Caribbean - Central America Weather

[tropicana]

Regional Weather Summary
Fri Jun 11 2010

Friday's Highs and rain (if any)

Piarco, C. Trinidad 32.5C 91F 0.5mm
Maraval, W Trinidad 31.1C 88F 3.6mm
Crown Point, Tobago 30.6C 87F

Point Salines, Grenada 29.5C 86F 0.5mm (est temp)
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.7C 87F 1.0mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 31.5C 89F 0.7mm
Hewannora, St Lucia 32.0C 90F 1.6mm

Canefield, Dominica 33.1C 92F 0.5mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 31.8C 89F 5.0mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 31.5C 89F 0.8mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 29.7C 86F 40.8mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 31.1C 88F 1.6mm
VC Bird, Antigua 31.3C 88F
St Thomas, VI 32.8C 91F 0.5mm
St Marteen, VI 31.3C 88F trace
San Juan, Puerto Rico 31.1C 88F

Kingston, Jamaica 34.1C 94F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 34.2C 94F
Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 33.7C 93F 0.3mm
Havana, Cuba 35.0C 95F 3.0mm
Key West, Florida 31.7C 89F
Miami, Florida 32.8C 91F 2.7mm

Nassau, Bahamas 35.2C 95F 0.3mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 25.5C 78F 0.3mm

Hato, Curacao 30.8C 87F 14.3mm ( morning thunderstorms)
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 31.7C 89F 4.2mm
Flamingo, Bonaire 30.8C 87F 2.4mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1048 PM AST FRI JUN 11 2010

.UPDATE...PATCHY MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE VI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE INCREASED
SHOWER COVERAGE ON RADAR THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THIS AREA OF
MOISTURE APPROACHES THE REGION. FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER ACROSS PUERTO
RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT APPROACHING AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
EXPECTED INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE FOR TOMORROW...BUT NO OTHER
CHANGES NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...A VCSH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ AND TJBQ THROUGH
12/14Z. IN ADDITION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE VI...TNCM AND TKPK OVERNIGHT IN A QUICK PASSING SHRA.
SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
WESTERN AND SW PR AFT 12/16Z...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPORARY MVFR OR
BRIEF IFR CONDS ACROSS TJMZ BETWEEN 12/17Z-12/22Z. PREVAILING LLVL
WIND FLOW EXPECTED TO BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 KTS NEXT 24 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Some scattered showers today in the northern Leewards,VI and Puerto Rico thanks to a surface trough.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
422 AM AST SAT JUN 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A PERTURBATION IN THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS...JUST EAST AND ACROSS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING
THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE V.I. AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. IN FACT...LATER RADAR OBSERVATIONS...INDICATED AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER COVERAGE THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THIS AREA OF MOISTURE
APPROACHES THE REGION.

THIS MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE REGION...WILL ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...WITH
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY...BUT HOT AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS ACROSS ONE OR TWO OF THE ISLANDS.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS MOISTURE...NUMERICAL MODELS KEEP ONLY
SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
PREVAILING TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FA WILL FAVOR EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...QUICK PASSING SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AND VCNTY OF
TJSJ AND TJBQ THROUGH 12/12Z. IN ADDITION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VI...TNCM AND TKPK OVERNIGHT IN A QUICK
PASSING SHRA AND TEMPO MVFR CONDS AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS IN PASSING
SHRA. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...WEST AND SOUTHWEST PR AFT
12/16Z.THIS WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS
TJMZ AND VCNTY TJPS BETWEEN 12/17Z-12/22Z. PREVAILING LLVL WIND FLOW
EXPECTED TO BE EAST NORTHEAST BTW 10 TO 20 KTS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST SAT JUN 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SW ATLANTIC. AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS INTO NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CNTRL ATLC
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WITH AXIS WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY WITH MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOW BUILDING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. VERY DRY AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAVE ADVECTED
INTO THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND UPPER LVL TROUGH WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
VERY LIMITED SHRA ACTIVITY SO FAR. MID-UPPER LVL RIDGING IS NOW
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE WHEN MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. MAINLY SHALLOW MOISTURE AND
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AT BEST.

RATHER IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL WAVE FOR THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON
ANALYZED ALONG 35W HAS A BROAD SFC CIRCULATION. THERE IS STILL A
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS
BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG SHEAR NORTH OF ABOUT 12N. 12Z GFS DOES
NOT LONGER INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE AND ALL GUIDANCE XCPT
12Z CANADIAN INDICATE THIS WAVE APPROACHING PR/USVI NEXT FRI AS AN
OPEN WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT JMZ WITH VCTS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL OTHER TAF
SITES.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Invest 92L is in the Eastern Atlantic.Lets watch the progress of it to see if it will affect the Eastern Caribbean Islands down the road or not.

