Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

I am posting the June forecast by Phil Klotzbach / Dr Gray in this thread because they have a very high probability of having a landfall in the Caribbean by a major cane.Also,for the first time in their forecasts,they have a special section for the Caribbean (Pages 22-26) only where they talk about the factors that may lead to an active Caribbean.The most important thing for we who live in the Caribbean is to be prepared for the worse but hope for the best.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... un2010.pdf

[cycloneye]

Mj,keep dry there.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
206 PM AST WED JUN 2 2010

PRC049-022000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0170.100602T1806Z-100602T2000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CULEBRA PR-
206 PM AST WED JUN 2 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY...

IN PUERTO RICO
CULEBRA

* UNTIL 400 PM AST

* AT 202 PM AST THE PUNTA SALINAS DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE ISLAND OF CULEBRA. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 4 PM AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ISLAND. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO RAPID RISES OF SMALL CREEKS AND DRY GUTS...AS
WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS.


MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1825 6525 1824 6535 1829 6541 1835 6543
1840 6536 1839 6521 1830 6517

$$

RM

[Gustywind]

I am posting the June forecast by Phil Klotzbach / Dr Gray in this thread because they have a very high probability of having a landfall in the Caribbean by a major cane.Also,for the first time in their forecasts,they have a special section for the Caribbean (Pages 22-26) only where they talk about the factors that may lead to an active Caribbean.The most important thing for we who live in the Caribbean is to be prepared for the worse but hope for the best.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... un2010.pdf

Hope no landfall Cycloneye that won't be a nice thing!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1007 PM AST WED JUN 2 2010

.UPDATE...
THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO QUICKLY
DIMINISHED AFTER SUNSET LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY
SKIES. BY LATE EVENING NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER THE
ISLANDS...AS A SLOT OF DRIER AIR CONTINUED TO SLOWLY FILTER IN
FROM THE EAST. LATEST 00Z TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING AS WELL AS MIMIC
TPW PRODUCT AND GPS MET DATA DEPICTED A GRADUAL DECLINE IN THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGESTS SOMEWHAT OF A DRYING TREND FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD...
WILL LIFT FURTHER WEST AND NORTH AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. EARLIER
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS WELL AS THE GLOBAL AEROSOL OPTICAL
THICKNESS ANALYSIS SHOWED EXTENSIVE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST SPREAD
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE REGION TO REMAIN UNDER
THE PRESENT HAZY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.
INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE WEATHER AND POPS FOR THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS...AS WEAK
EASTERLY PERTURBATION...ALONG WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF TUTT
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...WILL
LIKELY BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENHANCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...VFR CONDITIONS WITH HZ WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 03/16Z. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJMZ...AND TJBQ WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN SHRA AND POSSIBLE VCTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all. Warm temperatures and the dust continues to be the main story for the Eastern Caribbean today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 AM AST THU JUN 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY HAZY SKIES...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TODAY AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO EACH AFTERNOON. REMNANTS OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG WITH
THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL HELP INCREASE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GENERALLY FAIR AND HAZY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS INDICATING AN CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEEPER AND MORE INTENSE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL GET PUSHED
BACK ACROSS THE REGION AS AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE BAHAMAS. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVES
TRAVERSING THE ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO HAVE A MORE NORTHWARD
INFLUENCE...WITH A COUPLE OF ASSOCIATED SURGES IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. STILL WAY TO EARLY TO TRY AND
TIME ANY OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY...SO SIDED MOSTLY TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...VFR
CIGS ALONG WITH SOME HZ WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 03/16Z. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ...WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN A PASSING SHRA OR VCTS. WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE MAINLY VARIABLE AND LIGHT...BECOMING SE AT 10 TO
15 KTS AFT 03/16Z

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1019 AM AST THU JUN 3 2010

.UPDATE...
GPS MET OBS AND LATEST SOUNDING AT 03/12Z SHOWED PWAT VALUES OF
AROUND 2 INCHES...WITH A DECREASING TREND. A DRIER AIR MASS HAVE
MOVED OVER THE REGION BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO GENERATE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS SHOWERS ARE NO EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A
MOISTURE OF A REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONVERGENCE OVER PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN INCREASE OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

[cycloneye]

Wow,very warm today.91F with heat index of 98F.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TJSJ.html

