ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[ROCK]

After analyzing some of the Hi-Res satellite images this evening it certainly appears as though this system is becoming better organized. In fact latest images clearly depict deep convection firing over what appears to be the developing center.

agree..here is another closeup..

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

[Ivanhater]

Looking good...

[cycloneye]

Looking good...

Ivan,is that image at the NRL site as 92L is still not there?

[Ivanhater]

Luis, Good question. That image was posted on another site and use to loop, now its not. Let me post another loop.

[RL3AO]

I'd be stunned if it developed, but anything can happen.

[ROCK]

Ivan, you guys are also under the gun if you get something come your way...Your storm surge multiplier for AL,MS, and FL Panhandle is around 1.0-1.5....cant even imagine a IKE like surge pushing all that oil into the coastal communities....

[Dean4Storms]

Very impressive wave. Decent convection and some rotation. If the convection retains overnight then we could have a player IMO.

[Ivanhater]

Ivan, you guys are also under the gun if you get something come your way...Your storm surge multiplier for AL,MS, and FL Panhandle is around 1.0-1.5....cant even imagine a IKE like surge pushing all that oil into the coastal communities....

I hear that Rock, it's been sometime since the horrific surge from Ivan. Bad thing about this season , it looks like many coastal cities and communities are going to be under the gun. High tomorrow is 99 for an unusual early summer heat wave. Gulf is baking!

[Ivanhater]

What is the date?!

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 122338
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS
EVENING. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

[x-y-no]

I'd be real pleased to see the HWRF/GFDL scenario verify - NW movement, quick intensification - a nice little fishy hurricane to start the season.

I expect it to stay more southerly and weaker, though.

[AdamFirst]

A (legitimate) Cape Verde invest in early June.

It's gonna be a long year folks.

[Ivanhater]

Impressive development today

6 hours ago



Now

[Dean4Storms]

I'd be real pleased to see the HWRF/GFDL scenario verify - NW movement, quick intensification - a nice little fishy hurricane to start the season.

I expect it to stay more southerly and weaker, though.

I don't know, way too early to say if they verified that this would be a fish.

[wxman57]

I'm enjoying my last weekend off until December...

Although I don't think that this system will make it (develop), it's a bad sign as far as the seasonal forecasts verifying. Bad meaning the forecasts will probably verify.

[x-y-no]

I'd be real pleased to see the HWRF/GFDL scenario verify - NW movement, quick intensification - a nice little fishy hurricane to start the season.

I expect it to stay more southerly and weaker, though.

I don't know, way too early to say if they verified that this would be a fish.

They have it gaining a lot of latitude fast and there will be a weakness ahead for a developed system to turn into, so I'm pretty confident that scenario would mean fish storm.

[CrazyC83]

Has there ever been a true Cape Verde storm in June?

[brunota2003]

I will admit that this is pretty cool to watch, with it being so far out. Hopefully it'll develop into a small storm for us all to track and refresh our memories after nearly a year off since we last really had something to track (and stay a fishy!)