Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

HI Gusty
is the Meteo Antilles web site down? I'm getting nothing there

No Msbee i don't tkink that. Do you have the right link? Here is the link of Meteo-France Guadeloupe:
http://www.meteo.gp/
Regards
Gustywind

[expat2carib]

Hi everybody,

It's this time of year again!

Hi Gusty the radar site http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html is partly down. It shows a enlarged icon and will only come up some seconds when one click "animation"

[Gustywind]

Hi everybody,

It's this time of year again!

Hi Gusty the radar site http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html is partly down. It shows a enlarged icon and will only come up some seconds when one click "animation"

Ah ok the radar, Msbee said the weather site, i don't thought that she was speaking about the radar.

[expat2carib]

Hi Gusty,

No idea which page dear msbee is talking about. I only know the radar is partly down

BTW Did you survive the winter in style?

[cycloneye]

expat2carib,welcome back to this thread. Hopefully,this season will not be rough for the islands,but mother nature rules as always and that is why we have to be prepared as the predictions by the experts are for a very busy season. Of course your observations from Dominica will be welcomed as is one of the important things that this thread has.Dont forget to tour the first post of this thread to see radars and many web cams.

[tropicana]

Regional Weather Summary
Wed Jun 9 2010

Wednesday's Highs and rain (if any)

Piarco, C. Trinidad 33.7C 93F 24.8mm
Maraval, W Trinidad 29.6C 86F 14.5mm
Pointe-a-Pierre SW Trinidad 32.4C 90F 21.3mm
Couva, C. Trinidad 34.6C 94F 43.7mm
Crown Point, Tobago 30.6C 87F 4.0mm

Point Salines, Grenada 31.0C 87F trace (est temp)
Grantley Adams, Barbados 27.2C 81F 38.5mm *51mph gust*
Rockley, S. Barbados 28.0C 82F 47.2mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.2C 85F 5.0mm
Hewannora, St Lucia 29.0C 84F 15.0mm
Vigie, St Lucia 30.8C 87F 36.0mm

Canefield, Dominica 33.0C 91F 8.3mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 31.2C 88F 0.3mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 30.8C 87F 31.2mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 31.8C 89F 5.8mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 31.4C 88F
VC Bird, Antigua 30.4C 86F 4.1mm
St Marteen, Virgin Islands 30.7C 87F trace
St Thomas, Virgin Islands 32.2C 90F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 32.2C 90F 0.3mm

Kingston, Jamaica 32.7C 91F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 33.7C 93F trace
Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 32.1C 90F
Havana, Cuba 33.3C 92F
Key West, Florida 32.2C 90F trace
Miami, Florida 32.8C 91F

Nassau, Bahamas 32.2C 90F
Hamilton, Bermuda 24.3C 76F

-justin-

[expat2carib]

Thanks Luis!

Still a big thanks for your offer to provide us with weather info while me and my family where under way from Daytona Beach to Dominica. It went out that we could get all info underway on the net, but sometimes I really missed storm2K and especially you, as I only received weather faxes when not on wifi.

We made the trip. It took 4 months instead of the 6 weeks we planned. We are now in Dominica and are waiting for a weather window to get our old trawler to Grenada. (Insurance only pays when we are below 12.40N)

[msbee]

HI Gusty
is the Meteo Antilles web site down? I'm getting nothing there

No Msbee i don't tkink that. Do you have the right link? Here is the link of Meteo-France Guadeloupe:
http://www.meteo.gp/
Regards
Gustywind

thanks Gusty
the link was always
http://www.meteo.fr
they changed it?
I coudln't get the radar or anything on the site.
the meteo.fr did not take me to meteo.gp

[msbee]

Crown Weather Tropical Weather Discussion

Issued: Wednesday, June 9, 2010 600 am EDT/500 am CDT

Would you like this tropical weather discussion e-mailed to you each day? If so, just send an e-mail to: crownweatherservices-subscribe@yahoogroups.com and you will be added to our mailing list.
Discussion

The Current State Of Enso: I have received a few e-mails and comments on facebook asking about the current state of Enso conditions (La Nina/El Nino).

