Mid Atlantic Weather 2010

[Stephanie]

Okay, the lilacs, cherry blossoms, dogwoods, etc. are all blooming - at least 2 weeks early. Now we're going down to 40 tonight. Back to more seasonal temperatures this weekend - low 60's.

[angelwing]

I haven't seen a potential for SE PA like this in a while:



SPC AC 141249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HI
PLNS/LWR RIO GRANDE VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS/TN VLYS ENE TO
THE MID ATLANTIC CST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SERN U.S. RIDGE WILL SOMEWHAT FLATTEN AS ONT UPR LOW CONTINUES ESE
INTO SRN QUE. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER MN SHOULD SHEAR EWD
AROUND BASE OF THE TROUGH...REACHING THE LWR GRT LKS THIS EVE.
FARTHER W...SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE OPEN TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN DESERTS
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER UT LATER
TODAY...BEFORE CONTINUING ENE INTO WY EARLY SAT. AN IMPULSE IN THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH...NOW OVER SRN AZ...SHOULD CROSS NM
TONIGHT/EARLY SAT.

AT THE SFC...CDFNT WITH ONT/QUE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLC STATES...THE CNTRL APLCNS AND THE TN/LWR MS VLYS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WRN END OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME STNRY
OVER THE SRN HI PLNS.

...SRN HI PLNS/LWR RIO GRANDE VLY...
MOIST LOW LVL SELY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY/
SRN HI PLNS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALONG FRINGE OF MODERATE SWLY MID
LVL JET ASSOCIATED WITH WRN TROUGH. UPSLOPE FLOW... DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...AND WEAK UVV WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPR IMPULSE SHOULD
SUPPORT NUMEROUS AFTN/EVE TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW TX/SE
NM. IN ADDITION...SCTD SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE N
OF STALLING FRONT OVER ERN NM AND WRN PARTS OF THE LOW ROLLING PLNS.


WITH SBCAPE REACHING 2000-2500 J/KG...WEAK CINH...AND 35-40 KT OF
DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR AS STORMS MOVE/
DEVELOP ESE TOWARD THE TRANS PECOS REGION/LWR PLAINS BY EVENING.
THESE COULD YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. THE STORMS COULD
EVOLVE INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS WITH GUSTY/DMGG WINDS OVER PARTS
OF W CNTRL AND SW TX THIS EVE. OTHER STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR STORMS MAY
CROSS THE LWR RIO GRANDE FROM NE MEXICO INTO TX TONIGHT.

...LWR MS/TN VLYS ENE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
BANDS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND N
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE SRN
OZARKS ENE TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MOIST
/WITH PW AOA 1.50 INCHES/ LOW-LVL FLOW CONTINUES. COMBINED WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG HEATING...SUFFICIENT CAPE /2000-3000 J PER KG/
SHOULD DEVELOP FOR NUMEROUS NEW STORMS ALONG THE SRN FRINGES OF
MORNING ACTIVITY. GLANCING INFLUENCE OF GRT LKS TROUGH MAY SUPPORT
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY FROM KY NEWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST.

40-45 KT WSW MID-LVL FLOW ON NRN FRINGE OF UPR RIDGE SHOULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS MARGINAL
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM KY/TN TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...AND
OVER CNTRL/SRN PA TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST. EMBEDDED BOWS MAY YIELD
BOTH DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVE.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/14/2010

[lester]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC001-003-009-013-021-037-041-043-051-055-057-059-061-063-067-
071-075-087-093-097-099-107-109-111-125-129-133-150100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0173.100514T1830Z-100515T0100Z/

PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS ALLEGHENY BEDFORD
BLAIR CAMBRIA COLUMBIA
CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN FAYETTE
FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE
HUNTINGDON INDIANA JUNIATA
LANCASTER LEBANON MIFFLIN
MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY
SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SOMERSET
WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND YORK

. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE
CALVERT CARROLL CHARLES
FREDERICK GARRETT HARFORD
HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES
ST. MARYS WASHINGTON


MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY

. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALBEMARLE ALLEGHANY ARLINGTON
AUGUSTA BATH CLARKE
CULPEPER FAIRFAX FAUQUIER
FREDERICK GREENE HIGHLAND
KING GEORGE LOUDOUN MADISON
NELSON ORANGE PAGE
PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK ROCKBRIDGE
ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH SPOTSYLVANIA
STAFFORD WARREN


VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDRIA BUENA VISTA CHARLOTTESVILLE
COVINGTON FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH
FREDERICKSBURG HARRISONBURG LEXINGTON
MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK STAUNTON
WAYNESBORO WINCHESTER
$$


WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBOUR BERKELEY BOONE
BRAXTON CABELL CALHOUN
CLAY DODDRIDGE FAYETTE
GILMER GRANT GREENBRIER
HAMPSHIRE HARDY HARRISON
JACKSON JEFFERSON KANAWHA
LEWIS LINCOLN LOGAN
MARION MARSHALL MASON
MCDOWELL MERCER MINERAL
MINGO MONONGALIA MONROE
MORGAN NICHOLAS PENDLETON
PLEASANTS POCAHONTAS PRESTON
PUTNAM RALEIGH RANDOLPH
RITCHIE ROANE SUMMERS
TAYLOR TUCKER TYLER
UPSHUR WAYNE WEBSTER
WETZEL WIRT WOOD
WYOMING
$$

ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD

CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD

TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA

PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR

PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD
$$

[Stephanie]

We had some nice storms roll through my area beginning after 7:00 pm. Actually, I was racing home from the grocery store and literally throwing the bags into the house as cloud to ground lightning was flashing in the near distance. Lots of rain.

