulf possible?

[Macrocane]

I know very little about tropical storms and hurricanes in Guatemala, so I have a question. What's the worst one to ever hit that country?

Mitch left 268 people dead in Guatemala and 748 million dollars in damage, hurricane Stan left between 1000 and 1500 deaths and 1 billion dollars in damages.

Unfortunately the situation in Guatemala and El Salvador could get worse tonight as the heavy rainfall continue. I mean worse than it has been today not worse than Mitch or Stan.

[Andrew92]

Thanks for the answers AJC and Macrocane. I kinda figured it would probably be Mitch or Stan (just remembered that one a little bit ago), but if Alma can get retired for similar damages in Costa Rica (which I think was why), it just made me wonder about this one. Not likely I realize, but sometimes you just never know.

I also went further and found Hurricane Fifi also caused a lot of damage in Guatemala, leaving about 200 dead there. We also cannot forget about what Hurricane Stan did, though the major disaster may not have been (and likely was not) at least entirely due to that storm. Therefore, this does have quite a distance to go to catch up to those storms and I hope it doesn't. Still, it appears that Guatemala does not get hit by seemingly little storms like Agatha often, so all I can do is pray for them at this point and that it doesn't get any worse.

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

I also remember what that one disturbance in front of Hurricane Ida did to you guys in El Salvador last year and that didn't even need to develop further! Stay safe Macrocane.

-Andrew92

[Macrocane]

Yes unfortunately even unnamed disturbances can produce big disasters in Central America. Thanks, I'll try to stay safe, let's hope for the best tonight but actually I wouldn't be surprised if Agatha gets its name retired after this storm.

[Macrocane]

This is the accumulated rainfall between 6:00 am and 18:00 pm in some places in Guatemala:

Guatemala City 108 mm/4.25 inches
San Jose port 97 mm/3.82 inches
Champerico port 123 mm/4.84 inches
Santa Lucia 126 mm/4.94 inches
Solola 103 mm/4.06 inches
Cuilco 95 mm/3.74 inches

[HURAKAN]

Is a crossover into the Gulf possible?

It's possible but like wxman57 posted in another thread, conditions are unfavorable for any redevelopment.