SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[southerngale]

I got some potent thunderstorm cells overnight, but all is quiet now. Tornado watch!

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1059 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

TXZ177-199-212-100000-
/O.EXA.KHGX.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-100610T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTGOMERY-WALKER-WALLER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROOKSHIRE...CONROE...HEMPSTEAD...
HUNTSVILLE...PRAIRIE VIEW...THE WOODLANDS...WILLIS
1059 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS EXPANDED
THE

* FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...MONTGOMERY...WALKER AND
WALLER.

* UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING

* SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THESE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

* WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
CROCKETT TO NAVASOTA TO COLUMBUS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

[vbhoutex]

i see alot of flooding in the future for areas between bryan and Waco. Also, a storm at the bottom of this complex of storms running along I-10 is beginning to show a bowing effect or maybe a little rotation on doppler. Any steering winds which can push this low out of here?

The ULL is expected to lift slowly NE to ENE through tomorrow so we won't see relief quickly. with a Whort wave moving in from the SW along with the MCS that plagued C TX last night moving E along I-10 it appears we could be in for another round of heavy rain in the metro area this afternoon. Hopefully we won't get the flooding rains they got in C TX last night.

[jasons2k]

New MD:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0867.html

[JenBayles]

Here we go. After yesterday's rains, my area is nicely saturated. Not looking forward to this system's arrival at all, and liking even less the rainfall amounts dropping from it. Has anyone heard from Jeff today?

[CajunMama]

"SE TX/SW LA weather:Low bringing wet and cooler weather"
WRONG!!!!!!!!!!! Well at least not here in sc la. It's 88 out there with a heat index of 99. And we're forecasted to be 93-95F the rest of this week.

[jasons2k]

Here we go. After yesterday's rains, my area is nicely saturated. Not looking forward to this system's arrival at all, and liking even less the rainfall amounts dropping from it. Has anyone heard from Jeff today?

I did get updates from Jeff early this AM but they are essentially out of date by now -- basically the upper low will move slowly NE today towards NE Texas and another core event is possible tonight, mostly north of our region though.

I'll take every drop I can get (up to a point). We're still running a rainfall deficit and most areas only got .25 - .50 yesterday....

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1246 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1244 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR DOBBIN... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
DACUS...MONTGOMERY AND MAGNOLIA.

[vbhoutex]

I was able to find that possible tornado on the radar. If it was one it was weak with max winds around 96 mph indicated. Hopefully it never touched down.

This is Jeff's earliest email this am. There have been others about the FF and TW but this one is the most extensive about the weather expected. Seems to be right on the money so far.

Flash Flood Watch has been issued until 600pm this evening or the following counties: Houston, Madison, Grimes, Brazos, Washington, Austin, Colorado.

Core rainfall event in progress along I-35 this morning between Austin and San Antonio. Impressive 8-10 inches of rainfall overnight over Wilson County in central TX with widespread 3-5 inches. The result is widespread flash flooding along I-35 from NE of San Antonio into metro Austin. Warm core tropical feature is currently located near San Marcos moving ENE slowly. Within the last few hours thunderstorms producing 2-4 inches of rain per hour have developed from N of College Station to near Bastrop. Slow storm motions and excessive rainfall rates could get locations within the Flash Flood Watch area into problems quickly this morning and will have to watch and see how this expands south and eastward later this morning.

Tropical low will move slowly ENE to NE today and skirt across our northern counties. Impressive moisture continues to stream northward out of the Gulf of Mexico with PWS running 2.1-2.3 inches across the area or 150% above early June normals. A touch of heating this morning combined with the incoming lift from the low along I-35 will result in widespread development across nearly the entire region. The exception may be around Matagorda Bay where slightly drier air mass and increasing capping may result in more isolated development.

Potential looks good for another core rain event tonight over N or E TX. Our northern counties could be on the southern edge of such an event, so it seems a good idea to keep high rain chances in for these locations.

