Euro/Models develops African wave

[Ivanhater]

Surprised no one posted the 12z Euro. It develops Alex from an African wave in about 144 hours

[Scorpion]

Pretty impressive to have the Euro on board for an African wave in June.

[cycloneye]

Is for now the only model with this as GFS that in yesterday runs had it has dropped it.

[KWT]

Yeah, though its barely a TD. Such a system is very rare indeed for June, I think only 2 systems have ever been upgraded past say 65W that far south?

Just another sign that things are getting ready to get going.

[gatorcane]

Wouldn't this be a topic for the long-range models thread that already exists?

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813

[somethingfunny]

In over 150 years of records - 50 with satellites - this is the only precedent we've got. But it can happen.

[Ivanhater]

Why clump it into that thread if this is its own entity that is about to merge off Africa.

[srainhoutx]

Why clump it into that thread if this is its own entity that is about to merge off Africa.

Agree! Good to see the EC sniffing out something for a change.

[cycloneye]

Why clump it into that thread if this is its own entity that is about to merge off Africa.

Bingo.

[Aquawind]

This should make for some serious data watching the next couple days. Certainly a sign of things to come.

[cycloneye]

This should make for some serious data watching the next couple days. Certainly a sign of things to come.

That is why I have in the title of the thread for the wave now in the islands (A preview of things to come?) And now it looks like things may heat up.

[wxman57]

Looks like the Euro is also forecasting some pretty serious shear (30kts or more) in its path as it reaches the Caribbean, too. Yeah, a sign of things to come, but probably in July in that area.

[lonelymike]

Once again Wxman57 crushes the dreams and hopes of Hurricane fanatics everywhere

Ivanhater the dream of chaining yourself to the bar at Floribama lives on. In the immortal words of a fat Irish senator from Massachusets...." the work goes on, the dream never dies"!!

[Ivanhater]

Lol Mike, I don't think that will work this season. I'd rather not have oil spraying on me lol

[srainhoutx]

Once again Wxman57 crushes the dreams and hopes of Hurricane fanatics everywhere

Nah. He just wants the weekend off...

[cycloneye]

Wow,a good anticyclone over it.

[wxman57]

Once again Wxman57 crushes the dreams and hopes of Hurricane fanatics everywhere

Nah. He just wants the weekend off...

Having a 2nd weekend off this season is nice. But I'm just being realistic. I think we'll see 2-3 named storms before August. Quite possibly one in the western Caribbean in 3-4 days before it moves ashore into Central America and/or southern Mexico. It's a bit too early for waves in the Tropical Atlantic with that barrier of shear lingering in the eastern Caribbean. That area may not open up for another month. After that, all hell will break loose, I'm sure.

[gatorcane]

Yes, too early for development in the MDR. As for named storms before August, I would expect 2-3 as well, but I am not expecting a named system in the WCAR in 3-4 days from the the wave entering the Eastern Caribbean, probably just a wave that flares up periodically and crashes into Central America.

[KWT]

ECM once again goes for a weak low developing in the Atlantic and into the Caribbean, probably a weak TD with just about a closed circulation....not likely to come off though.

[ronjon]

00Z CMC now showing a weak reflection of this feature.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010061000&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation