ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

The most recent ASCAT pass made at 7:48 PM EDT but only caught a small part of the circulation.

[wxman57]

I'm enjoying my last weekend off until December...

Although I don't think that this system will make it (develop), it's a bad sign as far as the seasonal forecasts verifying. Bad meaning the forecasts will probably verify.

Interesting to see some things never change...that being you claiming everything won't develop...and whatever you say will develop immediately falling apart

I Kid. But seriously...this thing has been doing nothing but intensify...are you discrediting the HWRF,EURO and GFDL runs that are now calling for development, as well as the SHIPS?

Thunderstorms are becoming more concentrated, a sign of increasing organization. It would be unusual for the SHIPS NOT to intensify a disturbance. As for the GFDL, it does show a brief intensification followed by weakening. It doesn't tend to do well with such weak systems to start with. I think it does have a shot at developing over the next few days before running into increasing shear. Probably better than the 20% NHC is giving it (but that's just for today and tomorrow). I'm giving it 40% now.

[cycloneye]

Finnally,invest 92L is at the Navy site.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

[alan1961]

I'm enjoying my last weekend off until December...

Although I don't think that this system will make it (develop), it's a bad sign as far as the seasonal forecasts verifying. Bad meaning the forecasts will probably verify.

Interesting to see some things never change...that being you claiming everything won't develop...and whatever you say will develop immediately falling apart

I Kid. But seriously...this thing has been doing nothing but intensify...are you discrediting the HWRF,EURO and GFDL runs that are now calling for development, as well as the SHIPS?

Thunderstorms are becoming more concentrated, a sign of increasing organization. It would be unusual for the SHIPS NOT to intensify a disturbance. As for the GFDL, it does show a brief intensification followed by weakening. It doesn't tend to do well with such weak systems to start with. I think it does have a shot at developing over the next few days before running into increasing shear. Probably better than the 20% NHC is giving it (but that's just for today and tomorrow). I'm giving it 40% now.

So its haircut time for 92L in a few days time then wxman57?

[Weatherfreak000]

I'm enjoying my last weekend off until December...

Although I don't think that this system will make it (develop), it's a bad sign as far as the seasonal forecasts verifying. Bad meaning the forecasts will probably verify.

Interesting to see some things never change...that being you claiming everything won't develop...and whatever you say will develop immediately falling apart

I Kid. But seriously...this thing has been doing nothing but intensify...are you discrediting the HWRF,EURO and GFDL runs that are now calling for development, as well as the SHIPS?

Thunderstorms are becoming more concentrated, a sign of increasing organization. It would be unusual for the SHIPS NOT to intensify a disturbance. As for the GFDL, it does show a brief intensification followed by weakening. It doesn't tend to do well with such weak systems to start with. I think it does have a shot at developing over the next few days before running into increasing shear. Probably better than the 20% NHC is giving it (but that's just for today and tomorrow). I'm giving it 40% now.

I agree. I personally felt it went from 15% to around 40%...


Two other questions because I dont have visibles obviously...do you agree that although the convection is increasing the circulation has gotten no better organized...and how do you feel about a potential hurricane forecast? What would have to happen for that to verify..i'm assuming an anticyclone

[OuterBanker]

Been out of town for a week plus (home to pgh), had so much going on I really didn't pay attention. But I must say that I'm impressed. I don't think anything last year looked this good this far east in August, much less June. Don't think it has a snowballs chance west of 50 which is common this time of year. Also, think that this could be a bad omen for things to come.

[Vortex]

latest satellite images(145 utc) continue to indicate a system becoming better organized by the hour. Impressive.

[canetracker]

Vortex can you post a link to the latest sat images you are looking at?

[lester]

latest satellite images(145 utc) continue to indicate a system becoming better organized by the hour. Impressive.

Maybe the hwrf is right LOL

[Aquawind]

When the systems are that far out they do need solid data before they make a call without recon..It really does look impressive and I agree it does not look good for the season.

[SFLcane]

Vortex can you post a link to the latest sat images you are looking at?

Here you go. EUMETSAT

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/PRODUCTS/MPE/AMERICA/

[ronjon]

Latest IR SAT 0145 UTC:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tropics_pages/single/atlantic/tropics/ir/Full/Latest.html

[SFLcane]

02:00 UTC

[OURAGAN]

Latest 1:30Z

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

[cycloneye]

I am going to say that after seeing the last few hours of images,at the 2 AM TWO,they will increase the % to 50 and the color will be orange. What do the peeps think?

[lester]

I am going to say that after seeing the last few hours of images,at the 2 AM TWO,they will increase the % to 50 and the color will be orange. What do the peeps think?

I agree it definitely has a shot at going "code orange", if not at 2 then maybe sometime tomorrow.

[canetracker]

Vortex can you post a link to the latest sat images you are looking at?

Here you go. EUMETSAT

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/PRODUCTS/MPE/AMERICA/

Thanks a bunch. : )

[Aquawind]

Any T Numbers yet? I can't find my link..

Orange sounds reasonable.

[SFLcane]

I am going to say that after seeing the last few hours of images,at the 2 AM TWO,they will increase the % to 50 and the color will be orange. What do the peeps think?

I'd say theres a desent chance at orange later tonight as this waves satellite appearance has been steadily improving through the evening.

[cycloneye]

Any T Numbers yet? I can't find my link..

Orange sounds reasonable.

No numbers yet.Link here.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html