Hartford now under the gun...really intense couplet in central Connecticut.
WFUS51 KBOX 061913
TORBOX
CTC003-062000-
/O.NEW.KBOX.TO.W.0001.100606T1913Z-100606T2000Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
313 PM EDT SUN JUN 6 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HARTFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINDSOR LOCKS...WEST HARTFORD...
HARTFORD...EAST HARTFORD...BRISTOL...
* UNTIL 400 PM EDT
* AT 309 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
BURLINGTON...OR NEAR BRISTOL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...CANTON...FARMINGTON...
AVON...SIMSBURY...BLOOMFIELD...EAST GRANBY...WINDSOR...SOUTH
WINDSOR...EAST WINDSOR AND ENFIELD.
WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS A
TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SHORTLY. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR
OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE
OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND.
&&
LAT...LON 4181 7296 4183 7294 4184 7295 4200 7254
4179 7252 4163 7296 4164 7297 4170 7301
4171 7300 4177 7302 4180 7302
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 245DEG 50KT 4176 7289
$$
FRANK
Moderate Risk Severe Weather - June 2010
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Dave
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June 5 - 6 2010: MILLBURY, Ohio -- Tornadoes and thunderstorms swept through the Midwest overnight, destroying dozens of homes and upending school buses and police cars in one miles-long trail of destruction in Ohio, and ripping off siding on a nuclear plant in Michigan. At least five people died in Ohio, including a child, authorities said.
Rescue officials in northwest Ohio were still searching through homes Sunday and couldn't say whether anyone else was missing, Lake Township Fire Chief Todd Walters said. Police Chief Mark Hummer flew over the damaged area and said at least 50 homes were destroyed and another 50 severely damaged, as well as six commercial buildings. He estimated a 7-mile path of destruction about 100 yards wide. The storm that hit around 11 p.m. Saturday fell over an area of farm fields and light industry, narrowly missing the heavily populated suburbs on the southern edge of Toledo.
"It's a war zone," Hummer said. "It's pretty disheartening."
Hummer said that among those killed were a person outside the police department and a motorist. He said a young child and two other victims were from nearby Millbury, a bedroom community of roughly 1,200 about 10 miles southeast of Toledo. The National Weather Service had confirmed Sunday afternoon that a Toledo-area tornado was part of the storm, said Meteorologist Marty Mullen of the service's Cleveland office.
A township police and emergency medical services building looked to be a total loss. The storm ripped off most of the building's back half, tossing a car into where the building once stood, now a mishmash of 2-by-4 framing and pink insulation strewn about. At least four of the township's police vehicles were destroyed. The lawn surrounding the station was littered with tree limbs and branches, and a portion of the metal roof wrapped around one of trees.
Hummer was talking to a police dispatcher by phone when the storm hit.
"She started saying, 'The building is shaking,' and then another dispatcher came on and said the roof just blew off," he said.
The storm knocked out emergency services for a short time, and all the emergency dispatchers and 911 operators had to be moved to a nearby town.
"When the people who are supposed to help you are victims of the storm, it does take you a minute to catch your breath," Hummer said.
Damage stretched from Illinois toward Pennsylvania and north into Michigan, and more wind, scattered rain and cooler temperatures were expected Sunday.
In southeastern Michigan, severe storms and high winds ripped siding off a building at the Fermi 2 nuclear plant, causing it to shut down automatically, said Dan Smith, the public information officer for Monroe County. Investigators were inspecting the nuclear plant on the shore of Lake Erie on Sunday morning, and the plant was expected to go back into operation, Smith said.
About 35,000 people were without power but it wasn't clear whether that was directly related to the nuclear plant's shutdown or because of damage to power lines in the area, he said.
Eleven people with minor injuries were taken to hospitals from Dundee, Mich., where the weather service was looking into reports of a tornado touching down.
More than a dozen people were injured in Dwight, Ill., where about 40 mobile homes and 10 other homes were destroyed, Illinois Emergency Management Agency spokeswoman Patti Thompson said, and multiple tornadoes were reported in the state.
In Elmwood, Ill., about 30 miles west of Peoria, the roof collapsed on a movie theater where 150 to 200 people had been evacuated to the basement, state Trooper Dustin Pierce said. No one was injured.