Currently, we are in neutral conditions for the Enso and one can argue that we are bordering on weak La Nina conditions. The European model has done a very good job forecasting this possibility and that particular model is now forecasting that we may be in La Nina conditions for much of the summer and in fact it forecasts the possibility of moderate La Nina conditions by August and September.

The forecast transition into La Nina conditions will affect the hurricane season, that’s for sure. Neutral and La Nina conditions will help to create an environment of reduced wind shear across the Atlantic Basin and with the very warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, this leads credence to that we will have a very busy hurricane season.

One item of note is that the La Nina conditions could favor a weather pattern that consists of a stronger western side of the Bermuda high pressure system and thus a higher risk of landfalls here in the United States.

Current Conditions In The Atlantic Basin: The Atlantic Basin, as a whole, is pretty quiet this morning. A tropical wave currently near 50 West Longitude is forecast to start affecting Barbados for much of today with thunderstorms and gusty winds. These thunderstorms and gusty winds will spread westward across the Windward Islands this afternoon. This increase in moisture may then continue for much of the rest of this week across Barbados and the Windward Islands.

One thing to note in the model guidance about this particular tropical wave (the one located near 50 West Longitude) is that the NAM model forecasts development into a tropical cyclone by the time it reaches the central Caribbean Friday evening. Also, the GFS model forecasts that this tropical wave strengthens some over the next few days, but it never develops into a tropical cyclone. Finally, the NOGAPS model forecasts that this tropical wave may try and develop in the western Caribbean early next week. It needs to be noted that the NAM model is poor at forecasting tropical development and the NOGAPS model has been developing “ghost storms” for a few weeks now. So, I am skeptical about tropical development over the next few days.

On the other hand, however, environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable over the next few days in the Caribbean, especially west of 75 West Longitude. So, the model guidance may be onto something and it is something I am going to keep a close eye on, especially this weekend into next week.

Even if this particular tropical wave does not develop (which is a good possibility that it doesn’t develop), there are even stronger tropical waves that are coming off of the coast of Africa which will need monitoring as they cross the Atlantic. The entire tropical wave train will slowly shift northward over the next few weeks and it is not out of the realm of possibilities that a tropical storm may develop in the central and eastern Atlantic later this month into early July. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is currently in a downward motion phase and will be for at least a couple of more weeks. By the end of this month into early July, the Madden Julian Oscillation will return to a upward motion phase and that’s when things may start really heating up storm wise in the Atlantic Basin.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 6 am EDT/5 am CDT Friday morning. No tropical weather discussions will be issued on Thursday.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1006 PM AST WED JUN 9 2010

.UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE WEST NORTH WEST OF AGUADILLA AND JUST
OFFSHORE FROM SAN JUAN AND ITS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS HAVE LEFT UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN...BUT ALMOST ALL
RAIN WAS OVER THE OCEAN. SOME RAIN WAS SEEN OVER CONDADO. SHOWERS
WERE MOVING AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS ON AVERAGE TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST.

LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST
AROUND SAN JUAN...BUT EVEN THESE SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING AT THE
MOMENT. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS THAT THE SHOWERS OVER SAN JUAN ARE
ON THE BACK EDGE OF A BAND OF MOISTURE AND THAT A DRIER AREA IS
MOVING INTO PUERTO RICO...HAVING ALREADY COVERED THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.THE DRIER TREND IS EXPECTED TO CARRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY THE NAM AND THE ECMWF ARE CARRYING MORE MOISTURE FOR
SATURDAY THAN FRIDAY...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THE TREND CONTINUES
BEFORE ALTERING GRIDS FOR SATURDAY. OTHERWISE HAVE MOISTENED UP
THE POPS FOR LATER IN THE 7-DAY PERIOD AS AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GIVEN MOISTURE AND STABILITY
LEVELS. WINDS REMAIN CLOSE TO EASTERLY SO TEMPERATURE TRENDS LOOK
GOOD WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES THRU 10/13Z...IN A
LLVL EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KTS. SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR AFT
10/16Z...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ.
INCREASED LLVL WINDS EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20KT EXPECTED AFT
10/12Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED REMAINDER OF TAF
SITES.