[Gustywind]

Invest 92L is in the Eastern Atlantic.Lets watch the progress of it to see if it will affect the Eastern Caribbean Islands down the road or not.

Absolutely Luis, let's see what could happen during the next couple of days even if the season is just starting...

[Gustywind]

From a correspondant of Barbados...sniffing something at the horizon
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... ados.shtml
Invest 92L
By Lemuel Taylor <lem_rt at hotmail.com>
Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2010 22:01:11 +0000

The first area of relevance to us in the Lesser Antilles has formed at roughly 6N 34W. This is perhaps one of the most easterly and southerly of tropical invests (areas of disturbed weather with potential to become tropical cyclones). A few of the models suggest that this may develop at least to tropical storm strength. Either way, it looks like some heavy weather in about 5-7 days for some part of the Caribbean.
Since this is June, it does no bode well for us in the Caribbean, it means there may be a lot more CV type systems in our path. Bad memories of Ivan, Emily, Lili, and the list goes on. Let's all pray for God's divine protection as we watch this potential threat.
LEM

- EATL Wave
By Lemuel Taylor <lem_rt at hotmail.com>
Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2010 14:34:24 +0000

It appears that a wave near 8N 35W has an associated area of low pressure. Thunderstorm activity has been slowly on the increase in the last few hours. This wave in it's current environment has potential for development. The only mitigating factor which should stop it from occurring is about 30knots of windshear at about 45W stretching to the Islands. Either way, such activity so early coming from Africa is not a good sign for the rest of the season.
LEM

[msbee]

just got this from NWS:

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
Sat, 12 Jun 2010 18:38:50 -0500



000
ABNT20 KNHC 122338
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS
EVENING. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

Thanks Barbara to keep us informed as usual...

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 130014 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

CORRECTION IN ORDER TO UPDATE THE SECTION WITH THE
TITLE THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/38W TO THE SOUTH OF
13N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THE WAVE WAS COINCIDING WITH A BULGE
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS BEEN RE-FORMING
DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 31W AND 35W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN
30W AND 35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

[cycloneye]

Here are the tracks of the models tonight.Is still very early to say if any island(s) may be impacted by this system.For now,lets continue to watch the progress of the system.

[Gustywind]

92L

[cycloneye]

Good morning.We keep watching what is going on with invest 92L.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
451 AM AST SUN JUN 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE AZORES
ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
LEVEL TROUGH...JUST ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS DURING THE REST OF
THE MORNING HOURS. IN FACT...LATER RADAR OBSERVATIONS...INDICATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS.

EXPECT THE LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS DURING THE AFTERNOONS...MAINLY OVER THE
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. DRY AIR AT MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL ADVECT INTO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AND BEHIND
THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.

NUMERICAL MODELS KEEP ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA FOR THE
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE PREVAILING TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FA WILL FAVOR EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ACROSS
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BUT
HOT AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS ACROSS ONE
OR TWO OF THE ISLANDS.

THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 37 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
APPROACH TO THE REGION NEXT FRIDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...QUICK PASSING VCTS/SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EN ROUTE TO
AND ACROSS MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR TJMZ THROUGH 13/12Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PDS OF MVFR. IN ADDITION... MTN TOPS OBSCR PSBL ACROSS
EAST INTERIOR SECTION OF PR MAINLY OVR PICO DEL ESTE DUE TO PASSING
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHRA. DURG THE AFTN BTW 13/17-1322Z SHRA/TSRA
DVLPMNT PSBL ACROSS WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR RESULTING IN TEMPO
MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. BRIEF SFC WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY
DEVELOPING STORMS DURG THE AFTN. VFR CONDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE FOR
THE REST OF TODAY.

[Gustywind]

From a correspondant of St Croix about 92L...

- Eye On A Potential Storm!
By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2010 22:01:09 -0500

Attention, Neighbors!

In case you have not noticed. There is a broad area of disturbed weather to our east which has the potential, though low at the moment, of slowly developing "in the next 48 hours". Normally, I would not think too much of it, because it is quite low as well; however, all the comp. models except for one has it coming in our direction. Considering the predictions for the season, it is not too early for a TS or even a Hurricane to form. The farther away these systems start developing the larger they can become. The SST has been quite warm since early in the year, making anything out there a potential risk. We must keep an eye on this system, especially since it seems to be heading in this direction in the long run, unless wind shear tears it apart.

