Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
858 PM AST MON MAY 31 2010

PRC021-033-061-127-137-010400-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0165.100601T0058Z-100601T0400Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-GUAYNABO PR-CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-
858 PM AST MON MAY 31 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...GUAYNABO...CATANO...SAN JUAN AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST

* AT 857 PM AST...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
DATA SUGGEST THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY OCCURRING
OVER THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED INTENSE
RAINFALL OVER DORADO...VEGA BAJA AND VEGA ALTA WHERE NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF FLOODING WERE RECEIVED.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
927 PM AST MON MAY 31 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
COROZAL
MOROVIS
TOA ALTA
VEGA ALTA
DORADO
VEGA BAJA
TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 315 AM AST

* ....DANGEROUS FLOODING SITUATION IN VEGA ALTA AND VEGA BAJA DUE TO
RAPID RISES ON THE CIBUCO RIVER. MODERATE TO POSSIBLY MAJOR
FLOODING EXPECTED ON THE CIBUCO RIVER TONIGHT.

AT 922 PM AST...USGS SENSORS INDICATED THAT THE RIVER WAS RISING
VERY RAPIDLY AND COULD POSSIBLY REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. AN EXTREME
SURGE IS COMING DOWN THE RIVER AND WILL FLOOD ROUTE 2 IN VEGA BAJA
AND VEGA ALTA. THIS FLOODING COULD BE WORSE THAN THE ONE JUST
EXPERIENCED SATURDAY NIGHT MAY 29 2010.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC025-063-129-010815-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0053.100601T0222Z-100601T0815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1022 PM AST MON MAY 31 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS
GURABO
SAN LORENZO

* UNTIL 415 AM AST

* AT 1000 PM AST...A USGS SENSOR ON THE RIO GRANDE DE LOIZA AT
CAGUAS INDICATED A EXTREME FLOW OF WATER COMING DOWN THE RIVER. THE
CREST OF THIS RIVER IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE LACK OF RAINFALL
ESTIMATES IN THIS AREA. THE RIVER CRESTED AT SAN LORENZO AND GURABO
SO THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS OVER CAGUAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

[Macrocane]

Look at this graphics that the meteorological service of El Salvador issued today, in the first one they comare Agatha's maximum rainfall in a 24 hours period with other events, in the second one they compare the highest rainfall amount in a 5 days period with other events.

[cycloneye]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1138 PM AST MON MAY 31 2010

PRC029-037-053-089-119-010530-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0166.100601T0338Z-100601T0530Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LUQUILLO PR-CEIBA PR-CANOVANAS PR-FAJARDO PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
1138 PM AST MON MAY 31 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LUQUILLO...CEIBA...CANOVANAS...FAJARDO AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 130 AM AST

AT 1130 PM AST...A REPORT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND URBAN FLOODING
WAS RECEIVED FROM A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TRAINED SPOTTER.
ADDITIONAL BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING OF ROADWAYS...AS
WELL AS SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH 130 AM AST TUESDAY MORNING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Just when I thought the bad weather was gone,last night was the worse period when many rivers went over banks and over 200 families were evacuated.Today looks like a repeat.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010944
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST TUE JUN 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL COMBINE WITH AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS...TO PRODUCE A GENERALLY FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROBABLY
SATURDAY TOO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS AGAIN TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED AND GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SATURATED
SOILS AND ABOVE NORMAL STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS...URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
AND RIVER FLOODING. MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROBABLY SATURDAY
TOO...BUT STILL WITH LIMITED DIURNAL ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...IT WILL BECOME MORE HAZY...AS THE FA RECEIVES AT
LEAST A PART OF A SAHARAN AIR LAYER...AND IT WILL BE VERY WARM TO
HOT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OF 8-10 KFT EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL OF THE USVI AND PR TAF SITES...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK AFT 01/16Z...THROUGH AT LEAST 02/00Z. SHRA
AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AFT 01/16Z WILL
SPREAD ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 01/18Z-01/23Z...RESULTING IN
TEMPORARY MVFR...OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDS. MAINLY VCSHS OR VCTSS
EXPECTED ACROSS REMAINDER OF TAF SITES IN A LLVL ESERLY WIND FLOW
OF 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
LINGERING NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...THROUGH THE END OF MAY...2010 MARKS THE WETTEST START
TO A YEAR ON RECORD AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
IN SAN JUAN. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS RECORD AND OTHER
CLIMATE DATA...SEE THE LATEST NEWS HEADLINE AT
http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN.