Being on the east side of this feature does promote the threat for isolated weak tornadoes as one would expect with a weakening tropical cyclone in the eastern feeder bands. There has thus far been a lack of banding, but isolated cells did produce a tornado yesterday in Baytown and radar data this morning shows a few cells over Fort Bend and SE Harris trying to hook…so a marginal threat for weak short lived tornadoes does exist.

Low should shear out on Friday with the approach of a trough into the western US. This trough will allow a building sub-tropical high to push into the TX coast from the east reducing rain chances to our more typical summertime seabreeze type during the afternoon hours.

[jasons2k]

Here is another update from Jeff (below).

My concern is that it looks like the outflow/cold pool boundry is reaching the Houston Metro area now and it runs parallel to the track of the low. Could be a setup for some training storms this afternoon along the boundry. That's my $.02 and here is the "official" word from Jeff:

Excessive rainfall continues to pound areas from Huntsville to near Columbus and NW to Waco.

Doppler radar indicates widespread 3-6 inches have fallen with isolated totals of 8-10 inches over Burleson County. Flash flooding is ongoing over portions of Brazos, Burleson, Washington and Grimes counties.

Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include Waller, Montgomery, and Walker Counties.

Tropical low spinning away E of Austin at this hour with widespread heavy rains surrounding this system. Slight mid level drying has recently allowed more downdraft activity within cells helping o generate a larger surface cold pool and slow E to ESE transition of the main southern flank of convection. Very moist Gulf inflow of upper 70’s degree dewpoints and strong heating along the coast will help maintain a very unstable air mass feeding this complex into the afternoon hours. There is some indication that the SW flank along I-10 may be stalling while the cold pool surges eastward over Waller into Montgomery counties.

The threat for flooding and flash flooding will continue for several hours over the NW 1/3rd of SE TX with Austin, Waller, Montgomery, and Waller counties gradually coming under the influence of the heavier rains. Not sure how much further southward this band will work before it begins to weaken late this afternoon. I am surprised there has been very limited development to none feeding into this system. Increased low level flow off the Gulf has stunted any developing seabreeze boundary.

Rainfall rate of 4.0 inches in 50 minutes was recorded this morning in Seguin, TX.

Hydro:
Severe flash flood event in progress along the Guadalupe River from New Braunfels to Gonzales. Evacuations of camp sites, parks, and residential homes are in progress around Seguin.

At Seguin, the river rose nearly 19ft reaching flood stage around 1030am and now is at 22.5 ft at 11:25 am. The river is continuing a very rapid rise and should crest near 32 feet this afternoon. At levels of 32.0 ft homes in the floodplain are ripped from their foundations with many homes flooded to the rooftops. Recreational camps along the river are flooded and destroyed. All of Treasure Island and Lake McQueeny are inundated with fast moving flood water.

Forecast rise at Gonzales to 38.5 ft Thursday afternoon (Flood Stage is 13.4 ft). At 40.0 ft water overtops the Hwy 183 bridges closing it to traffic. Portions of the City park are flooded with up to 9 ft of flood water.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
154 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 148 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH
FLOODING WAS OCCURRING FROM A THUNDERSTORM NEAR COLLEGE STATION.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS WERE REPORTING WATER COVERED ROADS
AND WATER IN HOMES IN AND AROUND THE COLLEGE STATION AREA. WATER
COVERED ROADS STILL PLAGUE PARTS OF BURLESON COUNTY. ALTHOUGH RAIN
HAS DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE...FLOOD WATERS WILL
BE SLOW TO RECEDE...THUS THE FLOOD WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE FLOOD WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WELLBORN...QUARRY...NORTH ZULCH...MILLICAN...LAKE SOMERVILLE DAM...
KURTEN...INDEPENDENCE...IOLA...CHRIESMAN...CARLOS...BEDIAS...WIXON
VALLEY...SOMERVILLE...SNOOK...MIDWAY...MADISONVILLE...CALDWELL...
BURTON AND BRYAN.