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST THU JUN 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT AN EXTENSIVE
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HAZY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THIS SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AT AROUND SUNSET.
AN AREA OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NOW LOCATED OVER
MONA PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SE AND INVADE THE
OFFSHORE LOCAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...DIURNAL HEATING AND
SEA BREEZE WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL SHIFT AS MODELS SHOW A
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED INTO THE WEEKEND...
ENHANCING CLOUD AND SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ALL SITES WILL EXPERIENCE HAZY SKIES DUE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER...WITH VSBYS RANGING BETWEEN 5 TO
6 MILES. HOWEVER...SHRA AND VCSH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECTED TJBQ AND
TJMZ UNTIL 03/22Z. PREVAILING SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT SOME
COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH THE
INCOMING WEEKEND...MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 93 78 91 / 10 10 20 40
STT 80 88 80 88 / 10 10 20 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

11/10

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

A new web cam has been added to the very long first post of thread,this one from ST Thomas Harbor in the U.S. Virgin Islands. If any Caribbean or Central American member has addittional web cams,post them here to then be added to the big album of cams that is at the first post of thread.

[msbee]

Haze in St. Maarten today!
Guess it looks that way all over the Caribbean!

[cycloneye]

Barbara,it was very heavy the haze here too.

http://www.wapa.tv/tiempo.php?cam=minillas

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
946 PM AST THU JUN 3 2010

.UPDATE...LATEST TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS....WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO QUICKLY DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE
HOWEVER NOTED MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE WATERS...MAINLY NORTH
OF SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN...AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO. LATEST
TJSJ 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING...AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED
A CONTINUED DRYING TREND ACROSS PUERTO RICO...AND THE REST OF THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WITH MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT AND LATEST UPPER AIR
DATA NOW DEPICTING PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES...
COMPARED TO THE 2.0 INCHES OR MORE IN RECENT DAYS. LATEST GFS
MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALED FAIRLY WELL...WITH CONTINUED DRYING
TREND FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND ONLY SLIGHT INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE BROUGHT IN BY
WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS. HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL HELP ENHANCE
DAYTIME CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO. IN THE MEAN
TIME...THE EXTENSIVE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WHICH A HAD GOOD
HANDLE ON PRESENT AND EXPECTED LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD AND MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED BEFORE 04/16Z...EXCEPT IN VERY LOCAL AREAS WHERE
VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED TO 5 MILES IN SAHARAN DUST. AT THIS TIME
VSBYS ARE 5 TO 10 MILES AND APPEAR TO BE IMPROVING SLOWLY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN
WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AFT
04/16Z.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.After one more day of very warm and hazy conditions,a more wetter weather pattern will arrive by early next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
403 AM AST FRI JUN 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO
BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY/WEAKEN ON SAT. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA WILL COLLAPSE SAT AS MID-UPPER TROF DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODIS AND SEAWIFS IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
NICELY DEPICTED A LARGE AND DENSE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS
PR/USVI. REALLY...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THAT I HAVE SEEN AROUND HERE
IN QUITE A WHILE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY
ONCE AGAIN WITH SAHARAN DUST AND SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN NW PR.
SAL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SAT WITH H5 RIDGE
COLLAPSING AS MID-UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SHOW
INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH K
INDICES CLIMBING OVER 30 THAT SHOULD RESULT IN GREATER TSTM CVRG AND
ISOLD AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. 00Z GFS THEN SHOWS POSITIVE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE-WED AND
MID-UPPER LVL TROF THAT SHOULD BE OVR THE HISPANIOLA BY THAT TIME
FOR SOME POSSIBLY VERY ACTIVE WEATHER. ENSEMBLES SHOW TROF
FILLING/WEAKENING MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH GFS INDICATING A MORE
ROBUST TROPICAL WAVE BY NEXT THU. AS ALWAYS ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE DEEP MOISTURE
FOR A WET WEEK AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AFT 04/16Z SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN
WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
TJMZ AND TJBQ. VSBYS ARE 5 TO 10 MILES AND APPEAR TO BE IMPROVING
SLOWLY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 1-3 FT ALL WATERS. GUIDANCE BRINGS SEAS TO
5 FT ACROSS CARIBBEAN WATERS TUE-TUE NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
ROBUST TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF PR. TSTMS OFF THE WEST COAST THE MAIN
HAZARD.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD FOR TODAY AT SJU LMM INTL AP IS 94F SET BACK ON
1993. MODELS PROJECT A MAXT OF 92-93F BUT ALSO ESTABLISH A SEA
BREEZE BY 14Z. SO IT APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY WILL BREAK THIS RECORD.
NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL STILL BE HOT AND VERY UNCOMFORTABLE OUTSIDE.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
226 PM AST FRI JUN 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA UNTIL AT
LEAST TOMORROW. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT...MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND...INCREASING SLIGHTLY THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE AREA OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
MAINTAINING A HAZY...MOSTLY DRY...HOT AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. TOTAL OPTICAL DEPTH ANALYSIS FROM
NAAPS...INDICATES THAT BY 05/12Z THE DENSE SAHARAN DUST LAYER WILL
BE MAINLY OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH A LIGHT SAHARAN LAYER PREVAILING
ACROSS THE REGION THEREAFTER. THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO INDUCE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE JUST ACROSS OR TO THE NORTH OF THE FA BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
IN FACTS...LATEST MIMIC-TPW IMAGES FROM CIMSS SUGGEST A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION BY MID WEEK. A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE WILL
FOLLOW BY FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WITH IT A GENERAL INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
ONLY FEW PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS TJMZ AND
TJBQ. VISIBILITIES ARE IN THE RANGE OF 5-10 MILES IN SAHARAN DUST IN
VERY LOCAL AREAS. AT THIS TIME VISIBILITIES ARE APPEAR TO BE
IMPROVING SLOWLY.