[Gustywind]

HI Gusty
is the Meteo Antilles web site down? I'm getting nothing there

No Msbee i don't tkink that. Do you have the right link? Here is the link of Meteo-France Guadeloupe:
http://www.meteo.gp/
Regards
Gustywind

thanks Gusty
the link was always
http://www.meteo.fr
they changed it?
I coudln't get the radar or anything on the site.
the meteo.fr did not take me to meteo.gp

Ok Msbee. Thanks for this info. Glad to see that you're right for now

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Wave moving thru the islands but less strong right now.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST THU JUN 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS HISPANIOLA
FROM THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS SAGGING JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND BECOME MORE EAST TO WEST ORIENTED AND LAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WITH THE SOUTHERN AND LEADING EDGE OF AXIS WAS
NOW ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN BARBADOS AND TRINIDAD...AS
SUGGESTED BY EARLIER MKPB UPPER AIR SOUNDING WHICH SHOWED LOW LEVEL
WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 35 KNOTS. THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE WAVE
WAS TILTED NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LEEWARDS...AND IS BEING
BEING SHEARED BY 30-35 KNOTS UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. EXPECT THIS WAVE
TO SLOWLY ENTER THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...
HOWEVER BASED ON LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE...A GENERAL WESTERLY MOTION
WILL KEEP MAIN MOISTURE FIELD ALONG WAVE AXIS AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HOT AND SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME OF THE RAINFALL MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES
AND MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WHILE MODEL GI DANCE KEEPS MUCH OF MOISTURE
FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MAINLY SOUTH...STILL EXPECT
PERIPHERAL MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH AN INDUCED
WIND SURGE ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE
TO WAVE PASSAGE...AND THE EAST ATLANTIC HIGH WHICH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THEREFORE THE INFLUENCE OF A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION...ALONG WITH LOCAL TERRAIN AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS...WILL AID IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...EXPECT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING INTERVALS OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE SURGES
ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS. HOWEVER
CONTINUE TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AND WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND MAINTAINED CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH
OVERALL DID NOT GO FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DO HOWEVER EXPECT SOME EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER TROUGH...ALONG GOOD DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE
LOCAL TAF SITES THRU 10/13Z...IN A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
10-15 KTS. SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO AFTER 10/16Z...WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ. INCREASED LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20KT EXPECTED AFT 10/12Z...WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF TAF SITES.
TJSJ 10/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 20
KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 15K FEET...
BECOMING VARIABLE AND LIGHT ALOFT.

[msbee]

CROWN WEATHER

Issued: Thursday, June 10, 2010 555 am EDT/455 am CDT

For the Tropical Weather Discussion with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325.

Discussion
Development In The Western Caribbean Late This Weekend/Early Next Week??: A tropical wave tracked across the Lesser Antilles yesterday and brought rain and gusty winds to these islands. In fact, the island of Barbados had sustained winds of 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

As of this morning, strong shear across the eastern Atlantic has squashed convection and development is not expected for at least the next 2 to 3 days. After that, by late this weekend into early next week, this tropical wave will have to be watched closely once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development and the model guidance has been on and off regarding the development of a low pressure system forming in the southwest Caribbean and interacting with this tropical wave; this interaction may lead to tropical cyclone development by early next week. Right now, it is something that needs to be watched for closely and I will keep you all updated. It should be noted that if a tropical system does form in the southwestern Caribbean, it would likely track west-northwestward into central America and the chances of it getting into the Gulf of Mexico are extremely low.

Watching A Strong Tropical Disturbance Over Western Africa For Possible Development Next Week And Beyond: A fairly robust tropical wave was located over western Africa this morning and is forecast to emerge in the far eastern Atlantic as soon as Friday evening. This tropical wave is then forecast to track westward this weekend into next week and should reach the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean around next Thursday or next Friday (June 17th or June 18th) . The latest European model and also the Canadian models are hinting at some sort of weak development as it traverses the eastern Atlantic next week.

Personally, I think the chances for development are relatively low. The reason being is that this disturbance will be running right into 30+ knots of shear and this should limit any chances of development. With that said, this tropical wave is expected to eventually reach the Caribbean by June 17th or 18th and there are signs that it could still be a rather vigorous disturbance; therefore tropical cyclone development may increase as we head into the week of June 21st thanks to this tropical wave. Obviously, this tropical wave will be watched closely over the next week or two.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 6 am EDT/5 am CDT Friday morning.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST THU JUN 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL HELP
MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY HOT AND GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAILED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO...BUT OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WAS
OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ALSO...HAZY SKIES WERE SEEN ACROSS
PUERTO RICO SINCE THIS MORNING. LATEST NOAA/NESDIS 100 KM AEROSOL
OPTICAL THICKNESS PRODUCT SHOWED AN AREA OF DUST AND PARTICLES
APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS WAS NOTICEABLE ALSO
IN LATEST VISIBLE SATELITE IMAGES. THESE HAZY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT LEAST 12 MORE HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...UNTIL THIS
DUST MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS WAVE...WHICH MOST OF ITS MOISTURE WILL NOT AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA. WINDS HAVE INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND THIS WILL BE THE
CASE TOMORROW ALSO...AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO WAVE
PASSAGE...AND THE EAST ATLANTIC HIGH WHICH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE LONG TERM...COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGESTS PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SHRA ACTIVITY NEAR TJBQ AND TJMZ MAY PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR CONDS ACROSS THESE SITES BETWEEN 10/18Z TO 10/22Z. ALSO...
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH HAZY SKIES
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND
FLOW OF 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL
TOMORROW.

[tropicana]

Regional Weather Summary
Thu Jun 10 2010

Thursday's Highs and rain (if any)

Piarco, C. Trinidad 30.2C 86F 12.3mm
Maraval, W Trinidad 27.2C 81F 7.1mm
Pointe-a-Pierre SW Trinidad 29.1C 84F 4.3mm
Crown Point, Tobago 30.1C 86F 18.0mm

Point Salines, Grenada 29.0C 84F 2.4mm (est temp)
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.4C 88F 2.0mm
Rockley, S. Barbados 31.9C 89F 3.6mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 31.0C 88F 5.0mm
Hewannora, St Lucia 31.7C 89F 0.8mm

Canefield, Dominica 32.9C 91F 2.3mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 31.5C 89F
Le Lamentin, Martinique 31.7C 89F 4.7mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 31.6C 89F TRACE

Golden Rock, St Kitts 31.2C 88F
VC Bird, Antigua 31.4C 88F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 31.7C 89F

Kingston, Jamaica 33.2C 92F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 34.0C 93F
Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 32.4C 90F
Havana, Cuba 33.4C 92F 1.0MM
Key West, Florida 31.1C 88F 6.1mm
Miami, Florida 35.0C 95F

Nassau, Bahamas 34.6C 94F
Hamilton, Bermuda 25.5C 78F

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
403 AM AST FRI JUN 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FROM THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS SAGGING JUST
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXPECT THE NOW
EAST TO WEST ORIENTED TROUGH TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
AND JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM THE
EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A TROPICAL
WAVE NOW LOCATED NEAR 67 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST AND HAVE NO DIRECT AFFECT ON THE LOCAL REGION. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWER SMALL PATCHES OF MOSTLY SHALLOW MOISTURE
MOVING WEST ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL THE LOCAL AIR MASS REMAINED
RELATIVELY DRY AS DEPICTED ON LATEST GPS-MET PRECIPITABLE WATER
DATA FOR SAN JUAN AND ISABELLA AS WELL AS THE MIMIC TPW ANALYSIS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ISLANDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...WHERE THE EFFECTS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE/TERRAIN
FORCING AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MORE DOMINANT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENT
TREND SHOWED A DECREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER RANGING BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.70 INCHES. THEREFORE...CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