There was a tornado warning issued for Berks County, PA at around 6:00 pm but I don't know if it verified.

[Category 5]

Looks like the summer pattern is getting ready to set up camp till September. Nice day today, bit on the warm side but that what AC is for.

[Category 5]

Interesting set up this week

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WOULD EXPECT ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE TERRAIN TO BE GONE BY
SUNSET. WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING FIRMLY IN PLACE...WOULD EXPECT
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. WITH THE AIRMASS CHANGING LITTLE
TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT PATCHY FOG. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG FOR
TONIGHT...AND BASED ON THE SMALL AIRMASS CHANGE...THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER NAM MOS NUMBERS APPEAR TO BE GOOD FOR LOWS.

THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS THE EXTENT
OF CONVECTION. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE AROUND MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES PUSHES A SHALLOW FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE BEEN
WARMING FROM WITHIN THROUGH THAT TIME...AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
REACH +16/+17 CELSIUS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND THIS IS CLOSE TO THE MOS BLEND.

AS THE FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON...IT
MAY BECOME MUCH COOLER NEAR THE SHORE. THIS IS IMPORTANT...AS IT
WILL INTRODUCE A LAYER OF SURFACE BASED STABILITY FOR THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER WEST...THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION IN MOST PLACES.

THE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME UNSTABLE AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND THE
SHALLOW FRONT SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUS. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL
TRIGGER WILL BE ABSENT...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION SCATTERED
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AT BEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH CAPE
VALUES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THIS COULD BE A BIT
OVERDONE AS MODEL DEW POINTS APPEAR TO BE 5 TO 7 DEGREES TOO HIGH.

IN ANY EVENT...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO DRIFT SOUTH.
CONVECTION THAT CAN TAP THE INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION...ALONG
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES...COULD ALSO MAKE
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING A CONCERN AS WELL.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THE PROCESS
REPEATS ITSELF THURSDAY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE CLOSED
MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE MARITIMES WILL PUSH ANOTHER SHALLOW
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF
MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONCE AGAIN...MODEL DEW POINTS APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH (THUS CAPE
VALUES LOOK TOO HIGH). HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION
LOOKS BETTER FOR THURSDAY THAN WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LOWERING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS...THE GFS MOS NUMBERS APPEAR TO BE TOO WARM FOR
THURSDAY...AND SHADED HIGHS BACK TOWARD THE COOLER NAM MOS NUMBERS.

[Stephanie]

Nothing was severe around here from the latest line of storms, but we did get lightning, thunder and rain. Tomorrow and Memorial Day will be in the mid to upper 80's.

[Category 5]

Looking like a warm, humid week. SPC isn't mentioning us but I see the oppurtunity for some thunderstorms a few times this week. Today included. Maybe a stray one goes severe.

[Category 5]

And shortly after I say that the radar lights up at 12 noon.

[Category 5]

Pouring in Moorestown

[Stephanie]

I came through a HEAVY downpour as I was making my way up the AC Expressway before my exit. It was the type you really need to pull over for.

I was also watching the clouds - pretty funky looking. One was kind of elongated coming from within the clouds. I couldn't see rotation around it because by that time the downpour hit. A bit freaky.

[angelwing]

I got drenched at 1:30 leaving Wrightstown, cleared up by the time I hit Bordentown, then wouldn't you know it, as soon as I got home in Blue Bell it started pouring again, this was at 2:40 and I got drenched again, sigh

[Category 5]

Thats what it did here. Off and on for a few hours.

Hot and humid again today, then back into the storms tomorrow.

[Category 5]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 251
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM EDT THU JUN 3 2010

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 251 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-
041-040100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0251.100603T1730Z-100604T0100Z/

NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN
CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER
HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX
MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN
SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX
WARREN
$$

[lester]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 251
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM EDT THU JUN 3 2010

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 251 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-
041-040100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0251.100603T1730Z-100604T0100Z/

NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN
CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER
HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX
MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN
SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX
WARREN
$$

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 251
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM EDT THU JUN 3 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DELAWARE
MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
FAR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF
STAUNTON VIRGINIA TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAKEHURST NEW JERSEY.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 250...

DISCUSSION...MCV WAS MOVING EWD INTO SWRN PA AND SHOULD RESULT IN
STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPES RANGING
FROM 1500-2500 J/KG...COMBINED WITH 25-30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.

[Stephanie]

Didn't get anything on Thursday and Friday. Today and tomorrow we have a chance of thunderstorms, some severe. The air is so heavy with humidity right now. YUCK!

[Stephanie]

Tornado watch for NJ:

Tornado Watch
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 272
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM EDT SUN JUN 6 2010

TORNADO WATCH 272 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NJC001-003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-
037-039-041-070000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0272.100606T1510Z-100607T0000Z/

NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATLANTIC BERGEN BURLINGTON
CAMDEN ESSEX GLOUCESTER
HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER
MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS
OCEAN PASSAIC SOMERSET
SUSSEX UNION WARREN
$$

[angelwing]

We had tornado warnings in PA also, thankfully all we got was a little rain, plenty of winds all day but thankfully nothing else.

Think we dodged a bullet this time

[Category 5]

3-4 days of watches, and i didn't hear a single rumble of thunder. Now don't that beat all.

[lester]

we had some thunder and light rain yesterday and that was it