[jasons2k]

It's a little amazing/perplexing to me that we are not getting any development at all on the SE flank over the metro Houston. Maybe there will be development later on? This looks like feast or famine it appears.

[jasons2k]

Pouring at the house...some blips here and there show-up over Houston but nothing 'solid' as of yet...it's still only 3:20 though...the weather gods are probably waiting for rush hour...

Edit 3:30 -- some semblance of a line is starting to take shape now over the area right along the outflow boundry, which is nearly stationary. It could be an interesting few hours ahead if this trend continues...

[CajunMama]

I'm so jealous of you houstonians. 92 with a heat index of 103 and sunny. This is not fun!

[Yankeegirl]

As I see it, its beautiful and sunny here with an 80% chance of rain.... I think its going to be a BUST!!

[jasons2k]

I had .18" here from that little 'rogue' storm earlier and that's it...strange system indeed!

[Aquawind]

Rainfall rate of 4.0 inches in 50 minutes was recorded this morning in Seguin, TX.

WOW! Some serious rains alright.. Stay safe folks!

[Ptarmigan]

I notice some development over Mexico west of Del Rio. I wonder if it will affect us later on?

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff:

Another incredible core rain event with our tropical low. Hard hit locations overnight were between Waco and Tyler where up to 15 inches fell just ENE of Waco. Widespread 4-8 inches fell in the region bounded by Waco, Tyler, and College Station since yesterday. Widespread flooding is in progress with travel extremely difficult between Houston and Dallas and Austin and Dallas.

Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for our northern counties until this evening after the excessive rainfall yesterday and the potential for additional rainfall today. Creeks and streams are near or above flood stage at several locations around College Station and any additional rainfall will quickly result in flooding.

Slow moving “tropical low” continues to produce excessive rainfall near and to the east of its center now located between Bryan and Tyler. Feed of very moist air continues to flow northward off the Gulf of Mexico into this system with overnight convergence near the center leading to excessive rainfall in slow to nearly stationary convection. This low will finally get a better kick and be pushed out of the state on Friday as a trough digs into the western US. For today however, heating should begin to generate scattered thunderstorms over mainly the northern half of SE TX. Flash Flood guidance in the watch area is running between 1.0-1.5 inches and given the possible rainfall rates this is easily of being exceeded…hence the watch. Feel most area will see scattered activity with more concentrated stuff along and north of Hwy 105 closer to the low circulation and cold pool generation building south out of N TX. One other concern is the favorable inflow from the SSW of PWS in excess of 2.0-2.25 inches. Radar this morning has shown activity attempting to form into lines over Polk and San Jacinto counties with low level flow and mean steering flow favorable for cell training.

With the tropical low moving out of the state Friday mid level ridging will build in from the east allowing a return to a more typical summer pattern of isolated afternoon seabreeze storms under hot high temperatures. Wet grounds and temperatures in the mid 90’s will push heat index values well into the 100’s over the weekend.

Hydro:

Recent rains causing significant rises on area rivers. Ongoing rains over NC TX this morning will likely generate flood waves on the middle Brazos and middle Navasota River and possibly the middle Trinity….will have to see how the hydrology plays out as to if flood stages are reaches at any points on these rivers. With 10-12 inches over parts of the Navasota River flooding seems like a good bet.

Guadalupe River:

Major to severe flash flood occurred yesterday along the upper portion of the river from New Braunsfels to below Seguin. Large flood wave is moving downstream this morning with a flood warnings issues for the entre river to the Gulf of Mexico.

At Gonzales:

Current Stage: 26.5 ft
Flood Stage: 31.0 ft
Forecast: River is in a rapid rise and will reach 35.0-36.0 feet tonight. Moderate flooding will be in progress at levels at or above 37 ft.

At Victoria:

Current Stage: 8.5 ft
Flood Stage: 21.0ft
Forecast: River will begin a rapid rise Friday and crest near 28.0 ft late this weekend. At 27.0 ft moderate low land flooding inundates low approaches to the zoo. Livestock and crops in the floodplain between Cuero and Tivoli are cut-off.