THEREAFTER AND EVERY TWO DAYS OR SO...EXPECT WEAK EASTERLY
PERTURBATION/TROPICAL WAVES TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD AND BRING
OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS FROM TIME TO TIME. CURRENTLY...ALL MODELS SEEM TO BE
CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THE MAIN MOISTURE FIELD ACCOMPANYING
THE TROPICAL WAVES TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL REGION...WITH ONLY
FRAGMENTS OF PERIPHERAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS.
WHILE MOST OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL BE LOCALLY
AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN...EXPECT THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH TO ENHANCE
EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION... WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS DURING THE AFTERNOONS...MAINLY
OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS SHOULD EXPERIENCE HOT AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS ACROSS ONE OR TWO OF THE ISLANDS.

LONG TERM...NO MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS OR SO. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF PERIOD...
LATEST GFS GUIDANCE DOES SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BECOME AMPLIFIED ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE MONA PASSAGE... AND AT
THE SAME TIME AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS IS STILL A LONG WAYS OUT AND AS USUAL WILL STICK
WITH CLIMO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE
LOCAL TAF SITES THRU 11/15Z...IN A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
10-15 KTS. SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO AFTER 11/16Z...WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ. INCREASED
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED
AFT 11/12Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. TJSJ 11/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY
WIND FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 17K FEET...
BECOMING VARIABLE AND LIGHT ALOFT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91 DEGREES WAS SET AT CHRISTIANSTED
SAINT CROIXAIRPORT/USVI YESTERDAY (10 JUN 2010). THIS TIES THE OLD
RECORD OF 91 SET IN 1988.

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST FRI JUN 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN EAST TO WEST UPPER LVL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CNTRL ATLC INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. SFC HIGH PRES TO THE
NORTH WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS KEEP MAINLY SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS PR/USVI
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH DEEP MOISTURE (PW VALUES GREATER
THAN 2.0 INCHES) REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES WILL FAVOR EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF PR
AND AFTERNOON STREAMERS OFF THE ISLANDS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVR WRN PR WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. THIS PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVR THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE SEEN OVR THE ERN ATLC ONE ALONG 35W AND
ANOTHER MORE IMPRESSIVE ONE ALONG 25W. AN 1134Z ASCAT PASS THIS
MORNING SHOWED A BROAD SFC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
ALONG 35W AND A WINDSAT PASS AROUND 0738Z SHOWED A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH THE ONE ALONG 25W. ALTHOUGH JUNE TC CLIMATOLOGY
IS STRONGLY AGAINST DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES IN THIS PART OF THE ATLC
THE EXPECTATIONS OF A BUSY HURRICANE SEASON HAVE ME LOOKING AT
THIS PART OF THE ATLC EARLIER THAN I WOULD NORMALLY DO. THE 12Z
GFS SHOWS WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 35W. WHILE
THE WAVE LACKS SUFFICIENT DEEP CONVECTION AND HAVE NOT PERSISTED
LONG ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A DISTURBANCE THE ASCAT PASS
SHOWED A REALLY NICE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH. GIVEN THE LACK
OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE ATLC AND WARM SSTS SUGGEST THIS WAVE
MAY HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT
ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR AT ALONG 50W ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LVL
TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN ATLC.

&&

.AVIATION...TSRA AT JMZ THRU 22Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH 20 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AFTERNOON TSTMS OFF THE WEST COAST THE MAIN CONCERN.

&&

.CLIMATE...FIFTH WARMEST START TO JUNE ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 84.2F DEGS AT THE LMM INTL AIRPORT. THE WARMEST JUNE
ON RECORD WAS 1983 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 86.8 DEGS.
THIS IS ALSO THE THIRD WARMEST START TO A YEAR ON RECORD WITH AN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 80.5F AND ALSO THE WETTEST START TO A YEAR ON
RECORD WITH A TOTAL OF 32.35 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH JUNE 10TH. THIS
IS FOLLOWED BY 1958 WITH 31.96 INCHES AND 1956 WITH 31.16 INCHES.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Looking at Africa...