The storms left a trail of damaged homes in northern Indiana and a tornado sighting was reported, but no one was injured.
In northwest Ohio, a basement washer and dryer were all that held up one teetering Millbury home that was pushed 5 feet off its foundation. Truck driver Carl Gooden, 54, said his family also lost two garages and five vehicles, including his son's pickup truck that had a tree limb jammed into the driver seat.
Gooden said he, his wife and his 34-year-old son were sitting on the porch when they heard a roar and ran for the bathroom.
Wind tore off most of the home's roof and ripped open the north side of house, exposing a bedroom and a closet where sweat shirts and dresses were still on their hangers. In the front yard, a sliver of aluminum siding from a neighbor's barn was wrapped around a teetering telephone pole.
The front yard was littered with decades of memories: a Loretta Lynn album, a porcelain lamp and a green golf bag were among the recognizable items.
"My heart sinks," Gooden said. "I worked a lifetime for all this."
He said he'd like to go in the home to retrieve items such as his wife's jewelry or his NASCAR collectibles, but that it was too unsteady.
"It's not worth dying for," he said.
Lake High School was also among the hardest hit buildings. Dozens of windows were broken at the school, and the roof and a back wall were ripped off a gymnasium, hours before the graduation ceremony was scheduled to take place there.
Two buses were tossed on their sides and another was thrown about 50 yards, landing on its top near the high school's football field, its right turn signal still blinking more than 10 hours later.
"I don't think many people care we aren't graduating today," student Tess Steedman said Sunday morning as she held onto her boyfriend's arm.
She said it's easy to forget the disappointment when hearing about other damage.
"You hear about friends who have lost their houses," she said.
Courtnee Cowell, who will be a sophomore in the fall, plays basketball and was most upset to see the gymnasium knocked apart.
"The school's been here forever," she said. "It's touched a lot of generations."
Also a member of the choir, Cowell said she woke up Sunday to find sheets of choir music from the school in her driveway, about four miles away.
Carol Smith, of Toledo, whose grandson will be a senior in the fall, called the destruction "terrible."
"But praise the Lord, it could've been worse," she said. "At least there was no one inside."
Copyright 2010 by The Associated Press.
Rescue officials in northwest Ohio were still searching through homes Sunday and couldn't say whether anyone else was missing, Lake Township Fire Chief Todd Walters said. Police Chief Mark Hummer flew over the damaged area and said at least 50 homes were destroyed and another 50 severely damaged, as well as six commercial buildings. He estimated a 7-mile path of destruction about 100 yards wide. The storm that hit around 11 p.m. Saturday fell over an area of farm fields and light industry, narrowly missing the heavily populated suburbs on the southern edge of Toledo.
"It's a war zone," Hummer said. "It's pretty disheartening."
Hummer said that among those killed were a person outside the police department and a motorist. He said a young child and two other victims were from nearby Millbury, a bedroom community of roughly 1,200 about 10 miles southeast of Toledo. The National Weather Service had confirmed Sunday afternoon that a Toledo-area tornado was part of the storm, said Meteorologist Marty Mullen of the service's Cleveland office.
A township police and emergency medical services building looked to be a total loss. The storm ripped off most of the building's back half, tossing a car into where the building once stood, now a mishmash of 2-by-4 framing and pink insulation strewn about. At least four of the township's police vehicles were destroyed. The lawn surrounding the station was littered with tree limbs and branches, and a portion of the metal roof wrapped around one of trees.
Hummer was talking to a police dispatcher by phone when the storm hit.
"She started saying, 'The building is shaking,' and then another dispatcher came on and said the roof just blew off," he said.
The storm knocked out emergency services for a short time, and all the emergency dispatchers and 911 operators had to be moved to a nearby town.
"When the people who are supposed to help you are victims of the storm, it does take you a minute to catch your breath," Hummer said.
Damage stretched from Illinois toward Pennsylvania and north into Michigan, and more wind, scattered rain and cooler temperatures were expected Sunday.