[cycloneye]

Wettest start to a year in San Juan

Will this be the year of records? So far yes.Take a look at the stats for the first months of 2010 and for the month of May.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=record060110




May 2010 was the 4th wettest May on record and the 12th consecutive month at the Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport in San Juan where the average temperature was above normal. A list of the top 5 wettest Mays and last 12 months of temperatures at the Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport in San Juan can be found in the tables below. In addition, the total accumulated precipitation of 31.21" through the end of May represents the wettest start to a year on record, 1.45" above the same date in 2005, the previous wettest year through the month of May. (Records from the Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport date back to January 1, 1956).

[Macrocane]

This was a very rainy may for the Caribbean and Central America. I'm not sure but I think this could be the wettest May on record in El Salvador and Guatemala.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
PRC013-065-011845-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
216 PM AST TUE JUN 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 245 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
HATILLO AND ARECIBO

AT 211 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AT LEAST UNTIL 245 PM AST.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 011916
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
316 PM AST TUE JUN 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK JET REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE A
LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY PERSISTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK. A TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SECOND FOLLOWING
SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT MID LEVELS...MUCH DRIER AIR IS NOSING INTO THE CARIBBEAN AT 700
MB AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY
CONTINUE A FEW DAYS MORE HOWEVER OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A BOUNDARY PERSISTS TO THE NORTH AND WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AND MOVE NORTH. AN AREA OF THICK SAHARAN DUST HAS
CROSSED THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND CROSSED INTO SAINT CROIX. THIS
DUST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SPREADING
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 5 MILES. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN
THE AREA BRINGING HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COASTAL PLAINS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DUST MOVED ACROSS THE BARBADOS WITH VISIBILITIES AS
LOW AS 5 KM WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY BOILED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
ISLAND DROPPING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN PLACES. MODELS ARE
EXPECTING MORE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT HAVE BACKED FAR AWAY
FROM THE 100 PERCENT POP THAT THE GFS WAS CALLING FOR FOR THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COASTS. DEWPOINTS...HOWEVER...REMAIN BETWEEN
74 AND 79 DEGREES FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO THE BARBADOS AND SO
MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN SPITE OF THE DUST. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SHOWERS STILL EXISTS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. SOUTHEAST FLOW SPELLS WARMER TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND THIS FLOW WILL REMAIN AT LOWER LEVELS
THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME SEA BREEZES WILL AMELIORATE TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S IN THOSE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER
WEATHER IS COMING...ALBEIT SLOWLY...BUT...BEGINNING FRIDAY
MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN. GIVEN SOME OF
THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE AT MID LEVELS THIS COULD CONTINUE THE TREND
TOWARDS VERY VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE PRODIGIOUS LIGHTNING
PRODUCERS.


&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL LIFT SLOWLY OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO
EVEN AS AN AREA OF DUST SPREADS MUCH LOWER VISIBILITIES OVER THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL WELL INTO THE NIGHT DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND PERSISTENT MOISTURE. DUST MAY PERSIST AREA-WIDE THROUGH
THURSDAY AND CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST WILL RECUR EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION A LITTLE
TOMORROW AND MORE ON THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELL IS DIMINISHING BUT SEAS WILL NOT DROP MUCH
DUE TO INCREASING WINDS FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WIND SURGE BRINGING SAHARAN DUST. SEAS WILL BECOME CHOPPIER
AND VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO AS LITTLE AS 5 MILES IN PLACES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 91 / 30 30 10 10
STT 80 87 80 88 / 30 30 10 10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

23/12

[cycloneye]

More sad news from Central America as the death toll continues to rise,now up to 178.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100601/ts_ ... ralamerica

[msbee]

what a shame!

