WTIO31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/310721Z MAY 10//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 15.3N 63.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 63.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.9N 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.6N 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.5N 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.3N 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.7N 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 23.4N 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 26.4N 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 63.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 03A HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING DESPITE MODERATE, EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 311411Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH THE CENTER
POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST. THERE
IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THIS IMAGE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON THE HIGH
END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THE 310507Z
ASCAT IMAGE SUPPORTED AT LEAST 30 KNOTS. RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS
NEAR THE CENTER SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING SYSTEM. A BUOY (23707) 85 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INDICATED SLP NEAR 1002.4 MB AND SST EXCEEDING 30C
AND A BUOY (23708) 130 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST INDICATED SLP NEAR 1002.6
MB AND SST NEAR 31C. THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN A GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT,
THE SYSTEM HAS A DEEP MOISTURE ENVELOPE. MODERATE VWS IS HINDERING
DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY BUT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS. TC 03A IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS CENTERED
OVER WESTERN, CENTRAL INDIA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY
NORTHWARD BUT SHOULD ACCELERATE BY TAU 48 AS THE STR BUILDS. BY TAU
72, TC 03A SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM
CRESTS THE STR AXIS AND MOVES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A
15 KNOT PER DAY RATE AFTER TAU 24 BUT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 96 AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 310721Z MAY 10
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 310730). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.
