WPAC: Tropical Depression (94W)

[Chacor]

JMA 0600Z: LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 18N 110E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Typhoon10]

Yes, HK Observatory are saying its a northeast Monsoon. We are on the edge, but plenty of rain. Also quite cool at only 21c for this time of year

[Grifforzer]

WWJP25 RJTD 021200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 46N 151E
51N 157E 60N 176E 60N 180E 28N 180E 24N 160E 23N 150E 37N 150E 37N
145E 40N 145E 42N 143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 25N 142E ENE 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 17N 111E ESE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 37N 123E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 54N 149E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 42N 153E EAST SLOWLY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 19N 130E TO 21N 136E 25N 142E 27N 149E 28N 158E
31N 165E 35N 180E.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Grifforzer]

ABPW10 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/021500Z-030600ZJUN2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.3N 114.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST OF HAINAN ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FLARING
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
BENEATH A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALLOWING FOR LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). NEARBY OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING MEAN SEA LEVEL
PRESSURES OF 1005 TO 1007MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO LOW VWS AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[StormingB81]

almost looks like the last one. wonder if this one will have ay chance.

[Chacor]

JMA:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 19N 116E EAST SLOWLY.

JTWC:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.3N
114.2E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Chacor]

June 3, 1200 UTC by JMA standards, in the past decade:
2009: 2 named storms, both typhoons
2008: 5 named storms, 3 typhoons
2007: 2 named storms, both typhoons
2006: 1 named storm, Typhoon Chanchu
2005: 4 named storms, 2 typhoons
2004: 3 named storms, 2 typhoons
2003: 5 named storms, 2 typhoons
2002: 3 named storms, 2 typhoons
2001: 1 named storm, Severe Tropical Storm Cimaron
2000: 2 named storms, 1 typhoon

2006 was the last year in which at 1200 UTC on June 3, we had had only one named storm. 2006 ended up with 23 named storms, 15 of which were typhoons. 2006 also saw Severe Tropical Storm Bilis and Typhoon Saomai, both deadly storms.

2001 was the last year in which at 1200 UTC on June 3, we had had no typhoons. 2001 ended up with 26 named storms, 16 of which were typhoons. 2001 also saw the formation in December of Tropical Storm Vamei, which at the time was the closest-forming tropical cyclone to the equator until Cyclone Agni in 2004.

[Typhoon10]

And here we are on June 3 2010, no storms. Very quiet!

[P.K.]

18Z:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 20N 120E EAST 10 KT.

[KWT]

Yep certainly a slow start to the WPAC season, though as Chacor stats show, both the seasons as slow as this one picked up in the end with fairly decent numbers.

[StormingB81]

JMA has it as a depression. Wonder if it will amount to anything and where it may go

[StormingB81]

JMA has it as a depression. Wonder if it will amount to anything and where it may go

[Chacor]

The last year in which at this point we'd had nothing was 1998 (according to the JMA). The JMA's first analysed TS was TS Nichole (named by the JTWC back then), which formed as a TD on July 8. 1998 was a slow year, and ended up with 16 storms and 8 typhoons per the JMA.

Before that, the last two times June 4 had seen nothing were 1984 and 1983 — 8401 Vernon formed as a TD on June 7 and 8301 Sarah formed as a TD on June 24. JMA analysed 27 storms in 1984 and 23 in 1983. However, treating 1998 as an outlier, there's a general trend which suggests this amount of early-season activity doesn't lead to anything below-average, as 1983, 1984, 2001 and 2006 (the last four years except 1998 with around this level of activity) all produced at least 23 named storms.

[Chacor]

Looking at this from a different angle, the last four times storm #1 formed in March and did not reach typhoon strength:

1993: Severe Tropical Storm Irma. Peak: 50 kt. TD: March 9. TS: March 13. Number of March storms: 1. Season total: 28 storms, 16 typhoons

1991: Severe Tropical Storm Sharon. Peak: 50 kt. TD: March 5. TS: March 7. March storms: 2. Season total: 29 storms, 17 typhoons

1982: Severe Tropical Storm Mamie. Peak: 50 kt. TD: March 15. TS: March 16. March storms: 3. Season total: 25 storms, 18 typhoons

1977: Severe Tropical Storm Patsy. Peak: 50 kt. TD: March 27. TS: March 28. March storms: 1. Season total: 22 storms, 11 typhoons

Unfortunately, the JMA's best-track doesn't appear to provide winds for years from 1976 and before.

As you can see, all the years listed above (except 1977) were El Niño years. 1977 was an odd year worldwide, so it should probably be treated as an outlier.

[StormingB81]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looking at the radar I would say that looking at it it looks to me like nothing will come of this storm. I have been wrong before though.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 22N 124E EAST 10 KT.

[KWT]

The last year in which at this point we'd had nothing was 1998 (according to the JMA). The JMA's first analysed TS was TS Nichole (named by the JTWC back then), which formed as a TD on July 8. 1998 was a slow year, and ended up with 16 storms and 8 typhoons per the JMA.

Before that, the last two times June 4 had seen nothing were 1984 and 1983 — 8401 Vernon formed as a TD on June 7 and 8301 Sarah formed as a TD on June 24. JMA analysed 27 storms in 1984 and 23 in 1983. However, treating 1998 as an outlier, there's a general trend which suggests this amount of early-season activity doesn't lead to anything below-average, as 1983, 1984, 2001 and 2006 (the last four years except 1998 with around this level of activity) all produced at least 23 named storms.

Very interesting stats, with all that being said 1983 was off the back of a huge El nino and the 80s were generally rather warm in the Pacific anyway, esp the early 80s, 2006 was an El nino year which probably helped things ramp up, probably the closest match would be 1998 to what we have now though I'm not sure it'll be quite that slow.

Anyway probably won't get nothing else from this system though who knows!

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 22N 125E EAST 10 KT.

[KWT]

Not alot left there really Hurakan with just a few small convective bursts, got a long way to go really still.