In southeastern Michigan, severe storms and high winds ripped siding off a building at the Fermi 2 nuclear plant, causing it to shut down automatically, said Dan Smith, the public information officer for Monroe County. Investigators were inspecting the nuclear plant on the shore of Lake Erie on Sunday morning, and the plant was expected to go back into operation, Smith said.
About 35,000 people were without power but it wasn't clear whether that was directly related to the nuclear plant's shutdown or because of damage to power lines in the area, he said.
Eleven people with minor injuries were taken to hospitals from Dundee, Mich., where the weather service was looking into reports of a tornado touching down.
More than a dozen people were injured in Dwight, Ill., where about 40 mobile homes and 10 other homes were destroyed, Illinois Emergency Management Agency spokeswoman Patti Thompson said, and multiple tornadoes were reported in the state.
In Elmwood, Ill., about 30 miles west of Peoria, the roof collapsed on a movie theater where 150 to 200 people had been evacuated to the basement, state Trooper Dustin Pierce said. No one was injured.
The storms left a trail of damaged homes in northern Indiana and a tornado sighting was reported, but no one was injured.
In northwest Ohio, a basement washer and dryer were all that held up one teetering Millbury home that was pushed 5 feet off its foundation. Truck driver Carl Gooden, 54, said his family also lost two garages and five vehicles, including his son's pickup truck that had a tree limb jammed into the driver seat.
Gooden said he, his wife and his 34-year-old son were sitting on the porch when they heard a roar and ran for the bathroom.
Wind tore off most of the home's roof and ripped open the north side of house, exposing a bedroom and a closet where sweat shirts and dresses were still on their hangers. In the front yard, a sliver of aluminum siding from a neighbor's barn was wrapped around a teetering telephone pole.
The front yard was littered with decades of memories: a Loretta Lynn album, a porcelain lamp and a green golf bag were among the recognizable items.
"My heart sinks," Gooden said. "I worked a lifetime for all this."
He said he'd like to go in the home to retrieve items such as his wife's jewelry or his NASCAR collectibles, but that it was too unsteady.
"It's not worth dying for," he said.
Lake High School was also among the hardest hit buildings. Dozens of windows were broken at the school, and the roof and a back wall were ripped off a gymnasium, hours before the graduation ceremony was scheduled to take place there.
Two buses were tossed on their sides and another was thrown about 50 yards, landing on its top near the high school's football field, its right turn signal still blinking more than 10 hours later.
"I don't think many people care we aren't graduating today," student Tess Steedman said Sunday morning as she held onto her boyfriend's arm.
She said it's easy to forget the disappointment when hearing about other damage.
"You hear about friends who have lost their houses," she said.
Courtnee Cowell, who will be a sophomore in the fall, plays basketball and was most upset to see the gymnasium knocked apart.
"The school's been here forever," she said. "It's touched a lot of generations."
Also a member of the choir, Cowell said she woke up Sunday to find sheets of choir music from the school in her driveway, about four miles away.
Carol Smith, of Toledo, whose grandson will be a senior in the fall, called the destruction "terrible."
"But praise the Lord, it could've been worse," she said. "At least there was no one inside."
Copyright 2010 by The Associated Press.
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Stephanie
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23843
- Age: 62
- Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:53 am
- Location: Glassboro, NJ
Re: Moderate Risk Severe Weather - June 2010
The front's coming through now and just a few sprinkles. Dopplar isn't showing anything heavy or severe through New Jersey, Eastern PA or Delaware.
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
Preliminary Report for Tornado Touchdown in Wood and Ottawa Counties (Ohio)
EF3 or Greater...
A tornado with a rating of EF3 or Greater first touched down near I-80 and Oregon Road (East of Perrysburg) at 11:15 PM EDT and then moved through the south side of Moline and then near Metcalf Airport. The tornado then crossed the northwest side of Millbury into Ottaway County following Trowbridge Road and lifted at 11:30 PM EDT just west of Clay Center. At least 50 buildings were damaged or destroyed.
County: Wood and Ottawa
Location: East of Perrysburg to just west of Clay Center
Begin Time: 11:15 PM EDT
End Time: 11:30 PM EDT
EF Scale EF3 or Greater
Wind Speed 136-165 MPH or Greater
Max. Path Width 200-300 yards
Path Length 8 to 10 miles
Fatalities: 7
Injuries: Several
The storm report information is preliminary and subject to change pending final review and publication in NWS StormData.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/cle/wx_event ... oledo.html
EF3 or Greater...
