GOM Oil Spill - BP Stops Oil Leak

[vbhoutex]

Looks like another failure to me. They are still saying the same thing they always say-"It will take at least 48 hours to tell if this has worked."

[RL3AO]

Looks like another failure to me. They are still saying the same thing they always say-"It will take at least 48 hours to tell if this has worked."

If you put a lid on, and the oil is still coming out, it didn't work. No need to wait.

[Nate-Gillson]

Looks like another failure to me. They are still saying the same thing they always say-"It will take at least 48 hours to tell if this has worked."

All options have failed, only the relief well will be able to shut it. Until then, nothing we can do.

And yeah, the cap only made it worse, there's likely nearly 1 million gallons of oil coming out of it each day.

[Sanibel]

I wonder if it hydrated right up and clogged? That would be bad. They said they might still have some valves closed up-pipe but my guess is it clogged.



Some people said they could possibly pull the shear jaws open and free the drill pipe. Maybe it's time they at least tried to grab the drill pipe and pull it out. If they could do that maybe then could then get a new drill pipe into the wellbore and kill the well.

[IvanSurvivor]

Someone on Anderson Cooper was just saying the cap is set, but there is no pipe or line connected to take the oil to the surface.

[Sanibel]

Don't want to jump the gun. The pros are saying the oil is still leaking out because they haven't fully opened the cap up to full pressure. It isn't fully lowered and snug with the Blowout Preventer. Nor is the valve fully open. They are doing it scientifically to gauge how far they can go and how much pressure they can apply.


Stand by, it still might work. (Fingers crossed icon)


http://bp.concerts.com/gom/lmrp6_060310.htm

[Cyclenall]

BP is a global company with approximately 100,000 employees operating in over 100 countries. Not only that but what happens to the service companies they hire? The manufacturers who produce their platforms? Build their gas stations? You shut them down do you realize what is going to happen to the worlds economy? Where are they going to work? eat? live?

I have family (brother and nephew) that work offshore. They're mud engineers whose company is hired by BP. They know the risks of working on an offshore rig but that's their job and they do it. My husbands best friend from high school has worked for BP since 1980.

Yeah, it would be a large blow to the economy and cause it's own ripple effect but if the oil were to gush for years it's possible BP might go under anyways (at least some speculate) and that would be less ideal. If 100% of BP's assets aren't utilized now, it could be doomsday down the road for so many compared to a single large blow now. It's a very tough situation.

As for current progress, the live stream looked very odd at 11:00 pm EDT where there was an immense amount of oil gushing from the main valve (going 150 mph) and then all this billowing oil or something else coming from the bottom somewhere. I'm not sure what that is.

[Aquawind]

Computer models show Gulf oil reaching East Coast
Associated Press • June 3, 2010
6:46 P.M. — NEW ORLEANS — Computer models show oil leaking from a damaged well in the Gulf of Mexico could wind up on the East Coast and even get carried on currents across the Atlantic Ocean toward Europe.

The National Center for Atmospheric Research models showed Thursday that oil could enter the Gulf’s loop current, go around the tip of Florida and as far north as Cape Hatteras, N.C. According to researchers, oil could threaten East Coast beaches by early July, but they cautioned the models were not a forecast.

The oil could then head by Bermuda on its way to Europe.

Martin Visbeck, a research team member with the University of Kiel in Germany, says it is unlikely any oil reaching Europe would be thick enough to be harmful.

Link with graphic.. http://www.news-press.com/article/20100603/GREEN/100603056/1075/Computer-models-show-Gulf-oil-reaching-East-Coast

[Dencolo]

http://bp.concerts.com/gom/kentwellstec ... 053110.htm

This technical briefing is a few days old, but gets into the details of what's going on. Some things it does answer are:

- What needs to happen after the cap is in place (interesting graphic with methanol)

- What the current backup containment plans are

As you are aware, the diamond saw cut did not work. That would have created a nice fit for the cap and limited the leak. The new cut may have crimped the riser a bit so it won't capture quite as much. My optimistic estimate would be for this to capture 80% of the current leak. The remaining 20% spewing out for the next 10 weeks (until the relief well is done) would be the equivalent of full flow for 2 more weeks. About all I'm hoping for at this point.

[vbhoutex]

I just looked at the live feed again. The cap is definitely not working as intended. I've looked at the video of how it should work and it isn't. No jumping the gun here. NEXT!!

[jasons2k]

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN041 ... arketsNews

They are apparently funneling some of the oil now (only 10%) but hope to increase it to 90%. We'll see...

[thetruesms]

Link with graphic.. http://www.news-press.com/article/20100603/GREEN/100603056/1075/Computer-models-show-Gulf-oil-reaching-East-Coast

Oh man, NCAR is kind of embarrassing with that one. They create an ensemble, and then in their press release simply present the scariest ensemble member as a deterministic forecast. At least in their press release that their model is using passive dye, which means it will have the same density as water, rather than oil, and doesn't account for evaporation or weathering. The downside is it's becoming apparent that part isn't making it into the tiny blurbs that are being put out by the media (which should be completely expected). I know they're doing this on really short notice, but I know they could have done better than that.

