ARABIAN SEA - DEEP DEPRESSION (03A)

[Macrocane]

JB said that North Inidian and Atlantic oceans were going to be very active, and it has verified in North Inidian, very impressive and dangerous cyclone out there.

[CrazyC83]

980mb? Yeah right...that would be the best looking storm of that intensity I have ever seen...

[Chacor]

NRL is up to 125 kt/929 mbar.

[CrazyC83]

NRL is up to 125 kt/929 mbar.

That is impressive and believeable. Amazing a 51mb difference between NRL and IMD.

[Macrocane]

IMD is the TCWC and RSMC that underestimate the most the intensity of tropical cyclones.

[mjki5ja2]

Actually, the last TAF out of KQIP (Masirah Airbase) was issued October 23, 2008. The hazy conditions reported are from that date more than a year and a half ago. There are no reliable readings from Masirah at this point.

Well .. The Omani government has started evacuating people from Masirah ... Chief of police has announced on national TV a state of emergency in some areas.
Few showers reported (by friends) in Sur


* Am currently in Mukhaizna ... About 350 Km South west of Masirah .. and its cloudy

[Alacane2]

RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI



TROPICAL STORM ‘PHET’ ADVISORY NO. NINE ISSUED AT 1200 UTC OF 02 JUNE 2010 BASED ON 0900 UTC OF 02 JUNE.



THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, “PHET” OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, 02ND JUNE 2010 NEAR LATITUDE 18.00N AND LONG. 60.50E, ABOUT 1250 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, 1050 KM SOUTHWEST OF NALIYA (KUTCH, GUJARAT), 1050 KM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI (PAKISTAN) AND 530 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUR (OMAN).



SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 80 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 970 HPA.



SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES REGULAR EYE OF THE SYSTEM. THE DIAMETER OF THE EYE OF THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT 12 KM. THE EYE TEMPERATURE IS -650C. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T4.5 ASSOCIATED BROKEN/SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER AREA BETWEEN LAT. 13.00 N TO 20.00 N AND LONG. 54.00 TO 62.00 E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS ABOUT -800C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.



VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS BETWEEN 05-10 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 20.00 N OVER THE REGION. THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.



THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR NEXT 24 HOURS CLOSE TO OMAN COAST AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS PAKISTAN AND ADJOINING GUJARAT COASTS, SKIRTING OMAN COAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AT 500 HPA LEVEL.



GALE WINDS WITH SPEED REACHING 140-150 KMPH GUSTING TO 160 KMPH WOULD COMMENCE ALONG AND OFF OMAN COAST BY 0000 UTC OF 3RD JUNE. IT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE GRADUALLY BECOMING 180-190 KMPH BY 1200 UTC OF 3RD JUNE AND 210-220 KMPH BY 0000 UTC OF 4TH JUNE. SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE PHENOMENAL ALONG AND OFF OMAN COAST.



BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN BELOW:



DATE/TIME(UTC)
POSITION (LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)

02-06-2010/0900
18.0/60.5
140-150 gusting to 160

02-06-2010/1200
18.0/60.5
150-160 gusting to 170

02-06-2010/1800
18.5/60.0
160-170 gusting to 185

03-06-2010/0000
19.0/59.5
170-180 gusting to 195

03-06-2010/0600
19.5/59.5
180-190 gusting to 205

03-06-2010/1800
20.5/59.5
200-220 gusting to 235

04-06-2010/0600
22.5/60.5
200-220 gusting to 235

04-06-.2010/1800
23.5/63.5
200-220 gusting to 235

05-06-.2010/0600
24.5/66.5
200-210 gusting to 225

[somethingfunny]

Has anyone ever questioned and gotten an answer from the Indian Meteorological Service as to why their intensity estimates are frequently so much different from the JTWC's and NRL's? Surely, they have an explanation for their procedures.

I have a question of my own: This storm is a fairly small system and it's very close to the Arabian Peninsula. Why isn't dry air being dragged into the circulation?

[salmon123]

Now track changed again OMAN is in serious danger

[somethingfunny]

Population density map.

[CrazyC83]

Densely populated area as well.

I think quietly Karachi is hoping it hits Oman since it should weaken rapidly once there...but Oman faces a huge disaster...

[shah8]

That track is incredibly bad news. That makes for an incredible flood disaster that makes Gonu look like a piker. It's all lowlands for much of that track until the projected turn right before the highlands overseeing the north coast.

Also. Cat 5 landfall. Rare. Almost always big news when it happens if it's not in a nowheres kind of place.

