Jim Lushine's Dry SFL May Theory Is On The Clock!

[gatorcane]

altho, i cant link a source...the standard for determining the official starting date of the wet season...three consecutive days of 70deg dewpoints...with the dewpoints remaining above 70deg thereafter, with few transitory departures, until the dry season commences late fall....rich

Source:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/?n=summer_season

Technically this happened about 10 days ago but then this past week the dew points dropped to the upper 60s for a few days and not much rain during this 10 day span as you would see during the rainy season. So will be interesting to see when the official start is designated. Haven't seen a posting from NWS so it may be this week.

[weatherwindow]

thanks for the link...if the 5day forecast from mia verifies, i think that your prediction would be fairly spot on...rich

[Blown Away]

Not much rain forecasted for the remainder of the month.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... MLB&max=31

[Bocadude85]

Im not sure how accurate this theory is... May 2005 had above average rainfall and we got two hurricanes.. but May 2007 and 2008 had below normal rainfall and we had no hurricanes hit South Florida. Is this theory only for the top 10 driest May's or is it for any May with below normal rainfall?

[gatorcane]

Interesting article from NWS Miami. West Palm Beach recorded its 12th driest May of all-time:

"Warmer and Drier Than Normal May in South Florida, Warmest May on Record in Miami":

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/mfl/news ... ummary.pdf

I do not have a good feeling about this season for us in South FL and not just because of the Lushine Theory. Anyway -- working on getting some accordians for the house, and checking the supplies and existing shutters to ensure they work OK.

[Scorpion]

I have had a gut feeling that we would be threatened or hit by a strong hurricane this season for awhile. Everything seems to be falling into place.

[Blown Away]

MAY 2010 RESULTS: Lushine's Rainfall Data Locations: (All Airports)
1. MIA - 3.42" (Avg. 5.52")
2. FTLL - 2.29" (Avg. 6.33")
3. PBIA - 1.25" (Avg. 5.39)

All 3 Airports reported rainfall totals "Much Below Normal". After an extremely wet winter which is SFL's dry season we saw high pressure dominate during May leading to a very dry May. Some argue that SFL May weather patterns are a precursor to what we will see during the summer. If high pressure dominates the SE CONUS during the summer we will see the hurricanes moving farther west as some predict. Is this exact science, no, but it is interesting.