We need not worry about anything, if we are ready for everything. We should have been ready a long time ago. Let this system be an alert for all of us. We don't know what it is capable of in the course of the next week, probably by the end of next week, if not sooner, according to some weather bloggers. All we can do is pray and hope that it fizzles as we hope with all of them, but that is simply wishful thinking. We are in the forecast this season as having a land falling storm, where in the Caribbean, no one knows. That is why it is so important to prepare early. Have a good night, enjoy the World Cup, or the Mango Melee, or the beach tomorrow and may God bless us all.

Isabel

[Gustywind]

Code Orange for 92 L
000
ABNT20 KNHC 130521
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
ALTHOUGH CYCLONE FORMATIONS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ARE
QUITE RARE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Improving system with a nice complex of tstorms given my untrained eyes i have to admit...

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Latest TWD on 92L...
000
AXNT20 KNHC 130556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT AND LARGELY REMAINING E OF 20W.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN 700-850 MB TROUGH AXIS NW OF THE
WAVE MOVING OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THIS EVENING. AS TYPICAL
WITH THE LOSS OF MAXIMUM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING USUALLY LOCATED
OVER LAND...THE WAVE LACKS AND SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
COAST AND INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 07N-16N BETWEEN 12W-17W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT. THE
WAVE LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN
24W-40W. THE WAVE IS ALSO WEST OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A
1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 06N31W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N BETWEEN 29W-40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

[msbee]

FROM CROWN WEATHER:

Issued: Sunday, June 13, 2010 825 am EDT/725 am CDT

For Maps, Images and Graphics On Invest 92-L, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325.

Discussion
Invest 92-L Located In The Eastern Atlantic: If this is what the rest of this hurricane season holds, then it's going to be a very, very long and potentially dangerous season!! I am closely monitoring an area of low pressure, labeled Invest 92-L, which is located about 900 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands (8 North Latitude, 32.5 West Longitude). This tropical disturbance is nearing tropical depression status. Satellite imagery this morning showed Invest 92-L becoming better and better organized with each new satellite frame and I think it may be upgraded to Tropical Depression status by this evening or at the very latest early Monday morning. In fact, it may reach tropical storm strength (its name would be Alex) sometime during Monday.

Analysis of this system showed that environmental conditions are favorable for development and intensification as we have very warm sea surface temperatures, good outflow, plenty of moisture and low wind shear values. The latest model guidance is forecasting that the low wind shear values will continue for the next 2 to 3 days and thus they are forecasting 92-L to be a 50 to 70 mph tropical storm in about 3 to 4 days. After that, weakening is forecast by the model guidance due to increasing wind shear values as this system closes in on the Lesser Antilles in 6 days. My take is that we are looking at slow, but steady intensification over the next few days and I expect that we may be looking at a 50 mph tropical storm around Tuesday or at the latest Wednesday.

The latest model track guidance is showing a west-northwest track over the next 2 to 3 days. The model guidance may actually be a bit too far north in their forecast tracks. The reason why I think this is because currently there is a large trough of low pressure located near 50 West Longitude. This trough should lift over the next few days and this will give way to a ridge of high pressure. This weather pattern would favor a west-northwest track over the next several days and the consequences are that this system will be near the Lesser Antilles by about Friday. All interests in the Lesser Antilles should keep close tabs on this system.

It should be noted that the long range GFS model is forecasting plenty of activity across the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone over the next 2 weeks. The combination of this, strong high pressure to the north and a diffluent wind flow aloft could lead to additional tropical cyclone development between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa over the next 2 to 3 weeks. Also, satellite imagery this morning showed another strong tropical wave located over western Africa that should emerge in the eastern Atlantic over the next day or two. So, like I said at the beginning of this discussion, if this is what the rest of this hurricane season is going to be like, then strap in, because it's going to be one hell of a bad hurricane season!!

So, in closing, Invest 92-L looks better organized with each new satellite frame and with sea surface temperatures well above average and environmental conditions that are favorable; I would say development into a tropical depression is very possible by this evening or at the latest Monday morning, if it remains well organized.

One Last Item Of Interest: The annual Eastern US Weather Forums conference is being held this weekend in Baltimore, Maryland. Unfortunately, I could not attend; anyways, Stacy Stewart from the National Hurricane Center spoke yesterday and had some interesting comments.

They include:
His personal prediction of 17 named storms, 12 hurricanes and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index of 200 plus.

Very active early season, mid to late July. Also we may be looking at late and strong Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico systems due to very warm sea surface temperatures and also activity shifts west later in the season.

The Mantra at the NHC is GO SHEAR!

This topic can be viewed at: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php ... 32840&st=0

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 6 am EDT/5 am CDT Monday morning. If Invest 92-L is upgraded to a tropical depression today or this evening, then I will post an update to this discussion.

[cycloneye]

I like this from them Hopefully,shear gets it before it reaches the Antilles.

The Mantra at the NHC is GO SHEAR!