EPAC : EX TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA

[RL3AO]

I don't want to use the W-word so early in the season but I will say that that is an... extremely optimistic forecast.

Yeah. I'd be shocked if this even came close to being 91L.

[ronjon]

From NWS Tampa Bay AFD:

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

A FEW DISCREPANCIES IN THE LONG TERMS MODELS ARISE THIS
AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM DUE TO ITS RELATIVE CONSISTENCY THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS THE EFFECTS...IF ANY...THAT THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM AGATHA WILL HAVE ON SW AND CENTRAL FL. GFS IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOWING A 1011-1013 WAVE
MOVING NE FROM THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN AND PUSHING THROUGH THE WEST
CENTRAL PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EURO CURRENTLY APPEARS A BIT MORE REASONABLE SHOWING A
MODERATE MOISTURE SURGE REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED UP POPS ACROSS THE CWA (MAINLY COASTAL
LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT WATERS) TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY TYPE OF MOISTURE
SURGE.

[Macrocane]

This is unbelievable in La Hachadura (El Salvador/Guatemala border) 483 mm/19.02 inches were registered in just 24 hours. Other parts of the country registered between 100 and 400 mm beyween 7:00 am yesterday and 7:00 am today. The rains continue in the whole country but are especially heavy in the eastern half of the country. This is the map of the rain accumulated between 7:00 am yesterday and 7:00 am today.

[JTE50]

[/quote]

I don't want to use the W-word so early in the season but I will say that that is an... extremely optimistic forecast.[/quote]

What's the W Word?

[brunota2003]

There's nothing there to regenerate.

I'll use it...the W-Word is -removed-.

[Hurricane Andrew]

But i didnt use the W word. That is my forcast? I have made new studies and my 2PM will be differint, trust me.

[DESTRUCTION5]

There's nothing there to regenerate.

I'll use it...the W-Word is -removed-.

Well at least its not Wilma..lol

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[emanuelrgz]

If Agatha does regenerate, the storm will receive a new name?

[HURAKAN]

If Agatha does regenerate, the storm will receive a new name?

Yes bc it officially dissipated

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Looks like the upper/mid levels are now racing towards the Caribbean, convection pretty sparse though there is a good moist flow from the SW, looks like it may exit a touch further south then progged orginally though it probably won't make much difference to the overall outcome, esp given there is pretty much nothing left anyway!

[ronjon]

I see some CC turning near the west Belize Border - looks like some sort of mid-level turning. I'm starting to think now some sort of disturbed weather may need to be watched in the western caribbean. Sometimes these low pressure systems can magically "jump" over to the other basin.

Latest NWS Miami AFD:

EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM AGATHA MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE
GUATEMALA/MEXICAN BORDER LAST EVENING...AND HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN GUATEMALA...BUT THE TORRENTIAL RAIN
THREAT SURELY HAS NOT DISSIPATED THERE. WHY AM I DISCUSSING THIS?
BECAUSE THE REMNANTS OF AGATHA COULD IMPACT SOUTH FL WEATHER LATE
TUE-WED...POSSIBLY INTO THU. MODELS DIFFER THOUGH. GFS HAS BEEN THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A VORT FROM THIS REMNANT SYSTEM
NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH FL WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING A MORE STRETCHED OUT/ELONGATED
E-W VORT WITH LESS OF A HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL AND POSITIONED TO THE
SOUTH. GFS PWATS INCREASE UP TO ~2.25" BY WED WHILE THE ECMWF MAXES
OUT NEAR 2". THE GFS SHOWS MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGHING MOVING
TOWARDS THE FL PENINSULA...EVEN A WEAK LOW...WHILE THE ECWMF DOES
NOT. BUT EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH
GIVES MORE CREDENCE TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. GFS MOS POPS HAVE
INCREASED...NOW LIKELY BOTH TUE-WED. GIVEN ALL OF THIS HAVE DECIDED
TO INCREASE POPS BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE GFS...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFYING. POPS CAN BE TRENDED FURTHER UPWARD
IF NEED BE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-vis.html

[tailgater]

Still nice little spin over Belize but the farther north it gets the more shear it will encounter. I have it at less 5% chance of developing.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Prayers with those people suffering from the flooding from this system.
As for the future, some upper level moisture from the remnants
might increase rain chances over central and south Florida towards
the middle of the week, but shear induced by troughing should
prevent any tropical development potential in my opinion. I'm not
saying development is impossible, just not too likely at this time.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[brunota2003]

But i didnt use the W word. That is my forcast? I have made new studies and my 2PM will be differint, trust me.

Never said you did, was just answering a question about what the word was.

[KWT]

Still nice little spin over Belize but the farther north it gets the more shear it will encounter. I have it at less 5% chance of developing.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Yeah 5% sounds about right to me, it has a small window to do something over the Caribbean before it starting to get close to the higher shear that is currently ripping across the Gulf of Mexico.

[Sanibel]

I was wondering the same thing wxman57 posted that the trough will be in the eastern part of the US creating unfavorable conditions like a 50-60 jet across the GOM and NW Caribbean Sea.All the moisture should be shunted into E Cuba and Haiti bypassing Florida. This is according to what he said yesterday.

Poof! No chance. (Good for disaster operations)

[CourierPR]

I was wondering the same thing wxman57 posted that the trough will be in the eastern part of the US creating unfavorable conditions like a 50-60 jet across the GOM and NW Caribbean Sea.All the moisture should be shunted into E Cuba and Haiti bypassing Florida. This is according to what he said yesterday.

Poof! No chance. (Good for disaster operations)

Unfortunately, not good for the folks who died in Central America.

[Macrocane]

The death toll has risen to 40 people in Guatemala and 8 people in El Salvador, other 74000 people have been affected in Guatemala and more than 8000 in El Salvador.

Links in Spanish:

http://www.prensalibre.com/noticias/Aumenta-cifra-muertos-causa-lluvia_0_271173054.html

http://www.elsalvador.com/mwedh/nota/nota_completa.asp?idCat=19673&idArt=4836288