[gtalum]

I just looked at the live feed again. The cap is definitely not working as intended. I've looked at the video of how it should work and it isn't. No jumping the gun here. NEXT!!

I don't think it will work, but to be fair it won't be evident to what level this is or isn't working for at least 24 hours. It takes a long time for a turbulent flow to fill a mile-long tube. Until the tube is full of flowing oil, it won't be obvious how much flow they can get through the system. By this it me tomorrow we'll know if it's working or not, and I'm guessing it won't be pulling more than a couple of thousand bpd out of the well.

They've made several errors that seem blatantly obvious from a basic fluid-dynamics standpoint. It's almost embarrassing how incompetent these guys are.

There is no real fix except the relief wells, and even those aren't as sure-fire as BP is making them out to be.

[Aquawind]

Link with graphic.. http://www.news-press.com/article/20100603/GREEN/100603056/1075/Computer-models-show-Gulf-oil-reaching-East-Coast

Oh man, NCAR is kind of embarrassing with that one. They create an ensemble, and then in their press release simply present the scariest ensemble member as a deterministic forecast. At least in their press release that their model is using passive dye, which means it will have the same density as water, rather than oil, and doesn't account for evaporation or weathering. The downside is it's becoming apparent that part isn't making it into the tiny blurbs that are being put out by the media (which should be completely expected). I know they're doing this on really short notice, but I know they could have done better than that.

Wow! That cetainly seems pretty serious flawed and yes worst case presentation of course..

[Aquawind]

Sure seems like while closing the vents their is more leakage. I would assume that means it's not containing and leaking from the bottom of the unit. Looks like they are still pumping methanol so they haven't given up yet.

I wonder at what point they are satisfied with the containing option and just wait until the relief wells finish.

[thetruesms]

Wow! That cetainly seems pretty serious flawed and yes worst case presentation of course..

You know, I'm less concerned with what you highlighted, as it does make the math a lot easier. What I don't like is how they don't emphasize it enough, and even more by ignoring the point of an ensemble by cherry picking one member, rather than presenting ensemble results. That's just sloppy at best, and blatant fearmongering at worst. I'm rather certain that they're being sloppy, but that you could make an argument for the latter possibility is a little sad, and definitely a signal that they need to be more rigorous in their releases.

[angelwing]

This was posted on my facebook

new pics:

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/0 ... e_oil.html

[Dencolo]

I just looked at the live feed again. The cap is definitely not working as intended. I've looked at the video of how it should work and it isn't. No jumping the gun here. NEXT!!

I don't think it will work, but to be fair it won't be evident to what level this is or isn't working for at least 24 hours. It takes a long time for a turbulent flow to fill a mile-long tube. Until the tube is full of flowing oil, it won't be obvious how much flow they can get through the system. By this it me tomorrow we'll know if it's working or not, and I'm guessing it won't be pulling more than a couple of thousand bpd out of the well.

They've made several errors that seem blatantly obvious from a basic fluid-dynamics standpoint. It's almost embarrassing how incompetent these guys are.

There is no real fix except the relief wells, and even those aren't as sure-fire as BP is making them out to be.

The pipe to surface should hold less than 500 bbls, and at current rates that will fill up in less than a few hours. They should have an idea by now how much is coming back, but with the closing of the vents the flow rate will be fluctuating as time goes on.

True, the relief wells will be the ultimate solution. But I'm a little baffled by the blatantly obvious errors. It's easy to judge in hindsight but I can't think of one of the methods used that was an obvious bad decision. The incompotence in my mind resulted in this catastrophe. But the nearly 1000 people working to engineer a solution have been brought in from around the world in both private and govt areas of expertise. These people are not incompetent. They are dealing with something that has never been attempted before in this environment. Those that think this is easy (and many people seem to think so) are mostly ignorant of the complexities of the situation. But if they truly have a solution, they need to get to the BP command center and help out!

[WeatherLovingDoc]

BP CEO Tony Hayward's out (on the day to day clean up/management, but in on the $$$ control).

BP US managing director, Robert Dudley is in: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jun/04/bp-deepwater-horizon-crisis-new-unit

Finally, abrasives/sand/oil worn flanges are visible in the live films, where before they had been hidden. Some are pointing at this as a decrease in oil/gas leakage with the new top instillation now over 24 hours ago (flanges are the white paint worn side pieces seen here:http://www.cnn.com/video/flashLive/live.html?stream=stream2&hpt=T2.

Looks like some progress hopefully in reduction of leak/gush/oil/gas into ocean. Fingers crossed.

[Sanibel]

I'm tending to side with the critics. I think they've miscalculated some serious flow dynamics and multiphase oil/gas flow behavior and the blast out the Preventer is hitting the top of the cap, turning around, and heading right back out the bottom of the Cap.

I'd like to see the pros answer why they can't try to pull the old drill pipe and insert a new one and kill the well? I think a bottom mud would get past all the alleged containment failures in the wellbore they are worried about.

An expert said his theory is the upper casing split during the blowout and got shoved into the Blowout Preventer and that's why the rams failed.