[cycloneye]

The story for the next few days will be the dust and very warm temperatures in the Eastern Caribbean.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020105 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
905 PM AST TUE JUN 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW WITH
HOT TEMPERATURES...HAZE AND SAHARAN DUST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY AS SEEN ON LATEST TPW
ANIMATION. LEADING EDGE OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER NOT THAT FAR AWAY
OVER THE LEEWARDS/WINDWARDS WITH 3-5SM MILES AND HAZE BEING
REPORTED AT BARBADOS AND GRENADA RESPECTIVELY. ANTIGUA ALSO
REPORTED HAZE AND DUST EARLIER. NAAPS GUIDANCE HAS A REALLY GOOD
HANDLE ON HAZE/DUST EVENT AND IT SHOWS DUST LAYER THICKENING AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSESS. SO ANTICIPATE LOTS OF HAZE TOMORROW
MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE 3-5SM RANGE AND LOTS OF SAHARAN
DUST GIVING A YELLOW BROWNISH COLOR TO THE SKY. 18Z GFS GUIDANCE
SEEMS OUT TO LUNCH INDICATING HIGH POPS FOR TONIGHT. 12Z ECWMWF
RIGHT ON TRACK INDICATING SIGNIFICANT DRYING OVERNIGHT WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING TYPICAL SAL EVENTS.

LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN FOR LONG SPELL OF HOT DRY WEATHER AND HAZY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST
TJSJ SOUNDING AT 02/00Z INDICATED WINDS FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5
TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN SFC TO 8 KFT. FOR TOMORROW...ALL SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE HAZY SKIES DUE THE INFLUENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER.
CONDITIONS MAY GO DOWN TO MVFR VSBYS WHEN THE THICKEST DUST LAYER
WILL BE ON THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...DIMINISHING SEAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HAZE WITH 3-5SM
VSBYS AND SAHARAN DUST.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020956
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST WED JUN 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...WITH ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MORE LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST CIMSS IMAGERY CONTINUING TO INDICATE DRY
SAHARAN AIR HEADED TOWARDS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS HAS BEEN
VERIFIED BY SEVERAL OBS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS REPORTING
HAZE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...PW CONTINUES TO REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS
MORNING IN SAN JUAN...AND THIS AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY.

WHILE THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET WEATHER AS OF
LATE IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20 NORTH...STILL SOME EFFECTS FROM THIS
TROUGH HELPED SPARK SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A DRYING TREND EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS
A RESULT...EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 92
DEGREES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN SAN JUAN...WITH LITTLE RELIEF
IN SITE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE
LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH HAZY SKIES RESULTING IN
TEMPORARY MVFR VSBYS ALL SITES. SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL
ALSO BRING TEMPORARY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ AFT
02/16Z...WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. LLVL
WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ESE AT 10 TO 20 KTS FOR NEXT 24
HOURS.

[Gustywind]

The story for the next few days will be the dust and very warm temperatures in the Eastern Caribbean.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020105 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
905 PM AST TUE JUN 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW WITH
HOT TEMPERATURES...HAZE AND SAHARAN DUST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY AS SEEN ON LATEST TPW
ANIMATION. LEADING EDGE OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER NOT THAT FAR AWAY
OVER THE LEEWARDS/WINDWARDS WITH 3-5SM MILES AND HAZE BEING
REPORTED AT BARBADOS AND GRENADA RESPECTIVELY. ANTIGUA ALSO
REPORTED HAZE AND DUST EARLIER. NAAPS GUIDANCE HAS A REALLY GOOD
HANDLE ON HAZE/DUST EVENT AND IT SHOWS DUST LAYER THICKENING AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSESS. SO ANTICIPATE LOTS OF HAZE TOMORROW
MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE 3-5SM RANGE AND LOTS OF SAHARAN
DUST GIVING A YELLOW BROWNISH COLOR TO THE SKY. 18Z GFS GUIDANCE
SEEMS OUT TO LUNCH INDICATING HIGH POPS FOR TONIGHT. 12Z ECWMWF
RIGHT ON TRACK INDICATING SIGNIFICANT DRYING OVERNIGHT WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING TYPICAL SAL EVENTS.

LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN FOR LONG SPELL OF HOT DRY WEATHER AND HAZY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST
TJSJ SOUNDING AT 02/00Z INDICATED WINDS FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5
TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN SFC TO 8 KFT. FOR TOMORROW...ALL SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE HAZY SKIES DUE THE INFLUENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER.
CONDITIONS MAY GO DOWN TO MVFR VSBYS WHEN THE THICKEST DUST LAYER
WILL BE ON THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...DIMINISHING SEAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HAZE WITH 3-5SM
VSBYS AND SAHARAN DUST.

Absolutely Cycloneye! We have reached yesterday 33°C in two localities here in Guadeloupe. This number was given by Meteo-France Guadeloupe in their first weather forecast at 630 AM this morning. Same scenario today hot hot hot!!!

[Gustywind]

[bvigal]

Gusty, I love your pictures depicting the HOT temps! Yes, dust has been thick since yesterday. And it's still humid here, heat index St. Thomas 7am - 92.8 degF, Guadeloupe 89.4 degF.

[Gustywind]

Gusty, I love your pictures depicting the HOT temps! Yes, dust has been thick since yesterday. And it's still humid here, heat index St. Thomas 7am - 92.8 degF, Guadeloupe 89.4 degF.

Thanks my friend i appreciate. Waouw for St Thomas!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1033 AM AST WED JUN 2 2010

.UPDATE...MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER
PUERTO RICO. THE HEAVY CLOUD COVER ALREADY PRESENT AND SYNOPTIC
FLOW IS RETARDING THE SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND ALLOWING CONVECTION
TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN...EXPECT SHOWERS ON SOUTH COAST TO
DIMINISH OR END DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SO HAVE DECIDED NOT TO
ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE AREA BUT WILL COVER INDIVIDUAL SITUATIONS AS
THEY ARISE WITH URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES. STILL
EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND...WHILE THEY TOO WILL HAVE
HEAVY RAIN...THEY SHOULD MOVE ENOUGH SO AS TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
RIVER RISES...BUT MAY HAVE VERY FREQUENT LIGHTNING THAT WILL POSE
A DANGER TO ANYONE ENGAGING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&


.AVIATION...AT THIS TIME MAIN CEILINGS IN MOIST FLOW ARE ABOVE 030
AND EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS ONLY BRIEFLY. MORE EXTENSIVE MVFR EVEN
IFR WILL BE PRESENT IN PUERTO RICO AFT 02/16Z DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
USUAL WITH THESE STORMS. MVFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME IN USVI OR
TNCM OR TKPK. HOWEVER...AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST WILL LOWER
VISIBILITIES FROM TIME TO TIME TO AS LOW AS 5 SM. LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE GUSTS.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1123 AM AST WED JUN 2 2010

PRC015-025-029-035-057-063-069-077-085-095-103-109-119-123-129-151-
021815-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0169.100602T1523Z-100602T1815Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-CAYEY PR-JUNCOS PR-GURABO PR-SAN LORENZO PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-
ARROYO PR-PATILLAS PR-MAUNABO PR-NAGUABO PR-CANOVANAS PR-GUAYAMA PR-
HUMACAO PR-SALINAS PR-RIO GRANDE PR-YABUCOA PR-
1123 AM AST WED JUN 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...CAYEY...JUNCOS...GURABO...SAN LORENZO...LAS PIEDRAS...
ARROYO...PATILLAS...MAUNABO...NAGUABO...CANOVANAS...GUAYAMA...
HUMACAO...SALINAS...RIO GRANDE AND YABUCOA

* UNTIL 215 PM AST

* AT 1119 AM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF VIEQUES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED AS SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN INTERIOR. PATILLAS EMERGENCY
MANAGERS HAVE REPORTED STANDING WATER ON SOME ROADS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1802 6623 1827 6595 1832 6576 1811 6575
1795 6584 1793 6589 1791 6617

$$

RM