ATL : INVEST 92L - MODELS

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

I would be surprise either PT...Dean and Felix were early birds....Alex on the way IMO.....funny how the GFS only showed a wave out of this for the past 4 days. CMC picked it up first then the NOGAPS...

Come to think of it, 2005 had not many Cape Verde hurricanes, besides Emily, but they were rather early in the season.

07 Dean and Felix come to mind...think they were in July though..

Sorry, in 2007 Dean formed on August 13 and Felix formed on August 31.

[ROCK]

I stand corrected....I sure thought those cat 5s into Central America were earlier than that...need to brush up on my history....or maybe research before I type..

[ROCK]

once we get a definite center I look at the EURO for future track along with the GFS...ok not so much the GFS.....

[Plant grower]

This looks like a dangores storm. Dies anyone think it might go up the coast and Survive the shear?

Dangerous I though shear was suppose kill it. Are we looking at a sneak attack here?

[Cdeck81]

Hmmm... NHC isn't even classifying it as a tropical cyclone. I was surprised to see it as an invest when I logged on just now.

[Hurricane Andrew]

They will..in time. I belive this has the potentail to be an east coast threatener.

[Ivanhater]

HWRF IN 2 DAYS

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL

First run of GFDL shows more NW track than the BAMMS.

WHXX04 KWBC 122320
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUN 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 5.9 31.0 275./ 8.9
6 7.3 32.0 324./16.6
12 7.6 33.1 284./11.6
18 7.9 34.5 284./13.9
24 8.1 34.5 332./ 1.7
30 8.6 35.8 294./14.0
36 9.1 36.5 302./ 8.3
42 9.7 36.9 331./ 7.5
48 10.8 37.8 321./13.7
54 11.8 38.8 314./13.8
60 12.6 39.8 309./13.6
66 13.4 40.9 305./12.9
72 14.2 42.5 298./17.1
78 14.9 43.4 304./11.5
84 15.3 44.9 285./14.9
90 16.3 46.2 309./16.2
96 16.6 47.4 284./12.0
102 16.9 48.5 282./10.9
108 17.0 49.7 274./11.2
114 17.8 50.7 310./12.4
120 18.5 51.8 304./12.5
126 18.8 52.6 291./ 8.6

[Dean4Storms]

HWRF IN 2 DAYS

WOW!!!!

[xironman]

For shear, play this animation and watch the anti-cyclone retrograde http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2010061218&field=850-200mb+Shear&hour=Animation

[cycloneye]

A minimal hurricane (80kts) is the maximun intensity of GFDL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Dean4Storms]

GFDL 18z........


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[x-y-no]

They will..in time. I belive this has the potentail to be an east coast threatener.

You need to provide some kind of meteorological reasoning to back this up. (And frankly I don't see what there could be in this case.) We don't encourage baseless predictions around here.

[ronjon]

18Z HWRF:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010061218-invest92l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[brunota2003]

80.1 knot hurricane, with a pressure of only 1000.3 mb? Um?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Notice on the HWRF for the 18Z it seems to turn to the W at the end. That leads me to belive it is possible for it to turn to the east coast and strengthen.

[cycloneye]

80.1 knot hurricane, with a pressure of only 1000.3 mb? Um?

Something fishy right?

[brunota2003]

80.1 knot hurricane, with a pressure of only 1000.3 mb? Um?

Something fishy right?

Most definitely! Haha, the HWRF has it at 990, with 76 knot winds, which is a little closer to what I'd expect. What are the background pressures? Aren't they already lower than normal?

[Macrocane]

Come to think of it, 2005 had not many Cape Verde hurricanes, besides Emily, but they were rather early in the season.

Irene and Maria were also Cape Verde hurricanes, though 3 out of 28 storms is a low number. It would be interesting to see if this season is like 2005 with a low proportion of Cape Verde systems or like 1998 with a high proportion.

[cycloneye]

00:00 UTC Run

Moving west at 9kts.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical/guidance/

WHXX01 KWBC 130055
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0055 UTC SUN JUN 13 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100613 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100613 0000 100613 1200 100614 0000 100614 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 6.4N 31.9W 7.4N 34.1W 8.6N 36.2W 9.9N 38.4W
BAMD 6.4N 31.9W 7.0N 34.8W 7.9N 37.4W 8.8N 40.1W
BAMM 6.4N 31.9W 7.1N 34.6W 8.0N 37.1W 9.1N 39.6W
LBAR 6.4N 31.9W 6.8N 34.3W 8.0N 37.1W 8.9N 40.0W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 47KTS 60KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 47KTS 60KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100615 0000 100616 0000 100617 0000 100618 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 40.5W 12.6N 45.6W 14.1N 50.5W 15.2N 55.4W
BAMD 9.8N 42.6W 11.6N 47.3W 13.8N 50.9W 15.6N 52.8W
BAMM 10.1N 41.7W 11.3N 46.6W 12.7N 51.5W 13.8N 55.5W
LBAR 10.5N 43.1W 13.8N 48.3W 16.5N 50.3W 20.6N 47.7W
SHIP 70KTS 76KTS 68KTS 57KTS
DSHP 70KTS 76KTS 68KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 6.4N LONCUR = 31.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 6.2N LONM12 = 30.1W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 6.1N LONM24 = 28.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM