Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1101 PM AST TUE JUN 8 2010

.UPDATE...EXPLOSIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON RAPIDLY
DIMINISHED AROUND SUNSET...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME. WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING TOMORROW...CONTINUE TO
EXPECT AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...
RESULTING IN DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA...
CURRENTLY NEAR 53 WEST...IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS ON FRIDAY. STILL EXPECT AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH THIS WAVE AS IT PASSES BY...ALBEIT NAM IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN LATEST GFS...SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN JUST HOW ACTIVE FRIDAY WILL BE.
OVERALL...PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLED THIS UNCERTAINTY WELL...SO
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Here comes the active wave towards the Lesser Antilles islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST WED JUN 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS HISPANIOLA
FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC..WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE FILLING. SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC...WILL MAINTAIN A PREVAILING
LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
SLIGHTLY INCREASE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SINKS FURTHER SOUTH...AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREAS AND THUS
SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE LOCAL TRADE WIND FLOW. IN THE MEANTIME A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MOISTURE
FRAGMENTS ACCOMPANYING A TROPICAL NOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CARIBBEAN AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WILL BE LIFTED
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION...TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS...AND
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERE...TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TODAY AND ALSO ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...SOME MAY BE PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN ISOLATED AREAS. MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY NEAR 54 WEST THIS
MORNING...IS STILL EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY
FRIDAY. WHILE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE WAVE TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT SUFFICIENT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE LIFTED
ALONG NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS . THIS COMBINED WITH PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH
WILL SAG JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...SHOULD ENHANCE EARLY MORNING AND
DAYTIME CONVECTION AT LEAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THE
NAM MODEL REMAINED MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE BUT FOR NOW WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AND MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW IT
UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 09/17Z...BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TJMZ...AND
TJBQ. LATEST 09/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 15K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLIES BUT STILL
LIGHT ALOFT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 0.44 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT SAN
JUAN/P.R. YESTERDAY (8 JUN 2010). THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF
0.37 SET IN 1998.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

NHC mentions the wave but the % for development is 0.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH NO
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Barbados Observations

They are having pretty strong winds and heavy showers.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 30 MPH (26 KT)
Visibility 1 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Heavy rain showers
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.00 in. Hg (1016 hPa)

[Gustywind]

From a friend of Nevis' island:
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/nevis.shtml
- Nevis Weather Data
By "Harry W. Hallstrom" <hwh888 at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 9 Jun 2010 07:11:01 -0400

Greetings,

May was not quite as wet as April but still plenty of rain here for the month.
The weather has finally cleared & the horizon is actually visible with blue sky and fair weather clouds about.

Attached the year to date weather data & two charts showing temp variation between Jan 2010 & May 2010.

Thanks,

Harry

Here are some precious infos:

[cycloneye]

HPC discussion of Caribbean this morning.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

IN THE SHORT RANGE...AS THE TUTT MEANDERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...TROPICAL WAVES ENTERING THE ISLAND CHAIN
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS 14N/15N...WHICH IS UNUSUAL FOR JUNE
(MORE COMMON IN AUGUST-OCTOBER). ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF 16N...I EXPECT SOME OF
THEIR MOISTURE TO MAKE IT TO THE FORECAST AREA ON DAY 02 (FRIDAY).
POSITIVE INTERACTION WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS WITH
THE TUTT ALOFT WILL POSSIBLY MAKE IT QUITE INTENSE...IF NOT
EXPLOSIVE...PRECIPITATION EVENT.

[cycloneye]

Observations from St Lucia.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TLPL.html

Conditions at Jun 09, 2010 - 12:00 PM EDTJun 09, 2010-
Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 28 MPH (24 KT)
Visibility 3 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain showers
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.00 in. Hg (1016 hPa)

[abajan]

Barbados Observations

They are having pretty strong winds and heavy showers.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 30 MPH (26 KT)
Visibility 1 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Heavy rain showers
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.00 in. Hg (1016 hPa)

I can certainly vouch for that! As a matter of fact, it's raining as I type and the wind is fairly gusty at times. While making my rounds earlier, I noticed a few tree branches down.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 091732
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

[msbee]

HPC discussion of Caribbean this morning.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

IN THE SHORT RANGE...AS THE TUTT MEANDERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...TROPICAL WAVES ENTERING THE ISLAND CHAIN
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS 14N/15N...WHICH IS UNUSUAL FOR JUNE
(MORE COMMON IN AUGUST-OCTOBER). ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF 16N...I EXPECT SOME OF
THEIR MOISTURE TO MAKE IT TO THE FORECAST AREA ON DAY 02 (FRIDAY).
POSITIVE INTERACTION WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS WITH
THE TUTT ALOFT WILL POSSIBLY MAKE IT QUITE INTENSE...IF NOT
EXPLOSIVE...PRECIPITATION EVENT.

Luis,what "forecast area" are they talking about?

[cycloneye]

HPC discussion of Caribbean this morning.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

IN THE SHORT RANGE...AS THE TUTT MEANDERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...TROPICAL WAVES ENTERING THE ISLAND CHAIN
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS 14N/15N...WHICH IS UNUSUAL FOR JUNE
(MORE COMMON IN AUGUST-OCTOBER). ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF 16N...I EXPECT SOME OF
THEIR MOISTURE TO MAKE IT TO THE FORECAST AREA ON DAY 02 (FRIDAY).
POSITIVE INTERACTION WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS WITH
THE TUTT ALOFT WILL POSSIBLY MAKE IT QUITE INTENSE...IF NOT
EXPLOSIVE...PRECIPITATION EVENT.

Luis,what "forecast area" are they talking about?

They do these kind of discussions for all the Caribbean Basin.

[abajan]

The wind speed has increased noticeably since my last post. I'm sure they're now gusting to storm force. What on earth is going on?!!

[cycloneye]

The wind speed has increased noticeably since my last post. I'm sure they're now gusting to storm force. What on earth is going on?!!

From Barbados at 1:00 PM.

Wind from the ESE (110 degrees) at 28 MPH (24 KT)
Visibility 1 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Heavy rain showers
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 75 F (24 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.00 in. Hg (1016 hPa)

Stay safe and dry there my friend.

[tropicana]

A strong tropical wave in the vicinity of the Windward Islands was continuing to produce numerous showers and intense thunderstorms across the area.

A high volume of rain has been reported in Barbados, inlcluding Rockley, Christchurch with 38mm, Long Beach (just SW of Grantley Adams) 25mm, Lodge Hill (east of Paradise Beach) 33mm.
Seperate thunderstorms across Trinidad due to heating have produced 18mm of rain at Pointe a Pierre (SW TRinidad) and 15mm at Maraval (West Trinidad) to early afternoon. 26mm of rain has fallen at Piarco International Airport in the past 18 hours to 2pm.
In St Lucia, 33 mm of rain has fallen at Vigie, and 28mm across in Martinique at the airport.

The wave continues to produce multi-layered cloudiness and moderate to heavy thunderstorms and gusty winds, most especially in the vicinity of Barbados and St Lucia. Pressures are relatively high in the area

[Gustywind]

- Tropical Wave passing through By Christopher Jenkins <chrissjuk at aol.com>
Date: Wed, 9 Jun 2010 11:46:49 -0400

Hello to all weather watchers out there. Dire forecasts for this season and I can only hope enough resources reach Haiti to prevent further disaster, the rain alone threatens many lives. As a tropical wave passes through here with winds currently around 30kph, it was time to carry out an initial check of whether our site clear up had left any loose materials around. So far so good, but I can see downpipes from the roof terraces that need better clipping before they sail away. Winds tonight forecast to increase to around 40kph and the rest of the week will be pretty windy. I read Jeff Master's blog today and he is suggesting La Nina will bring us additional rainfall this year in the region, as if the Hurricane forecast wasn't enough! So, as Gert always reminds us, prepare now - it's looks like being one heck of a season
Regards to all
Chris Jenkins
http://www.zaravillas.com

[Gustywind]

The wind speed has increased noticeably since my last post. I'm sure they're now gusting to storm force. What on earth is going on?!!

Here we are, another friend from Barbados is also amazed by the wind speed...
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... ados.shtml
- Squally Conditions
By Lemuel Taylor <lem_rt at hotmail.com>
Date: Wed, 9 Jun 2010 16:21:10 +0000

Well it appears that this T-wave has serious intentions if only in the short-term. Wind gusts of 51 mph have been recorded by the airport, and an unofficial gust of 70mph recorded at a private residence. There was a bit of a lull a few minutes ago but now the winds and rains have begun again. It's going to be an interesting day when it's all done.
Hello to Mark and Eye Write(lol). I might have some pics in my next post.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon Discussion by NWS San Juan

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
234 PM AST WED JUN 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE NOW NEAR 57 WEST IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...GENERATING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
OVER THESE AREAS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATED AT AROUND SUNSET. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT AVAILABLE
MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO GENERATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.


THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED AT AROUND 56W THIS AFTERNOON...IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. WHILE THE LATEST
GFS AND NAM MODELS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE WAVE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...EXPECT SUFFICIENT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE LIFTED ALONG
NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. THIS COMBINED WITH PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...SHOULD ENHANCE EARLY
MORNING AND DAYTIME CONVECTION AT LEAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME VCSH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL 09/23Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 3-5 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS UP TO 7 FT OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS
AS A WIND SURGE MOVES PRECEDES A TROPICAL WAVE.

[msbee]

HI Gusty
is the Meteo Antilles web site down? I'm getting nothing there