A tornado with a rating of EF3 or Greater first touched down near I-80 and Oregon Road (East of Perrysburg) at 11:15 PM EDT and then moved through the south side of Moline and then near Metcalf Airport. The tornado then crossed the northwest side of Millbury into Ottaway County following Trowbridge Road and lifted at 11:30 PM EDT just west of Clay Center. At least 50 buildings were damaged or destroyed.
County: Wood and Ottawa
Location: East of Perrysburg to just west of Clay Center
Begin Time: 11:15 PM EDT
End Time: 11:30 PM EDT
EF Scale EF3 or Greater
Wind Speed 136-165 MPH or Greater
Max. Path Width 200-300 yards
Path Length 8 to 10 miles
Fatalities: 7
Injuries: Several
The storm report information is preliminary and subject to change pending final review and publication in NWS StormData.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/cle/wx_event ... oledo.html
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
Day 1 Convective Outlook - June 8 2010
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT TUE JUN 08 2010
VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLNS INTO THE
MID MS VLY AND LWR OH VLYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN THE LARGELY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE NATION...
IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE NRN RCKYS WILL PHASE WITH NRN STREAM
DISTURBANCE NOW IN SRN SK/MB. THE COMBINED SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE INTO
AN UPR LOW THAT SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR SRN LK WINNIPEG THIS
EVE...AND WILL MOVE E INTO W CNTRL ONT BY 12Z WED. FARTHER S...UPR
LOW WILL LINGER OVER S CNTRL TX.
AT THE SFC...THE MAIN FEATURES OF NOTE WILL BE LOW NOW OVER NW KS
...AND ATTENDANT WARM AND COLD FRONTS RESPECTIVELY EXTENDING SEWD
AND WSWWD FROM IT. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE ENE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...REACHING SRN IA THIS EVE...AND NRN IND EARLY WED. AT THE
SAME TIME...ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK E FROM SRN MB INTO SRN ONT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT.
...CNTRL/ERN KS TO MID MS/LWR OH VLYS...
OVERNIGHT MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS NRN PART
CONTINUES ESE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN IA/NRN MO...AND SW PART
DROPS SSE ACROSS KS INTO NRN OK. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY
THIS MCS...AND AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH KS SFC
LOW...LIKELY WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCI FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
PERIOD.
BROADENING/STRENGTHENING OF SWLY LLJ IN THE PAST 24 HRS HAS ALLOWED
FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE /PW AROUND 1.8 INCHES/ TO SPREAD N INTO WARM
SECTOR OF KS SFC LOW. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ENE INTO THE MID MS
VLY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS SFC LOW TRACKS ENEWD.
LOW AMPLITUDE WSW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW EML TO MOVE ENE ATOP WARM SECTOR
TODAY...REACHING VICINITY OF SFC WARM FRONT OVER CNTRL IL BY LATE
AFTN. GIVEN THIS SETUP...SFC HEATING SHOULD BOOST SBCAPE TO NEAR
3000 J/KG OVER CNTRL/ERN KS...AND TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER CNTRL/NRN
MO AND WRN IL.
ELEVATED TSTMS MAY PERSIST FOR SOME TIME TODAY IN WAA ZONE ATOP
OVERNIGHT OUTFLOW IN NRN MO AND SRN IA. BUT SFC-BASED TSTMS SHOULD
FORM BY LATE AFTN NEAR SFC LOW OVER NE KS/NW MO...WITH SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY A BIT LATER SWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO S CNTRL KS.
STORM COVERAGE ALSO SHOULD INCREASE EWD ACROSS MO INTO WRN
IL...NEAR/ALONG WARM FRONT...WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY BECOMING
NEARLY SFC-BASED BY EARLY EVE ON NOSE OF 40 KT SWLY LLJ.