[HURAKAN]

It may have weakened

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 18.2N 60.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 60.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.0N 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.9N 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.7N 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.6N 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.6N 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 25.9N 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.7N 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 59.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03A HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSED
AT 125 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 127 KNOTS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED 30 NM EYE. A MID-
LATITUDE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. TC 03A CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ONTO THE COAST OF
OMAN BY TAU 36, WHERE IT SHOULD SLOW AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
LAND. IT WILL THEN BEGIN TO RECURVE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
INTO THE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE IN SPEED. TC PHET SHOULD
THEN ENTER BACK OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA BY TAU 72 WITH AN
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. TC 03A WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION DUE TO HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF PAKISTAN BY TAU 96. TC PHET WILL
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 120.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A SPLIT BETWEEN
THE FASTER RECURVERS (UKMO, ECMWF, WBAR) AND THOSE THAT ARE SLOWER
(GFDN, GFS, NOGAPS), TAKING THE SYSTEM OVER OMAN. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS CONTINUALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD WITH A SLOWER RECURVE TO THE EAST.
THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE MODELS SLOWER TO RECURVE AND IS SIMILAR TO
MODEL CONSENSUS, TAKING TC 03A OVER OMAN AND WEAKENING IT
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z,
030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//
NNN

[HURAKAN]

Powerful Cyclone Phet barrels toward Oman

(Reuters) - Tropical cyclone Phet barreled toward the coast of the Gulf Arab state of Oman on Wednesday, strengthening quickly on its way to becoming a powerful category five storm.

World

Phet was not expected to make landfall in Oman, but should instead turn to skim parallel to the Sultanate's shore before roaring northeast toward Pakistan, according to tropical storm watch website http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com.

Phet would steer clear of the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 percent of all seaborne oil trade passes, or about 17 million barrels per day (bpd).

Phet was a Category 3 storm on Wednesday, with sustained winds of over 130 mph. It was expected to become a Category 5 storm, the most powerful with winds of over 156 mph, in the next 24 hours.

Phet would lash Oman's eastern region shores with hurricane-strength winds through Friday before moving northeast. It was expected to weaken before coming ashore just south of Karachi as a Category 3 storm on Sunday.

Oman is a small independent oil producer, pumping about 850,000 bpd. Most of its exports move from the ports of Mina al-Fahal, near the capital of Muscat. The storm was expected to turn northeast before reaching Muscat.

Operations at Oman LNG, the Sultanate's export facility for liquefied natural gas (LNG), were to date unaffected, an Oman LNG spokesperson said.

The three LNG production facilities, known as trains, are based in Sur in the eastern region, closer to the path of the storm. The region is also home to Oman's green back turtle.

"It is business as usual so far with Oman LNG but we are in touch with the authorities to see if there would be any change" Nasser al-Kindy, head of corporate communications at Oman LNG told Reuters.

Oman was battered by powerful Cyclone Gonu in 2007. The storm killed at least 54 people in Oman and Iran.

(Reporting by Saleh al-Shaibany; Writing by Simon Webb; Editing by Elizabeth Fullerton)

[djones65]

In the latest advisory from JTWC at 1500 UTC they estimate that hurricane force winds extend out 45 nautical miles east of the center and 35 nautical miles to the west. They estimate tropical storm force winds to extend out 85 nautical miles to the east and 75 nautical miles to the west. I am not sure how they estimated these figures unless there are some ASCAT pics available to them or perhaps they are just using climatology, but if they are accurate tropical storm force winds will be impinging on the coastline of Oman very shortly. The storm was estimated at 1200 UTC to be only about 95 miles off the coastline moving northwestward at 8 knots.

I have been scouring ship reports around Phet for the past few days. Interestingly there is a broad swath of tropical storm force winds that extend well to the south and southwest of the storm (probably due to the monsoon trough that extends SW of the hurricane) that extends over 300 nautical miles south of Phet's center. If you go to the NDBC site and put in the coordinates of Phet and search up to 350 nm from the center you will see these reports. The most recent at 1500 UTC showed a ship 339 nm SSW of the center reporting WSW winds of 48kt and 23 foot seas with a pressure of 1007 mb. There are at least three other reports at about 300 nm south of Phet's center reporting winds of 35 to 40 kt with seas up to 25 feet. A ship 307nm ENE of Phet reported 23kt southerly winds and 23ft seas with a pressure of 1008 mb at 1200 UTC. My point is that perhaps Phet is much larger than JTWC may be estimating and therefore strong winds may be moving onshore the coast of Oman much earlier than one would think and well before the storm's center reaches the coast.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... =A&time=12

[CrazyC83]

Dry air seems to be getting into it...which is to be expected so close to the Arabian Peninsula...

[Category 5]

Wow at the track shift since last night. This is looking like Gonu the sequel.

I see IMD still hasn't gotten a person with a met degree to look at this.

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[HURAKAN]

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