For FL,TX & LA Residents

Suzi Q · #1 Postby **Suzi Q** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 6:21 am

Pulled from Skywarn this AM. Lots of variables, lots of "what ifs" IMO. And definitely something to stay tuned to. Any opinions ya'll?

LOW BREAKING OFF THE EAST COAST TROF WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE INTO TX THROUGH MIDWEEK. DIFFICULT FCST BEGINNING TONIGHT AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THE SMALL DETAILS THAT WILL MAKE A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE IN WHO RECEIVES PRECIP AND HOW MUCH. IN THE LLVLS...ALL THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE SFC HIGH DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO AT LEAST NRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TX. MOST ALSO AGREE THAT A COASTAL TROF WILL DEVELOP TUES...LEADING TO HIGHER POPS NEAR THE COAST VS. WELL
INLAND. BUT...AVN & ECMWF DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE TROF AND TAKE IT INTO LOUISIANA BRINGING THE BETTER POPS/QPF WITH IT WED. ETA & CANADIAN BOTH KEEP AN OPEN TROF AND SWING IT INLAND ON WED AS THE MID LEVEL TROF MOVES FURTHER WEST.

CONFIDENCE ISN'T ALL THAT HIGH BUT WILL TREND FCST MORE IN LINE WITH THE WETTER ETA/CANADIAN SOLN RIGHT NOW...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS TO MANY PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED AS GULF BECOMES WIDE OPEN BEING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LVL TROF AXIS.

ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REPLACE THE H5 TROF TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A TROPICAL WAVE FCST TO MOVE THRU THE FL STRAITS AND PLACED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH...

Steve H. · #2 Postby **Steve H.** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 6:31 am

Yeah this could be a south Florida/Frorida Straits type of system. I'm not letting my guard down in central Florida yet, but it looks like the deflector shield is starting to work, and SHOULD keep this system south of the area. Close one. Cheers!! :wink:

Rainband · #3 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 8:50 am

We will have to wait and see what happens..I am not concerned yet!!! :wink:

Guest · #4 Postby **Guest** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 9:12 am

Everyone should be at least keeping an eye on it. Being complacent will catch you off guard. I'm being honest and keeping an eye on it.

#5 Postby **bfez1** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 9:17 am

I will definitely keep an eye on this system. Don't ever want to have my guard down.
Like the old cliche', "an oz of prevention is worth a pound of cure."

Rainband · #6 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 9:25 am

Ok!! I will keep an "Unconcerned eye on it" :lol:

Amanzi · #7 Postby **Amanzi** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 9:42 am

I am just giving it the sideways glance Rainband.. you know the ol eye shift now and again... LOL

Rainband · #8 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 9:48 am

Amanzi wrote:I am just giving it the sideways glance Rainband.. you know the ol eye shift now and again... LOL

LOL I like that one BRON!!! :wink:

southerngale · #9 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 12:23 pm

Yeah Bron...maybe I can keep tabs on it with my peripheral vision. :roll:

PTrackerLA · #10 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 1:12 pm

Something to watch but will most likely be just a rain maker. We could use a good soaking or two down here after about 2 weeks of little to no rain and high heat!

Amanzi · #11 Postby **Amanzi** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 1:20 pm

LOL well PT you can have it!!!

If we get anymore rain here, I may just start building myself and ark and call the animals two by two.. on the serious side.. Florida does NOT need anymore rain, the poor folks on the west central part are under flood watches and warnings already, I would hate to imagine what would happen if a TC had to come our way!

Rainband · #12 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 2:01 pm

Amanzi wrote:LOL well PT you can have it!!!

If we get anymore rain here, I may just start building myself and ark and call the animals two by two.. on the serious side.. Florida does NOT need anymore rain, the poor folks on the west central part are under flood watches and warnings already, I would hate to imagine what would happen if a TC had to come our way!

Would be a scary scenario!!!! to say the least!!

ColdFront77 · #13 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 3:22 pm

Generally we like to experience weather as weather enthusiasts even if areas that don't need anymore rainfall, how else can we have action to follow and our interest continue with a current event?

Of course we don't want lose of property and even lives in flood waters.

slosh · #14 Postby **slosh** » Mon Aug 11, 2003 3:55 pm

ColdFront77, I totally agree with you.

For me, it is always a fine line between being caught up in the excitement of a system and realizing in the back of my mind that people lives are going to be affected emotionally and economically. Whether we want a system to track to a specific area or not, there is nothing we can do about it. We might as well forecast, predict and study to satisfy our own curiosities.

For FL,TX & LA Residents

For FL,TX & LA Residents

Who is online