DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS...UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...
...SYNOPSIS...
A QUASI-ZONAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY. SEVERAL LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OF INTEREST...INCLUDING ONE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NERN STATES ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD
FRONT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NRN
ROCKIES...REACHING HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. YET ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH SRN ONTARIO WITH ATTENDANT FRONT MOVING EWD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SWD BEFORE LIKELY STALLING ACROSS NEB IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPSTREAM TROUGH.
...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO ADVECT NEWD THROUGH ERN PORTIONS
OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER MS VALLEY...AND GREAT LAKES PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LIKELY RESULTING
IN MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. A
FEW STORMS MAY BE ONGOING WITHIN THE ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION OVER A
PORTION OF THE CNTRL PLAINS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO
INTENSIFY ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AS THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD.
SEVERAL OTHER POTENTIAL AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL EXIST
INCLUDING ALONG THE EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. OTHER STORMS MAY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING
WITHIN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME FROM NERN CO INTO SERN WY. STILL
OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND AUGMENTS ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE STALLING FRONT
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL MCSS TO DEVELOP. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
...OH VALLEY...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH NERN STATES...
MOIST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND WEAK CAP WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS DEEP LAYER WINDS
IN WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN MODEST...AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH
LIKELIHOOD CLOUDY AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT INSTABILITY. WHILE A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL EXIST WITH STRONGER
STORMS...THE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL RISK
AT THIS TIME.
Doesn't look good for the area at all, they've been getting hammered by heavy rain, hail, and wind for a couple of days now.