[cycloneye]

The haze has been very thick today.They say that tommorow it will start to go away.

[bvigal]

It was a little better here today than the last two days, then some more moved in. Here's 2 pics of the haze:



Hey Luis, did you notice those showers in Atlantic creeping south toward us?

[cycloneye]

Hey Luis, did you notice those showers in Atlantic creeping south toward us?

Is the same trough that affected PR that caused the record month of May rainfall.The trough will interact with a tropical wave next week to cause unsetteled weather.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST SAT JUN 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL MOVE OUT TO THE WEST TODAY AND
AWAY FROM PR TODAY. A BROAD TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH AXIS TO GRADUALLY STRETCH TO HISPANIOLA BY MON. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE WITH ANOTHER ONE MORE
ROBUST WAVE AROUND THE FRI-SAT TIME FRAME OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SAL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY
WITH SKIES ALREADY BECOMING MORE CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING PER VISUAL
OBS AND IMPROVED VSBYS FROM METARS. MODIS IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY
STILL SHOWED AN AREA OF DENSE DUST OVER THE LEEWARDS BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL NOT ALLOW THIS AREA TO SPREAD
OVR PR/USVI TODAY. NAAPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE THAT THIS AREA WILL
ADVECT WWD EITHER.

MID-UPPER TROF IS DIGGING INTO THE AREA WITH AXIS OVR PR/USVI ATTM PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND THIS MORNING WITH
PWATS IN THE 2.0-2.25 INCH RANGE PER BLENDED TPW IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW DECREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR TODAY
WITH K INDICES AND PW VALUES DROPPING INTO MID TEENS AND 1.75
INCH RESPECTIVELY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
CVRG BUT GIVEN HOW MUCH CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVR THE PAST TWO
DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY NMRS SHRA/TSRA.

TROF AXIS IS TO GRADUALLY STRETCH SOUTHWEST INTO THE MONA
PASSAGE/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SUN-MON WITH MODELS INDICATING A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY SUN. SOME SUBSIDENCE
IS SEEN ON MON AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE FCST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW POSITIVE INTERACTION BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVE
AND TROUGH TO THE WEST TO GIVE US BETTER CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT.

PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO DIMINISH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MID-UPPER LVL
TROF FILLS/WEAKENS AND SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND PASSAGE OF
TROPICAL WAVE TUE AND AHEAD OF A MORE ROBUST TROPICAL WAVE THAT GFS
BRINGS INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEXT FRI. OBVIOUSLY...TIMING ISSUES ARE
TO BE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FRAME BUT HAVE CONFIDENCE IN
TUESDAY`S TROPICAL WAVE AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFT 05/16Z SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN WESTERN
AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO...THEREFORE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS TJMZ...TJBQ AND JUST NORTH OF TJPS. SUSPENDED
PARTICULATES OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE HAZY CONDS...VSBYS ARE 6 TO 10 MILES AND APPEAR TO BE
IMPROVING SLOWLY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 1-3 FT ALL WATERS. GUIDANCE BRINGS SEAS
UP TO 5 FT ACROSS CARIBBEAN WATERS WED BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE. TSTMS THE MAIN HAZARD.

[Gustywind]