40-45 KT WLY MID LVL FLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE
WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. COUPLED WITH HIGH
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...ASSOCIATED BOWING SEGMENTS WILL LIKELY YIELD
DMGG WIND AND HAIL. TORNADOES ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
NEAR SFC WAVE AND ON WRN SIDE OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BUBBLE FROM
OVERNIGHT MCS. ATTM THIS CORRIDOR WOULD APPEAR TO EXTEND FROM NRN
MO INTO W CNTRL IL LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF UPR TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VEERING/STRENGTHENING OF LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS THROUGH EARLY WED. WIND PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT BOTH
FORWARD PROPAGATION /WITH AN ATTENDANT SVR WIND THREAT/ INTO THE LWR
OH VLY...AND REGENERATIVE/EPISODIC BACK-BUILDING ACTIVITY /WITH A
THREAT FOR ISOLD WIND AND HAIL/ WWD ACROSS THE NRN OZARKS INTO SRN
KS.
...CNTRL HI PLNS INTO WRN/SRN KS...
TSTMS SHOULD ALSO FORM BY LATE IN THE DAY IN DEVELOPING POST-FRONTAL
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE ERN CO FOOTHILLS. EXPECTED COMBINATION OF LOW
LVL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT SBCAPE UP
TO 1000 J/KG...WITH 40-50 KT WLY 500 MB FLOW FAVORING SUPERCELLS.
THESE COULD YIELD LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DMGG WIND. WHILE
TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR...ATTM IT APPEARS THAT LOW LVL WIND
PROFILES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE GIVEN RELATIVELY RECENT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PERSISTENT POST-FRONTAL LOW-LVL ELY FLOW...AND NOCTURNALLY-ENHANCED
SSWLY LLJ ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE...SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE CO
STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX OR TWO. THESE SHOULD TRACK
GENERALLY E OR ESE INTO WRN KS AND PERHAPS NW OK...WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
...ND/NERN SD/NWRN MN...
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW
STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AS NRN PART OF
AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH MOVES E ACROSS REGION. SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR
WILL BE PRESENT FOR SCTD SUSTAINED STORMS WITH HAIL.
...S TX AND MIDDLE TX GULF CSTL PLN THROUGH EARLY WED...
BANDS/SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF SRN AND S
CNTRL TX THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN NE QUADRANT OF QSTNRY UPR LOW.
COMBINATION OF HIGH PW /AROUND 2 INCHES/ WITH ENHANCED/SLIGHTLY
BACKED LOW LVL FLOW MAY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL LOW-LVL ROTATION...AND
THE RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO. THIS THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE
GREATEST ALONG THE MIDDLE TX GULF CSTL PLN THIS AFTN...AND PERHAPS
OVER THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.
..CORFIDI/STOPPKOTTE.. 06/08/2010
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT TUE JUN 08 2010
VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLNS INTO THE
MID MS VLY AND LWR OH VLYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN THE LARGELY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE NATION...
IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE NRN RCKYS WILL PHASE WITH NRN STREAM
DISTURBANCE NOW IN SRN SK/MB. THE COMBINED SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE INTO
AN UPR LOW THAT SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR SRN LK WINNIPEG THIS
EVE...AND WILL MOVE E INTO W CNTRL ONT BY 12Z WED. FARTHER S...UPR
LOW WILL LINGER OVER S CNTRL TX.
AT THE SFC...THE MAIN FEATURES OF NOTE WILL BE LOW NOW OVER NW KS
...AND ATTENDANT WARM AND COLD FRONTS RESPECTIVELY EXTENDING SEWD
AND WSWWD FROM IT. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE ENE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...REACHING SRN IA THIS EVE...AND NRN IND EARLY WED. AT THE
SAME TIME...ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK E FROM SRN MB INTO SRN ONT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT.
...CNTRL/ERN KS TO MID MS/LWR OH VLYS...
OVERNIGHT MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS NRN PART
CONTINUES ESE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN IA/NRN MO...AND SW PART
DROPS SSE ACROSS KS INTO NRN OK. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY
THIS MCS...AND AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH KS SFC
LOW...LIKELY WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCI FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
PERIOD.
BROADENING/STRENGTHENING OF SWLY LLJ IN THE PAST 24 HRS HAS ALLOWED
FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE /PW AROUND 1.8 INCHES/ TO SPREAD N INTO WARM
SECTOR OF KS SFC LOW. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ENE INTO THE MID MS
VLY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS SFC LOW TRACKS ENEWD.
LOW AMPLITUDE WSW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW EML TO MOVE ENE ATOP WARM SECTOR
TODAY...REACHING VICINITY OF SFC WARM FRONT OVER CNTRL IL BY LATE
AFTN. GIVEN THIS SETUP...SFC HEATING SHOULD BOOST SBCAPE TO NEAR
3000 J/KG OVER CNTRL/ERN KS...AND TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER CNTRL/NRN
MO AND WRN IL.
ELEVATED TSTMS MAY PERSIST FOR SOME TIME TODAY IN WAA ZONE ATOP
OVERNIGHT OUTFLOW IN NRN MO AND SRN IA. BUT SFC-BASED TSTMS SHOULD
FORM BY LATE AFTN NEAR SFC LOW OVER NE KS/NW MO...WITH SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY A BIT LATER SWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO S CNTRL KS.
STORM COVERAGE ALSO SHOULD INCREASE EWD ACROSS MO INTO WRN
IL...NEAR/ALONG WARM FRONT...WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY BECOMING
NEARLY SFC-BASED BY EARLY EVE ON NOSE OF 40 KT SWLY LLJ.
40-45 KT WLY MID LVL FLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE
WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. COUPLED WITH HIGH
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...ASSOCIATED BOWING SEGMENTS WILL LIKELY YIELD
DMGG WIND AND HAIL. TORNADOES ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
NEAR SFC WAVE AND ON WRN SIDE OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BUBBLE FROM
OVERNIGHT MCS. ATTM THIS CORRIDOR WOULD APPEAR TO EXTEND FROM NRN
MO INTO W CNTRL IL LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF UPR TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VEERING/STRENGTHENING OF LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS THROUGH EARLY WED. WIND PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT BOTH
FORWARD PROPAGATION /WITH AN ATTENDANT SVR WIND THREAT/ INTO THE LWR
OH VLY...AND REGENERATIVE/EPISODIC BACK-BUILDING ACTIVITY /WITH A
THREAT FOR ISOLD WIND AND HAIL/ WWD ACROSS THE NRN OZARKS INTO SRN
KS.
...CNTRL HI PLNS INTO WRN/SRN KS...
TSTMS SHOULD ALSO FORM BY LATE IN THE DAY IN DEVELOPING POST-FRONTAL
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE ERN CO FOOTHILLS. EXPECTED COMBINATION OF LOW
LVL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT SBCAPE UP
TO 1000 J/KG...WITH 40-50 KT WLY 500 MB FLOW FAVORING SUPERCELLS.
THESE COULD YIELD LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DMGG WIND. WHILE
TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR...ATTM IT APPEARS THAT LOW LVL WIND
PROFILES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE GIVEN RELATIVELY RECENT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PERSISTENT POST-FRONTAL LOW-LVL ELY FLOW...AND NOCTURNALLY-ENHANCED
SSWLY LLJ ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE...SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE CO
STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX OR TWO. THESE SHOULD TRACK
GENERALLY E OR ESE INTO WRN KS AND PERHAPS NW OK...WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
...ND/NERN SD/NWRN MN...
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST A FEW
STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AS NRN PART OF
AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH MOVES E ACROSS REGION. SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR
WILL BE PRESENT FOR SCTD SUSTAINED STORMS WITH HAIL.
...S TX AND MIDDLE TX GULF CSTL PLN THROUGH EARLY WED...
BANDS/SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF SRN AND S
CNTRL TX THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN NE QUADRANT OF QSTNRY UPR LOW.
COMBINATION OF HIGH PW /AROUND 2 INCHES/ WITH ENHANCED/SLIGHTLY
BACKED LOW LVL FLOW MAY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL LOW-LVL ROTATION...AND
THE RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO. THIS THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE
GREATEST ALONG THE MIDDLE TX GULF CSTL PLN THIS AFTN...AND PERHAPS
OVER THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.
..CORFIDI/STOPPKOTTE.. 06/08/2010
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