[srainhoutx]

Tale of the haves and have nots...long term not looking promising as well. Cactus Forum may need to be revived...

Code: Select all

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1103 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

...WARM TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...

    ...RAINFALL PATTERNS VARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS LAST JUNE BUT
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE 30 YEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. IN PARTICULAR...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN QUITE WARM AS OF LATE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BARELY FALLING
BELOW 80 DEGREES.

MINOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. THERE IS NO PATTERN TO THE RAINFALL THIS YEAR AS RAINFALL
TOTALS VARY GREATLY BETWEEN NEIGHBORING COMMUNITIES. 2010 RAINFALL
AT HOBBY AIRPORT IS ONLY 13.31 INCHES WHILE NEAR BY AT
SUGARLAND...THE 2010 RAINFALL IS 20.85 INCHES. HUNTSVILLE HAS
RECEIVED 8.49 INCHES OF RAIN THIS YEAR...YET COLLEGE STATION HAS
RECEIVED 19.06 INCHES OF RAIN. ARE WE IN A DROUGHT? PROBABLY YES
IF YOU LIVE IN HUNTSVILLE AND PROBABLY NOT IF YOU LIVE IN COLLEGE
STATION.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND
OVER TEXAS BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

BELOW IS A TABLE WITH MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS FOR SOME COMMUNITIES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THESE VALUES WILL SHOW THE VARIABILITY IN
2010 RAINFALL PATTERNS:

COMMUNITY    JAN   FEB   MAR   APR   MAY   JUN   YEAR    DEP

BUSH IAH     2.53  3.55  1.88  2.81  3.68  0.81  15.26  -6.17
HOBBY APT    2.30  3.38  2.04  1.06  1.71  2.82  13.31  -8.97
COL STN      2.93  2.77  2.62  1.11  2.00  7.63  19.06  +0.23
HUNTSVILLE   1.86  1.98  1.34  0.80  0.67  1.84   8.49 -12.82
SGR LND      1.86  2.94  3.25  2.09  4.75  5.96  20.85  -0.92
HOUSTON NWS  2.41  4.25  2.21  0.61  2.19  4.39  16.06  -9.29
ANGLETON     3.02  3.55  1.81  2.51  2.51        13.40  -9.41
PALACIOS     5.91  4.53  1.81  1.49  4.57  1.72  20.03  +2.63
CONROE       2.69  3.24  2.01  1.85  1.36  1.92  13.07  -8.34
DW HOOKS     1.73  3.68  2.57  1.16  3.61  0.92  13.67  -1.44
ALVIN        3.08  3.69  2.45  0.92  2.38  2.91  15.43
ANAHUAC      1.94  4.70  2.10  0.30  3.05  1.34  13.43
BAYTOWN      2.89  3.60  2.33  0.79  6.23  1.67  17.51
BRENHAM      2.98  5.39  2.41  1.00  2.73  4.50  19.01
CLEVELAND    2.75  4.07  2.92  0.72  2.50  4.40  17.36
COLUMBUS     3.26  4.04  3.65  1.07  3.81  2.80  18.63
CROCKETT     2.03  3.87  4.89  1.72  1.17  4.52  18.20
DANEVANG     3.47  3.35  1.63  0.52  7.88  3.20  20.05
HOU HTS      2.02  4.21  2.36  1.13  4.12  1.96  15.80
HOU WBURY    2.56  3.32  2.82  1.66  3.80  2.65  16.81
KATY         2.37  2.40  3.65  1.89  6.06  3.06  19.43
MATAGORDA    6.88  4.53  1.15  1.74  2.20  2.50  19.00
RICHMOND     1.71  3.01  2.71  1.54  5.01  2.96  16.94
SOMERVILLE   2.94  3.42  2.15  1.77  2.71  3.77  16.76
WASHINGTON   2.54  3.59  1.60  3.45  3.03  4.84  19.05
WHARTON      0.90  3.89  2.16  0.48  2.85  3.55  13.83

$$